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all right so hi guys welcome to Lesson four so in this lesson you're going to learn how to size the position of your trades in order to manage your risk and a very low nice weight as well as how do you automate your trading order so that basically you trade with very little effort and results come a lot easier so let's not piss in sizing but sizing is the part of your trading system that tells you exactly how many contracts to buy or to sell now a trading system just doesn't just take into account the entry rules and exit rules so some people may say ok I know exactly when to enter when to exit but if you don't size your position in a calculated way you will not lead to a positive expectancy at the end of your trading journey so recall that your successful trader there are 3 things to take into account right you've got first of all your trading strategy that again tells you your entry and exit rules but 30% of your success it's even more important than the entry exit rules is how you size your positions to keep your wrists portrayed as small as possible so in the event of a losing streak which is in N and inevitable in a trading system you'll be able to continue trading in order to reap the positive edge that comes with it over a larger sample trades finally you need to have again the psychology to execute the trades consistently and we'll talk about that in a lesson on trading psychology so for now we're gonna calculate or we're gonna focus on position sizing so again position sizing will help you to determine a few things number one how many contracts you will long or short on any part of the trade what is your risk per trade and your overall risk your whole part for you and more importantly what's your expected returns on your portfolio you can expect so let's go to the steps to calculate your position size and step number one is to check your net liquidation so what ever broken you're using once you log in you can look at your net liquidation or the amount of capital that you have to trade all right so we call this your net creation and for example say you've got $10,000 right you put an account in fun with $10,000 that's a net liquidation now you'll eventually go up or you may go down first before going up okay step 2 is you must determine your risk per trade so risk refers to the maximum loss that you're willing to take for every trade you put it this is the maximum you can lose if your stop-loss is hit very importantly this loss should never be more than 1% to a maximum of 3 percent of your net liquidation okay in other words never risk more than 1% to a maximum of 3 percent of your capital on any single trade so my suggestion is we start with a 1% risk of trade and once you are confident enough you're experienced enough you can easy to do percent and eventually to 3% maximum okay now once you decide on your risk per trade you have to stick with consistently over a period of time before you upgrade it all right so what you never want to do is to say okay I'm confident in this trade it's gonna be a winner I'm gonna risk 3% this trade I must it's too confident now is 1% no it doesn't happen that way you have to be consistent in your whisper trade because in reality you never know which one's gonna be a winner and which was gonna be a loser because on a trade by trade basis every trade outcome is random you gotta remember that you can never predict the outcome of any one trade but you can predict the outcome of many trades that you'll give you a positive statistical age of profit because the average wins will cover the average losses if you keep your risk consistent so let's take an example where we start by risking 1% of our capital so once you have that step 3 is to calculate your position size for each trade now I'm going to show you how to calculate it manually but in reality there are many position sizing calculators that you can find online or on your they will do it for you within a couple of seconds so you have to understand the theory and then use the calculator right great so here's the formula here's the form of K the number of lots to trade equals to your net liquidation or your current capital x your risk for tree which is 1% 2% 3% divided by your stop-loss distance multiplied by your dollar value per pip per standard contract okay so what do all these things mean let's put in examples over here all right so again we're starting at ten thousand dollars in our account so net liquidation of the ten thousand dollars we are risking 1% per trade so we put 1% so then thousand dollars 3 by M multiplied by 1% is $100 so the most that you are willing to lose is a hundred dollars in it in a trade okay so how many contracts do you need to buy in order to keep that risk and a horndog well you divide it by the stop-loss distance okay what's the stop-loss distance means stop moans distance is the distance from your entry price to your stop-loss price for example if you enter or you buy and say one point two one two zero okay so in forex we just say to one to zero and we don't see that one point just to 1 0 to 1 to 0 right and we place the stop-loss say – 1 0 0 again let me say Adam how do I know where to place the stop-loss that is what you're gonna learn in lesson 5 and lesson 7 under the specific strategy I'll teach you exactly where to place the stop-loss now your stop loss placement is always based on the candlestick patterns I repeat you always place your stop loss based on certain candlestick patterns so for different traits your stop-loss be placed at different distance sometimes your stop-loss maybe it pips away sometimes maybe 20 pips away depending on that price action okay so in this case as imagine you are placing your stop-loss 20 pips away so this would be 20 okay makes you multiply it by the dollar value per pip a standard lot so what is this figure well it depends on the payor