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Wintec's new posters got us thinking . 😜 #nofilter #noediting #national #labour #2014election #whosgonnawin #stopwintec #markflowers (at Wintec pay carpark )
2014 Taiwan Local Elections Post-Mortem: Taipei City District 2
Whilst all attention is on the DPP successes in the Municipal Mayoral and County Commissioner races, comparatively little has been said about the results of the city council elections, which were far less dramatic in terms of swings towards either the KMT or DPP. In my own district, this was the state of play before the vote:
PFP - 黃珊珊 - Huang Shan-shan - 19,765
KMT - 陳義洲 - Chen Yi-chou - 19,455
KMT - 吳世正 - Wu Shih-cheng - 18,615
DPP - 高嘉瑜 - Kao Chia-yu - 16,329
KMT - 李彥秀 - Lee Yen-hsiu - 12,147
DPP - 江志銘 - Jiang Zhi-ming - 11,359
DPP - 王孝維 - Wang Hsiao-wei - 11,191
DPP - 李建昌 - Lee Chien-chang - 10,262
KMT - 闕枚莎 - Chieh Mei-sha - 9,787
And this is how the field changed after the vote:
DPP - 高嘉瑜 - Kao Chia-yu - 34,117
PFP - 黃珊珊 - Huang Shan-shan - 28,020
KMT - 李彥秀 - Lee Yen-hsiu - 25,057
KMT - 闕枚莎 - Chieh Mei-sha - 19,956
KMT - 吳世正 - Wu Shih-cheng - 18,223
DPP - 李建昌 - Lee Chien-chang - 18,052
KMT - 陳義洲 - Chen Yi-chou - 17,693
DPP - 王孝維 - Wang Hsiao-wei - 17,401
DPP - 江志銘 - Jiang Zhi-ming - 14,592
The first thing of note is that every incumbent was re-elected. Here's three screenshots showing, in order, the total combined vote for District 2, and then the breakdowns for Neihu and Nanggang respectively ...
Those with a keen eye will immediately notice something strange - the vote totals. How is it that the winning candidate in 2010 got just under 20,000 votes but the winner yesterday had a total of 34,000?
The answer, always quite probable, lies in author error. I made the mistake of only counting the Neihu votes and voters.
Previously I stated that in the 2010 elections, District 2 had 201,841 registered voters, and a turnout of 71.38%, with 141,819 valid ballots cast.
Wrong!
Those figures were for Neihu only. Here's the CEC site illustrating my error:
In fact, in 2010, District 2 (2010) actually had a total 289,759 registered voters, a turnout of 71.38% in Neihu and 72.49% in Nanggang, with a total of 207,798 valid ballots cast. So let's have a look at those 2010 votes again, this time with all of them counted in order of most votes...
KMT - 李彥秀 - Lee Yen-hsiu - 27,592
PFP - 黃珊珊 - Huang Shan-shan - 25,518
KMT - 闕枚莎 - Chieh Mei-sha - 21,866
DPP - 高嘉瑜 - Kao Chia-yu - 21,798
KMT - 吳世正 - Wu Shih-cheng - 21,785
KMT - 陳義洲 - Chen Yi-chou - 20,492
DPP - 江志銘 - Jiang Zhi-ming - 17,672
DPP - 王孝維 - Wang Hsiao-wei - 16,867
DPP - 李建昌 - Lee Chien-chang - 13,863
And this is how the field changed after the vote:
DPP - 高嘉瑜 - Kao Chia-yu - 34,117
PFP - 黃珊珊 - Huang Shan-shan - 28,020
KMT - 李彥秀 - Lee Yen-hsiu - 25,057
KMT - 闕枚莎 - Chieh Mei-sha - 19,956
KMT - 吳世正 - Wu Shih-cheng - 18,223
DPP - 李建昌 - Lee Chien-chang - 18,052
KMT - 陳義洲 - Chen Yi-chou - 17,693
DPP - 王孝維 - Wang Hsiao-wei - 17,401
DPP - 江志銘 - Jiang Zhi-ming - 14,592
I don't have figures for total electoral or turnout in 2014 yet but I estimate about 218,900 legitimate ballots were cast which if true represents about an 11,000 extra votes from 2010 (about a 5% increase in turnout).
The big winner in terms of overall votes gained from 2010 is the DPP's Kao Chia-yu. For the DPP candidate to secure the most votes overall, if not a seismic shift, is certainly at least a minor political temblor given the solidly pan-blue demographic of support in Neihu and Nanggang. Kao gained an astonishing 12,319 votes.
The 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th placed candidates shuffled the deckchairs with Jiang Zhi-ming losing some ground whilst Lee Chien-chang gained around 5000 extra endorsements.
Most notable though is that female candidates had another excellent election, again taking all four top spots. This is clearly not about quotas, voters obviously more attracted to female candidates than their male peers.
