#25bps

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Market has started to price in a 10% chance of a 25bps rate hike, due to unemployment data

Market has started to price in a 10% chance of a 25bps rate hike, due to unemployment data

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Quick Take

The U.S. unemployment rate moves down to 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.

Payroll data came in at 253,000, with an expectancy of 185,000.

The market is currently pricing in a pause, but 25bps was not considered before today; now, there is a 10% chance.

This would take the fed funds rate to 5.25-5.50

Fed funds: (Source: CME)

Unemployment: (Source: Charlie Biello)

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Fed raises rates by 25bps; Bitcoin remains essentially flat

Fed raises rates by 25bps; Bitcoin remains essentially flat

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Quick Take

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to raise rates by 25 basis points, taking the Fed funds rate to 5%- 5.25%.

The Fed funds rate is now in line with CPI inflation which is also at 5%

The FOMC said it seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run.

In addition, the committee now says that it will consider prior actions, lags to policy, and economic and financial events in deciding on further actions, versus previous meetings, where the committee said that it anticipated additional rate increases.

The consensus is now that the rate hikes will be paused to evaluate macroeconomic conditions.

Following the news of the rate hike, Bitcoin was trading at $28,511 at press time, down 0.55% over the past 24 hours.

Fed funds vs Inflation : (Source: Federal Reserve)

BTCUSDT (Source: Trading View)

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FOMC Verdict: Rates raised by 25bps, FOMC dot plot remains unchanged, Bitcoin stays at $28,500

FOMC Verdict: Rates raised by 25bps, FOMC dot plot remains unchanged, Bitcoin stays at $28,500

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The global crypto market cap is $ with a 24-hour volume of $. The price of Bitcoin is $27,173.24 and BTC market dominance is %. The price of Ethereum is $1,725.96 and ETH market dominance is %. The best performing cryptoasset sector is AI, which gained 114%.

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Bitcoin hits $26,000 on expected CPI news, 25bps rate hike is expected

Bitcoin hits $26,000 on expected CPI news, 25bps rate hike is expected

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Quick Take

CPI slows as expected

YOY Core CPI was forecasted to come in at 5.5%. The result was 5.5%

CPI year over year was forecasted to come in at 6.0%. The result was 6.0%.

Core inflation accelerates month-over-month from +0.4% in January to +0.5% in February.

Bitcoin has smashed through $25,500

Barring any disaster, after the CPI news, a 90% probability for a 25bps rate hike for the upcoming FOMC on 22nd March.

BTC Price Chart (Source: TradingView)

Rate Probabilities: (Source: CME)

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Bitcoin breaks $20k following NFP and unemployment data, as markets favour 25bps instead of 50bps

Bitcoin breaks $20k following NFP and unemployment data, as markets favour 25bps instead of 50bps

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Quick Take

+311k jobs created vs. estimate of +205k.

3.6% unemployment rate vs. an estimate of 3.4%

Bitcoin broke $20,000 immediately after

DXY retreats to 104.8, which sees an uplift on major currencies inc EUR and GBP

While 25 bps is now the most likely for the upcoming FOMC meeting on 22nd March, with a terminal rate of 5.50%.

Currencies: (Source: Trading View)

Probabilities of Fed Meeting: (Source: CME)

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The Fed made the expected 25bps hike, both gold and Bitcoin surged on the news – highest correlation in 6 months

The Fed made the expected 25bps hike, both gold and Bitcoin surged on the news – highest correlation in 6 months

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