trader if you're trading euro USD then this would be ten dollars okay and other pairs would be you know slightly more or less than ten dollars to be eleven dollars nine dollars and all that three depends on the pack okay so how do you find out what this figure is I'll show you in a short while you can go to many websites to check the dollar that you put in or just use a standard calculator then we're copying everything for you got it great oops sorry so yeah so once you punch in this these numbers ten thousand multiplied by one percent divided by twenty times ten you will get zero point five so the answer is zero point five so what is 0.5 0.5 means 0.5 contracts or so it's 0.5 Lots if you will now recall in less than one one standard lot in forex is a hundred thousand of the base currency so in this case the base currency is euro USD sorry the base currency is Europe right so one lot is a hundred thousand euros so 0.5 Lots would be 50 thousand euros okay so that's exactly the number of euros that you'll buy to place this trade okay so notice that in your account you've got ten thousand dollars in cash but you're buying 50 thousand in euros to take this position so how much leverage are you using you're using roughly about five times leverage okay so you find that in forex trading we will use leverage some brokers will offer you 40 times which a hundred times language you don't need that in fact in most of my trades i only leverage a maximum of 20 times that's the most in other words if i've got a $10,000 account okay the very most i'll buy is 20 times of that which is two hundred thousand four thousand all right by this case it is five times leverage only by fifty thousand okay let me say hey isn't that risky you know how many got ten grand about fifty grand all right now it's not risky because you've got your spot loss there so the worst that can happen is that you lose a hundred dollars right because you're risking one percent of your net liquidation so your risk is not fifty thousand don't freak out your wrist is a hundred dollars okay this is a stop loss that's why you got a place of stop loss right okay okay so let's take a look at another example so in this example again let's go to the step step one determine your account equity or your net liquidation right so again in imagine you got ten thousand dollars in your account you found that you're confident grant and step two is you're gonna determine your risk for trade so in this case that's imagine you're gonna risk creep a set of your capital because you're more confident more experienced but put three percent again once you upgrade to three percent you can't go back go to keep being consistently that same three percent right so this means in a losing trade you are prepared to lose three percent of your capital which is three hundred dollars step three determine your stop-loss distance so again I like I mentioned this depends on a strategy and the specific candlestick pattern that you see so in lesson five and less than seven I'll teach you exactly where to place a stop loss for any particular trade so in this case that's imagine your stop-loss is 30 pips away okay so with that information you can copy the number of lots to trade so number of Lots would be again net liquidation which is ten grand multiplied by 3 % / stop-loss distance of 30 pips multiplied by your dollar value so again this depends on the currency pair now for most pairs which are US dollar denominated it's about ten dollars right so you owe us these about ten bucks so just gonna use ten bucks so ten thousand multiplied by three percent there's three hundred dollars divided by 30 pips times ten dollars three hundred Eva by three hundred is one a lot so one lot is again a hundred thousand of the base currency so it's euro USD base cross euro we're gonna buy a hundred thousand euros and if you do that and your stop-loss there 30 pips how much is your risk three hundred dollars that's it okay so a few important points to know now remember that regardless of where you place your stop loss whether you place your stop of 10 pips away 20 pips away a hundred pips away your wrist should always remain the same where you place your stop loss should not change the risks you're taking that's the key you must always be risking a fixed 1 percent of your capital or three percent of whatever it is okay so depending on the strategy and the specific candlestick pattern of the trade stop-loss is placed at different distances usually below the previous low of the candle okay so you always determine your stop-loss first then you count me the number of knots to trade to keep your risk consistent the number of knots traded is inversely proportional to the stop-loss in other words the further your stop-loss the smaller than um of knots you trade but Nerada stop-loss the greater number of multi trade with the risk always be the same all right so this is just one of the many questions sizing calculators that you can use when you are copying of position science and again I tend to use the one that I download on my phone app but I'll show you the one on one of the website so if you go to my FX book.com / Forex calculate this position sighs we can just simply do a Google search for Forex calculators let's turn sizing you get something like that okay so again so again account currency u.s. dollars account signs now this will be your net liquidation net equation so in this case say 10 gram you're risking against a three percent your stop-loss is 30 pips away choose the currency pair you're trading okay because this will determine the dollar value per pip so euro USD and click on that boom there you go one lot which is a hundred thousand units ago so simple as that alright so let's take a look at some graphical representations of what I've just mentioned and again for example in the length can see a long trade where you are entering at a certain level so