As far as the parties are concerned, the DPP must feel encouraged by the result whilst the KMT will likely be slightly concerned by an ebbing away of their base vote in the DPP's favour. However, given the absolute drubbing the KMT Mayoral candidates received, these results are generally reassuring for the KMT, which has returned overall control of the City Council making the next four years of the Ko Mayorship an interesting contest for shaping the future of the city.
For an excellent run-down on the overall swing of the vote nationwide, don't miss Frozen Garlic's analysis here.
2014 Victorian Election
What an interesting outcome. Victoria has voted the one-term government of the Liberal Party out and elected the Labor Party. As a voter, this was probably the most difficult election I have voted on, in almost 40 years. I am anti the hard-nose attitude of Trade Unions. They fucked up the previous state and federal Labor Governments. I am for free University education. I believe good education is fundamental to long term prosperity. I am for a non-discriminatory, free, public health system. A fee - of any value - undermines the principle of free access and opens the door for increased contributions over time. It also needs happy nurses and adequately supported Ambulance Officers. I am for a practical mixture of public and automotive transport. We need a link between the Eastern Freeway and Citylink. We need smarter train routes. We need integrated freight and commercial transport. But we also need appropriate funding models to sustain education, health and transport. And we need a holistic planning model for a long term objective in transport. We used to have the MMBW - Google them and Google the Melbourne plan of the 1920's while you're at it. Planning is out the window. I voted Labor. The first time in ten state elections. For three core reasons: 1. I do not accept the current design of the East West Link. For all that money, it is no more than a shortcut between two points. 2. There are hundreds of dead transport problems that will have a greater benefit for transport users across Melbourne. 3. In my seat of Richmond, I refuse to allow my local hard-working, Labor member to be upsurped by an arrogant, narrow-focused Greens' delegate. In the end, we all know there are key areas of focus that must be attended to by either party in Government. On this occasion I found myself objecting intensely to significant differences and it routed my thinking to the Labor Party. I don't trust them, but someone has to be in the driver's seat. Move over Dennis, let Daniel give it a go.
Be Careful Daniel
Be careful Daniel Andrews; be watchful over your family. Bill Shorten has his eye on a federal seat for your delicious wife Catherine, but I think he's already sitting in it...
Follow me on twitter @bangaoren for live updates and commentary on the election results.
Post election analysis in greater detail here on this blog tonight . tomorrow.
2014 Taiwan Local Elections: Going To School
Voters line up to cast their ballots in Neihu District.
Finally! It's election day and the streets are blessedly quiet again, except for a steady buzz of activity around the nation's elementary schools, many of which have been converted into polling stations for the day. It's also an insanely hot and beautiful day for Taipei in the winter which may well have a small but significant impact on turnout overall.
I've just returned from visiting my local polling station where I had a long and interesting conversation with one of the police officers stationed outside the voting booths. Although he lives and works in Taipei, his household registration remains in Chiayi so he wasn't able to cast his own vote, a situation he explained affected many police officers around the country. He'd arrived at work at 5am for debrief and won't clock off until after 8pm tonight. I asked him what the crowds were like and he said it had been busy first thing in the morning with long queues for voting but had since simmered down to a steady slow stream of people, most of whom were middle aged or elderly. We both scratched our heads about why more young people were so passionate about politics online but didn't vote. That said, outside the school the resilient Appendectomy Project pictured below was rallying potential voters and members of the public for a recall of this district's KMT Legislator, Alex Tsai (蔡正元) who has acted as Sean Lien's campaign manager in the run up to the vote.
Here's their flyer ...
Back inside the school, everything seemed very orderly and there were scores of staff from the Taipei City Central Election Commission in hand to ensure the voting went smoothly. Although I took a picture of the booths inside one classroom I was told this was not allowed so all I can show you here is the green tray placed outside the room in which voters must place their mobile phones before entering to vote ...
Hung up outside on the wall, this sign clearly outlined the rules of the election ...
... whilst information had also been provided on the candidates running for election. For Mayor ...
and ... for Taipei City Council District 2 ...
... and then there was this guy running entirely unopposed for Borough Chief (H/T to Taiwan Law Blog for helping identify the position) ...
Also displayed prominently was this handy guide to what constitutes valid (left) and invalid (right) ballots ...
In Taiwan you vote by marking the ballot with the ink stamp provided which I think is a nice idea and better than using a pen to scribe a cross. The police officer and I both agreed that every country had its own system and each had their positives and negatives but that it would nevertheless be nice if there was an extra option of 'None of the above' so people could make a protest vote without despoiling and invalidating their ballot.
Although I wasn't allowed in the classrooms where the voting was being held, it was explained that at 4pm when voting ends I would be free to enter and observe the count but with some limitations such as not being allowed to vocally question the count. I'll leave you with this picture of a young parent voter(?) holding the next generation of voters in his hands. About an hour and fifteen minutes until the polls close and the counting begins!
2014 Taiwan Local Elections Live Blog
A quick notice to my followers: from about 6pm Taiwan time today 29th November, I will be live blogging the election results as they come in so you're going to see a lot of posts filling your dash with the tag #2014election. Thanks for your patience. LfT.
