Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell at 115.30
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell at 115.30
Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79
Sell at 115.30, Target: 113.30, Stop: 115.90
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
As the single currency has retreated after rising to 115.68 yesterday, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and weakness to 114.00-10 cannot be ruled out, however, break of previous resistance at 113.91 is needed to signal top has been formed, bring further fall to 113.26 support. Once this level is penetrated, this would signal the rebound from 112.61 has ended, bring another fall towards this level later.
In view of this, we are looking to sell euro on recovery as 115.30-35 should limit upside and bring another decline later. Above indicated resistance at 115.68-79 would signal the rise form 112.61 is still in progress and may extend gain towards previous resistance at 116.28 later.
Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.
Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).
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