#@cversed

[casuallyversed-blog]

Bloomberg's Top 20 Emerging Markets : 1 / China

Bloomberg Data:

Projected GDP Growth 2013-2017 : 45.9%

Inflation Rate : 3.0%

Gov. debt as a % of GDP : 14.9

Ease of doing business : ranked 91

Total score : 77.5

Of course it had to be China! The powerhouse came top in Bloomberg's top 20 emerging markets list, surprising very few. The story of China's emergence over the last 10-20 years has been magnificent, and now it stands today as potentially the most significant country in the world. 

I am going to refrain from writing about China, in the same way I wrote a little about the other 19 countries. Why? Well, because I am going to be lucky enough to actually experience China and it's business world first hand - next week!!!

For two months I will have the privilege of working within a company's finance team, on a two month internship. Based in Shanghai, I hope to fully immerse myself in all that China has to offer - and I'm sure I'll have an incredible time.

When I get back I will write an entry about my experience working in China, as well as applying my first hand experience to uncovering just why it is the top emerging market in the world.

Sources: Bloomberg

[casuallyversed-blog]

Bloomberg's Top 20 Emerging Markets : 3 / Thailand

Bloomberg Data:

Projected GDP Growth 2013-2017 : 25.9%

Inflation Rate : 2.7%

Gov. debt as a % of GDP : 49.4

Ease of doing business : ranked 18 

Total score : 58.7

So Thailand takes the bronze medal. 

FDI in the country has grown at a fantastic rate in recent years. Between 2000 and 2008 it grew at a rate of 12% per annum. 2007 saw a peak of $11bn, and in 2010 and 2011 it stood at $10bn. 

The economy was expected to expand by 6% in 2012, not bad given world wide occurrences. However this was mainly due to a 13.5% increase in fixed investment - focussed on buildings, factories, etc - after the devastating floods seen in 2011. For the period 2013-17 growth is expected to grow by 5.1% per annum. A large reason for this being due to a rise in private consumption (boosted by a rise in the minimum wage and subdues placed on significant items like rubber and rice). 

Tourism remains a very strong sector here. In 2011 it saw 19m visitors - up 20% from the previous year. It is a hotspot for tourists of all ages, from all over the world. The world class facilities found in resort areas also help attract more FDI.

Labour and land, when considered as inputs, are very competitive in Thailand compared to other countries in the region. They represent good value for money, attracting many investors. Coupled with a very diverse and welcoming culture, investors are also made to feel at home by the natives. 

Great business links to China and a good standard of infrastructure throughout the vas majority of the country, all help Thailand cement its place in this list.   

Sources: Bloomberg, Grant Thornton's Emerging Markets Index 2012

[casuallyversed-blog]

Bloomberg's Top 20 Emerging Markets : 4 / Peru

Bloomberg Data:

Projected GDP Growth 2013-2017 : 27.4%

Inflation Rate : 2.1%

Gov. debt as a % of GDP : 17.2

Ease of doing business : ranked 43 

Total score : 58.1

* See the first 2 paragraphs of entry 11-Colombia

Peru has seen exceptional growth over recent years, for example a staggering 7% in 2011. This has been down to great economic management by President Garcia (2006-2011) and now President Humala. Humala even pledged to increase public investment by 120% in 2012. They are also the 2nd freest economy in the region with respect to trade, coming second only to Chile.  

Expected growth in 2013 is projected to be around 6%, with a 6% and 5% rise to be seen in the Manufacturing and Agricultural sectors respectively. In 2011 FDI equated $7.6bn, and following a dip in 2012, the figure to expected to exceed $8bn for 2013. Growth and capital inflows have led to a vast rise in their international reserves, to around $60bn - almost 1/3 of GDP.

Mining is the traditional driver of the Peruvian economy, but Constriction and Retail (which saw 7% and 15% growth respectively in the 1st half of last year) have also enhanced this effort. So much so that it indicates the emergence and expansion of the new middle class - a benefit being that they have a bit more disposable income to spend on private consumption.

Finally, a very interesting factor is that it is actually provinces in and around Lima (the economic capital) that have  experienced better growth figures than Lima itself. All have seen a boom, and a a result all have seen even more foreign investment.   

Sources: Bloomberg, AMI

[casuallyversed-blog]

Bloomberg's Top 20 Emerging Markets : 5 / Czech Republic

Bloomberg Data:

Projected GDP Growth 2013-2017 : 21.1%

Inflation Rate : 2.0%

Gov. debt as a % of GDP : 45.5

Ease of doing business : ranked 65 

Total score : 53.8

This is the top European country in this list, and probably one of the most well developed countries too. With GDP per capita at $18,693 the quality of life here seems to be very good. However being based in the troublesome Eurozone, exposing it to falls in confidence over the strength of the currency and some of it's member country's economic health, the Czech Republic has suffered too. 

