#2020market

[argumate]

twenty three trading sessions of the Democratic Primary prediction market and Long Joe has finally done it, priced at 89.9 cents while Burning Man eats sand.

looking at the graph I think the market did a decent job overall, with Biden the clear favourite who steadily gained ground except for that massive swing to Sanders after the first two primaries that were a great opportunity for profit if you knew it was going to fizzle out.

still, kind of depressing huh? Ol’ Joe Biden, America’s best option to replace Trump? this is as good as it gets? what a world.

[confusedbyinterface]

Argumarket asks are like

[irradiate-space]

I was thinking about @argumate’s #2020market, and the graphs that the owl posts of the estimated market prices.

Here’s some ideas for graphs that might make the market more interesting or more informative:

the present average-price chart, but with an added line that sums the prices, as an estimate of whether the market has an excess or lack of confidence

for each candidate, a graph of every player’s high and low values, possibly implemented as a sort of stacked area graph, where the distance between the high and low values for each individual player is shaded at 10% opacity, and then all players’ plots are stacked atop each other so we can see how various players’ confidences compare with each other, and with themselves over time.

[argumate]

the prediction market as it was, a relatively humdrum affair this time around; besides that brief surge of enthusiasm for Burning Sands it looks like the outcome was never really in doubt: Biden was the front runner and the certainty just kept building as Warren performed a controlled flight into terrain and the rest of the field struggled to justify their existence.

[argumate]

Biden 95-98, Sanders 0-2, something weird happens with coronavirus and biden isn't nominee 1-2.

I’m afraid “the coronavirus wins the Democratic Primary" is not an option currently on the market.

[argumate]

btw I am suspending the prediction market for the Democratic Primary on the grounds that it’s even more depressing than making graphs of coronavirus fatalities.

[argumate]

a'ight, i'm trying this - 95-100 for Biden nothing for anyone else.

it’s on! now if Biden wins you win, and if Biden loses well that’s great too so it’s win-win!

[argumate]

Sanders soars! Biden plummets! Warren dips below Buttigieg and Bloomberg is still in the mix but didn’t pop as much as I expected.

after weeks of complacency it’s refreshing to see a little action, but does Angry Bernard really have it in the bag?