#$ua

[estimize]

[Podcast] Estimize Roundtable: Winners and Losers of the Health Care Reform Breakdown

This week on the Estimize Roundtable, Estimize’s CEO, Leigh Drogen, and SVP of Media, Christine Short, are joined by Joe McCann, the CEO and Co­Founder of Slingshot Insights and Nick Colas, Chief Market Strategist at Convergex. With the failure to pass health care reform two weeks ago, the roundtable talks about where we go from here, who the biggest winners and losers of the breakdown are, the general state of the health care industry, and which names to watch this upcoming earnings season.

Be sure to subscribe to the Estimize Roundtable on iTunes!

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Nike Prepares for Dismal Results Ahead of Quarterly Report

Nike Inc (NKE) Consumer Discretionary - Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Reports March 21, After Market Closes

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is looking for earnings of 55 cents per share on $8.47 billion in revenue, 3 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top

Management’s decision to discontinue reporting future orders puts additional pressure on margins to excel

Increased competition from Under Armour and Adidas as well as a rapidly changing retail environment puts pressure on Nike to innovate and expand globally

What are you expecting for NKE? Get your estimate in here!

Nike headlines a slow week of earnings with its highly anticipated fiscal third quarter report tomorrow afternoon.  Dismal reports from Under Armour and other footwear retailers this earnings season portends pressure to the downside for Nike’s announcement. As a result analysts at Estimize cut earnings estimates 11 percent and revenue 2 percent from previous forecasts at the end of the fiscal second quarter. Despite some obvious near term headwinds the stock jumped 15.2 percent higher in the past 3 months and historically performs well immediately through an earnings report

The Estimize consensus data earnings of 55 cents per share, reflecting a 3% increase from a year earlier. Revenue for the period is forecasted to increase 5% to $8.47 billion, marking steady mid single digit revenue growth for 8 consecutive quarters. The fiscal second quarter restored investors faith that Nike can somewhat stave off increasing competition, namely from Adidas, while still maintaining margins and future orders growth. In the three month period ending in November, gross profit came in at $3.62 billion with 44.2 percent margins. Future orders, on the other hand, slipped 4 percent in North America but still posted overall growth of 2 percent on a constant currency basis.  Management also reveal that it would discounting reporting future order figures, making margins all that more important moving forward.

With Adidas, Under Armour and Lululemon all making strides in the retail industry, Nike faces an uphill battle to remain king of the mountain. Nike’s clear market share lead, superb brand reputation and ongoing prowess for innovation and design will help maintain a significant gap between the competition. However growth opportunities in domestic markets are running out as Nike controls over 50% of the market in all major sporting segment. The best case for Nike is to expand global shares in Europe and Asia where its presence it doesn’t hold as pronounced presence.

Do you think NKE can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

Photo Credit: Rafael Castillo

[mikebellafiore]

The trading setup that turned one trader into a 7-figure trader

Thursday we held an online class for our trading community: The trading setup that turned one trader into a 7-figure trader. The replay of this class can be found below in HD video.

Here is what you will learn from this class:

The trading setup that catapulted a floundering developing trader into a 7-figure trader

The path this trader traversed from new to 7-figure trader, which will surprise some

Access to questions and answers from the live audience

An introduction to your opportunity to train with us and learn 10 setups in 10 weeks with The Winning Trader

For those who watch the replay and have trading questions, please feel free to email me- [email protected].

* no relevant positions

[estimize]

Sentiment Indicator Slides for These 3 Discretionary Stocks

Each week Forcerank administers a handful of contests designed to answer one simple question: will stock ABC perform better than stock XYZ this week? After extensive testing, we confirmed that the consensus rankings delivered a high persistence of accuracy. Using a market neutral strategy the data produced 19% annualized returns with a resounding 2.75 Sharpe Ratio. By looking at changes in the data, Forcerank acts as a sentiment indicator that can help investors gauge the market’s mood on a weekly basis. Visit the Forcerank Blog or sign up for next week’s contests to receive the consensus data Monday morning.

Nike (NKE) | Apparel: Nike shares dropped almost 20% last year amid a broad bounceback of Adidas and the continued surge of Under Armour. The increased competition presents a serious challenge to fundamentals but also pushed investors away from the industry leader. Some of these concerns dissipated after Nike reported surprisingly strong fiscal second quarter results in late December. But coming into 2017 the biggest concern will be whether Nike can build on its recent report or revert back to struggling. A breakdown in technicals and a sliding Forcerank sentiment support the latter possibility. The open gap just below $51.50 represents a 2.5% downside from its current trading price with worsening OBV reinforcing the decline. To top it off the Forcerank sentiment indicator edged lower over the past few weeks, a signal of weak price action on the horizon.