The main strength of the economy was its industrial and manufacturing sectors. Producing iron, steel, chemical products, textiles, and also agricultural produce, export figures were very high pre crisis. Understandably this has taken a blow in recent years, with expected manufacturing output figures anticipated to continue falling for the moment. However there is hope that in the years to come exports will pick up again - with demand stimulated from other emerging economies and other European economies. A long term issue might be the Czech Republic's dependence on the external sector (exports, external investment, external finance), and that an economic rebalance would be required since it would be hard to see those figures return to pre-crisis levels any time soon. 

Along with the Euro crisis, austerity measures have been put in place, leading to falls in household spending. This will consequently hurt domestic demand too. Another issue requiring attention is their ageing population. This brings problems of a smaller labour supply and a fall in labour productivity. However for the period 2015-16, the IMF has projected growth figures of around 3.4%.

Sources: Bloomberg, Ernst and Young Emerging Markets data

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Bloomberg's Top 20 Emerging Markets : 6 / Malaysia

Bloomberg Data:

Projected GDP Growth 2013-2017 : 21.8%

Inflation Rate : 2.5%

Gov. debt as a % of GDP : 54.6

Ease of doing business : ranked 12 

Total score : 51.4

Having travelled to Kuala Lumpur last year, I expected Malaysia to be fairly high up on this list. The horizon was littered with skyscraper after skyscraper. A new one being built on every corner. The streets were bustling with activity, and only designer shops seemed to exist amongst the many department stores. 

The economy has performed robustly over the last few years, with strong growths rates witnessed despite the global financial crisis. Here GDP per capita is around $15,590, representing a good living standard. Key factors to Malaysia's success has been their very stable financial sector, which managed to perform we through the crisis, whilst a pro-business attitude with respect to policies has constantly attracted investors. 

FDI between 2000 and 2008 grew by 8% per annum, peaking in 2007 at $9bn. Following a dip in 2009, the economy recovered with figures of $9bn and $12bn in 2010 and the year after. 

Exports are key to Malaysia's economy, accounting for 98% of GDP (with net exports equating to roughly 16% of GDP). Understandably this has been affected by the global slowdown, with world-wide demand falling in recent years. Much of the growth in forthcoming years will be pushed along by a growing middle class and more private consumption.    

Sources: Bloomberg, Grant Thornton's Emerging Markets Index 2012

[casuallyversed-blog]

Bloomberg's Top 20 Emerging Markets : 9 / Russia

Bloomberg Data:

Projected GDP Growth 2013-2017 : 26.6%

Inflation Rate : 6.5%

Gov. debt as a % of GDP : 11.6

Ease of doing business : ranked 112 

Total score : 49.9

It is among the top 10 largest economies in the world, and houses some of the globe's biggest natural gas and oil reserves. Russia has long been mentioned along the likes of Brazil, India and China as one of the top emerging economies. However despite a smaller consumer market, Russia has GDP per capita figures almost double those of China and four times those of India. 

FDI flowed rapidly during the years of 2000-2008. It peaked at 2008 with investments amounting to $75bn. Following a contraction of almost a half the next year, there was a recovery in 2011 where FDI was equal to $53bn. 

The economy's strength, and growth rates, are very closely tied to the price of natural commodities, gas and oil. It is these industries that have helped attract so much investment from overseas. 

However investments made in infrastructure have also been evident. Living standards have risen, as reflected by those high GDP per capita figures. Russia represents a good investment for the long term too. Many of its academics are well trained english speakers, educated in a system where literacy rates are exceptionally high. With a strong emphasis on science and technology, the country will produce a generation of intelligent and well respected workers. In conjunction to this they also have a strong manufacturing presence too.

Other strengths include a very unique geographical location. On onside lies Europe and on the other, Asia. The potential for trade is very promising, acting as a very significant gateway. Sporting events such as the 2014 Winter Olympics and the 2018 FIFA World Cup, will again see improvements in infrastructure and also tourism, with businesses left to reap the rewards after the events. Finally, after 19 months of negotiations, Russia were inducted in the World Trade Organisation. This is quite significant as it saw Russia reduce export tariffs from 13.2% to 10.8%, that should help to promote business globally. Securities should also perform better too, off the back of this news.

However, as in many emerging nations, the problem of crime, inequality and corruption are present enough to deter investors. 

  Sources: Bloomberg, Grant Thornton's Emerging Markets Index 2012

[casuallyversed-blog]

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NME