Decisive pincer offensive by the Turkish Army and Free Syrian Army devastates Kurdish defense lines, threatens to encircle and put Afrin province under siege as the battle has now come to the outskirts of the regional capital
Civilians in soon-to-be besieged afrin are fleeing en masse south east to Syrian government held territory.
There are approximately 300,000 civilians (including refugees) residing in Afrin Canton/district, which until Turkish invasion, had not experienced any violence in the 6 year long civil war. They are now in exodus ahead of bitter urban warfare in the city.
SDF aligned Affiliates of the Kurdish YPG has called off it’s offensive on the Islamic State remnants in the south east of Syria to bolster efforts in Afrin against the Turks and their former nominal rebel allies, the Free Syrian Army (from which Liwa al-Shamal al-Democrati is descended from)
The Kurds have handed over control of Tell Rifaat, Menagh and other eastern villages and large towns to the Syrian government to form a security belt against Turkish aggression to protect civilian passage to the southeast while the Kurds form up defense of the city of Afrin
This is a terrible situation for the Kurds and their allies in the region as it forces their defensive lines to fall back in defense of the capital of their canton. For the Turks and their allies, this is a tremendous victory and now brings the fight to Afrin itself. To showcase the depth of this crisis, the Kurds have given up even more of their territory to the Syrian Arab Army to free up soldiers in those regions to come to the city to try to fight back the Turkish offensive and prevent it from cutting off the Kurdish controlled centre of the region from supply chains to the south east.
However, it’s not all lost yet.
The Kurds who are coming to bolster this defense are veterans of the fight to liberate Raqqa and the Euphrates from Islamic State control. This is in contrast to the near inability of the FSA to take Azaz and al bab from the Islamic State, which was exploited by the SAA, who then managed to deny the Turkish back FSA from claiming anything past that.
What is likely to occur is a massacre of FSA fighters and a possible reversal for Kurdish fortunes. The Turks may have to get their hands dirty and step up with their FSA pawns rather than hide behind them.
Sadly for the civilians of Afrin and the region, their fortune in avoiding conflict since the beginning of the civil war is now gone as the city of Afrin is likely to be reduced to ruins in the coming siege.