Fitbit (FIT) | Hardware: Fitbit holds the title for one of the worst performing stocks in 2016. Over the year, shares declined by about 75% after consecutive quarterly reports fell short of analyst’s expectations. Management made the situation worse in the third quarter when it cut guidance for the pivotal holiday season. This event alone caused shares to plummet by over 30%. Shareholders wishing Fitbit can get off to a fresh start in 2017 are in for a rude awakening. A lack of fundamental and technical support heading into earnings season typically spells trouble for any stock. Negative MACD and On Balance Volume along with a bearish turn in Parabolic SAR reflect heightened  downside risk.

Tesla (TSLA) | Most Heavily Shorted: Tesla drove away with the last 3 months of 2016 after posting the first profitable quarter in the company’s existence. Tesla has long been known for over promising and under delivering but this time seems different. Investors continue to flood the stock in the hope that the Model 3, set to release in Summer 2017, can push sales higher. With buying activity at a recent high, the stock is on the verge of reaching overbought territory. The 14 day RSI is currently at 74 while shares trade in the upper Bollinger Band, meaning a correction is on the horizon. Meanwhile, the Forcerank sentiment improved compared to previous weeks but also supports a downturn looming in the shadows.

Enter Contests Now

Photo Credit: Daniel Go

This article was originally published in Forcerank on January 11, 2017. To learn more visit the Forcerank website or download the app.

[estimize]

5 Stocks to Watch for End of Year Gains

Each week Forcerank runs a variety of games covering different industries. What we have found, is that the top three ranked companies in their respective games deliver the biggest positive price movement for that week. This week the winners feature popular names like Under Armour (UA) and Amazon (AMZN). To receive the rest of the rankings, visit the Forcerank Blog or sign up for next week’s contests and we will send you the consensus data Monday morning.

Under Armour (UA) | Apparel: Under Armour is running away with this week’s apparel contest, sporting an average ranking of 3.67, higher than both Nike and Lululemon. Forcerank users are confident that the fitness company can turnaround its misfortunes which started after management reported that 2017 wouldn’t be as profitable as previous years. Investors responded with a swift sell off, leaving Under Armour as the worst performing stock amongst its peers in 2016. Very little is working in Under Armour’s favor lately but the case can be made that the worst is over. Gap traders see the 3 gaps above as an opportunity to buy low and sell high. If its reaches each step that would mean shares jumped 62% from where they are currently trading. Meanwhile shares look poised to bounce higher after taking out three levels of resistance in December.

Southwest Airlines (LUV) | Airlines: After a lackluster third quarter report and subsequent sell off, Southwest received a huge boost when Donald Trump won the election. Trump’s stance on most issues is to deregulate and isolate which experts believe will greatly benefit the U.S. airlines. On top of this the current consumer environment that clings to value channel and discounters already favors Southwest. Since the election shares have jumped nearly 22% and don’t appear to be pulling back anytime soon. Just last week Barclay’s initiated coverage on the airline with an equal weighting and $65 price target, reflecting an additional 27% upside from its current trading price. Meanwhile near peaks in On Balance Volume and a MACD on the verge of a bullish crossover bode well for shareholders.

Amazon (AMZN) | Ecommerce: Amazon solidifies its stranglehold on the ecommerce contest this week with an impressive average user rank of 2.5, down from 4 the previous week. The stock a roadblock late in the year thanks to the Trump victory and a weaker than expected third quarter. That said, the retailer appears to be heading in the right direction now. Amazon Go, a booming holiday season and a whole list of other initiatives will help revitalize fundamentals after a down quarter. Meanwhile the 20 day moving average looks poised to take over the shorter 50 day average in the coming days while the MACD makes waves on positive territory. Shareholders can also look at the gap at $815 as an additional 5-6% from its current trading price.

Disney (DIS) | Media: In case you were unaware, Disney released its newest blockbuster hit Rogue One last week, which is already being touted as the 4th billion dollar movie produced by Disney this year. Disney is clearly leaning on its studios and theme parks lately to offset the mounting losses generated by ESPN. This likely explains why shares struggled during an earnings report but pop following a movie release. With a list of new blockbusters on deck, investors should expect the stock to follow a similar pattern in 2017. It also means that the current run will be short lived. Rogue One will likely remain relevant until the turn of the new year and then begin to wane in popularity along with share prices. From a technical standpoint the stock has more room to run given the newly formed peaks in OBV and MACD indicators.

GoPro (GPRO) | Hardware: It's a rare occasion when GoPro appears on a list of weekly winners, but after reports that hollidays sales exceeded expectations shares have trudged higher. Between Black Friday and the rest of the holiday season, camera unit sales were up by more than 35% with a majority of the sales coming from the HERO 5 and Karma Drone. The action camera maker now sports an average user rank of 5 flat, after weeks with a 6 or 7 ranking. While technicals support greater downside, any fundamental improvement will help the recovery process.

Click Here to play next week’s contests and access the highly predictive consensus rankings before the competition!

Photo Credit: Ivan

This article was originally published in Forcerank on December 22, 2016. To learn more visit the Forcerank website or download the app.

[estimize]

2 Stocks to Watch After the Market Closes Today

Nike (NKE): Nike headlines a slow week of earnings with its fiscal second quarter report tomorrow after the market closes. The rise of Lululemon and Under Armour have put considerable pressure on Nike’s results lately. As a result, revenue figures missed analyst’s estimates in 3 of the past 4 quarters. More importantly future orders and margin growth continue to come in weaker. Due to frequent discounting, key financial metrics will remain challenged moving forward. In the past Nike brand power could sell $150 shoes with no problem, but today’s consumer environment favors value channels. Analyst’s at Estimize believe many of these factors will contribute to slower earnings and revenue growth. A particularly bad report will add to the stock’s 20% losses in the past 12 months.

Fedex (FDX): FedEx currently reports thee core financial segments; Express, Ground and Freight. At the moment, Express has been the standout performer accounting for 40% of the company’s operating income followed by Ground and Freight. FedEx Express is the fastest and most expensive mode of delivery which makes the biggest contributions to income and margins. Ground, on the other hand, is seeing the greatest upside thanks to rising demand for ecommerce purchases. For the first quarter, the ground segment reported revenue of 4.29 billion, 12% higher than a year earlier. FedEx also announced they would be raising prices by about 3.9% across all of its shipping segments. This will likely push margins higher for future quarters if it doesn’t adversely impact sales. Meanwhile, the integration of TNT Express will drive sales growth higher moving forward.

How do you think these names will report? Be included in the Estimize consensus by contributing your estimates here!

[estimize]

Sell These 5 Stocks Now Before It's Too Late

Each week Forcerank runs a variety of games covering different industries. What we have found, is that the lowest ranked companies in their respective games deliver the biggest negative price movement and vice versa for those in the top position. This week we look at a list of companies that are consistently at the bottom or trending lower in their respective games. To receive the rest of the rankings, visit the Forcerank Blog or sign up for next week’s contests and we will send you the consensus data Monday morning.

Panera (PNRA) | Restaurants: This year has been a difficult one for the fast casual industry which continues to lose market share to fast food and casual dining establishments. Panera has shared in the industry wide downturn despite a series of better than expected earnings reports. The 7% gains that Panera stock made this year pales in comparison to the 11% jump by the S&P 500. Shares should continue to see increasing downside driven by bearish support from technical indicators. A drop to negative territory by On Balance Volume couples with a bearish crossover in the MACD both support negative price action in the coming days/weeks. Meanwhile basic gap trading would view the gap at $202 as a 3% downside from its current trading price.

GoPro (GPRO) | Hardware: What’s a list of potential losers without GoPro or Fitbit. Needless to say, GoPro is one of the most beaten down stocks in recent months, owing to a disastrous third quarter that missed analysts’ targets by a wide margin but also featured reduced management guidance for the key holiday months. It's clear that the Karma Drone and Hero 5, GoPro’s newest products, aren’t living up to their lofty expectations. Forcerank users remain bearish on the stock, pushing its average user rank lower and lower each week. This week the action camera maker sports a rank of 8.1, which is quite possibly the worst grade in the history of Forcerank. Most of the downside continues to be supported by a breakdown in its technicals. Last week was capped off with the 200 day moving average taking over the 50 day average while on balance volume turned negative. Throughout its downturn, the stock has breached multiple important support levels.

VMware (VMW) | Large Enterprise Software: The Forcerank community continues to believe VMware will retrace the gains made after reporting sound third quarter results. In that time, VMware also partnered with Amazon and received several bullish analyst upgrades. Shares have stayed in the upper Bollinger band for over a month now, reflecting overbought conditions. Additionally the stock’s 3 months volume profile is consistent with $73 per share or 9% downside from its current trading price. Given VMware’s robust underlying fundamentals, the potential negative momentum may not be long lived but should still be considered by investors or traders.

Ctrip (CTRP) | Ecommerce: Travel services in China are expected to be one of the fastest growing industries in the region but that hasn’t helped Ctrip investors. The stock is down 10% in the past 3 months on a number of weak earnings reports. In two of the past 3 quarters the Chinese travel agency posted a quarterly loss over 15 cents per share. Shares still continue to trade at 105 times future earnings, a difficult measure to justify given its weak underlying fundamentals. In addition to weak financial performance, Ctrip operates in an increasingly competitive space that includes Alibaba and Baidu.

Skechers (SKX) | Apparel: It wasn’t long ago that Skechers stock jumped 20% in a single week and now the shoemaker ranks in the bottom three of the apparel game. Fundamentally speaking, Skechers still remains challenged given the evolving retail environment and increasing competition from Nike and Under Armour. The Estimize community believes the fourth quarter will extend its losing streak to three consecutive misses. In the meantime the stock should retrace some of its gains from the week prior with shares well beyond overbought territory.

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Photo Credit: samantha celera

This article was originally published in Forcerank on December 15, 2016. To learn more visit the Forcerank website or download the app.