for example you're entering at one point two zero two zero okay so say you're entering at that level of the euro USD so you place your stop-loss 10 pips away so there will be one point two zero one zero now in for X we just say – 0 – 0 and 2 to the 1 0 we don't say that one point something right so clearly it's 10 pips below so again I've mentioned a given again let me just say it again when you place your stop loss depends on the specific candlestick patterns of that particular strategy and we'll learn that in the strategy section of less than 5 and lesson 7 of this professional forex trading course now so if your stop-loss is at 2 0 1 0 this 10 pips represents your one-hour distance so again what is our our represents risk okay and so if I'm risking one hour my profit target will be usually 1.5 hour okay when I trade stops I tend to use 1/2 but when I trade Forex especially the way I treat Forex I treat 15-minute candles right doing ba traits or scalping trades I normally will take a 1.5 hour power game and the reason I do that is because for it's a lot more volatile and I find that when I take a 1 to 2 it doesn't hit my profit target as much as I want to it reduces the win rate so with 1.5 I get a very very high winrate and a very good profit and the other day so say don't be green you don't waste go for a 1/2 – 1 2 3 at times it works for most of time if you're trading regularly a 1 to 1.5 is really very very profitable and I learned not be greedy in trading currencies especially trading lower timeframes okay so if 10 pitch is what point if 10 pips is 1 are 1.5 I'll just take 10 x 1.5 its 15 pips so I know that my target price be 15 pips above the entry price which which would be 2 0 3 5 there we go okay in the lesson plan on placing orders what I do is I place a bracket order with the entry stop-loss and target price place at the same time ok so there we go for this example now over here it's a different trait and I'm entering at again say in this case am I'm trading the dollar yet so it's 1 11.30 for example I'm going long on the dollar yen okay so my stop-loss in this case between if it's away because of this put a specific candlestick pattern or strategy so my stop-loss would be 1 1 1 point 1 0 okay so in this case my stop-loss is further away from this one but the risk should still be the same not sure must be the same so it is still 1 hour so when I size my position in this case I would buy so-called a different number of contracts from this one this one my contract size bit bigger this one my contracts has to be smaller in order to maintain this risk of my capital okay so if I'm risking 20 pips my target price must be 1.5 are above the entry 1.5 times 20 is 30 pips find a price and one one one point six zero there you go so again no matter where you place your stop-loss your risk per trade remains the same and your target price is always one point five times your risk all right all right so let's review our rules one more time risk management ensures that you keep your losses small and you will always have enough equity to keep trade in the event of a losing streak which is inevitable in trade and how good you are you go to periods of meeting streaks and piers of losing streaks and you can ensure that when you go to a losing streak it doesn't know what you are excuse you in the game all right so here the rules again rule number one always R is a fixed percentage of your net liquidation or capital again kept it between 1 percent or maximum 3 percent remember when you r is 1 percent if you get 4 losses in a row that's a 4 percent draw down on your capital and a tree percent miss pertree with 4 losses in a row you're getting a twelve percent drawn on capital but if you miss ten percent which you should never do yeah right number four losses in a row and you're down 40 percent of your capital now you may say it but Adam if the trading strategy is good and I keep trading I'll make that money back yeah that's true I can do that for most people once they lose more than 20 percent of their money it affects them psychologically they get emotional factor and you know the moment you get emotional effect that your your fingers start to shake and it's like you know should I take the next train what'd I lose again and the moment you get emotional you can't trade at your pink so you must always raise a small percentage such they're a number of losing trades that's not affecting you at all emotionally right in fact if there are facts emotionally it means you're trading with too much risk always straight at a level of risk where it doesn't affect you emotionally and only then can you trade optimally make sense okay great so again always use a stop loss on it never enter a trip without a predefined stop loss a stop loss allows us to predetermine the amount that we can lose in a losing trade let me do the difference between and literacy professionals and which was when you enter the market they have got this gamblers mentality they always dream of how much money they can make oh this one's gonna be a big we're gonna make so much money right professional traders whenever we place a trade the first thing we think about is not how much I'm gonna make the first thing we're gonna think about is how much am I prepared to lose if these traits are looser because any trade that you're going to could be a loose never know which one so the only thing you can control is how much you can lose betrayed so you always keep that really small next always use a thick profit order well that's my style at least okay because that allows us to predetermine the profit in a winning trade remember you can only make money at the end of the day if your average will is more than your average loss you can't control your win rate but you can control how much you win when you win how much you differently lose and by having a predetermined profit target you can ensure that you always get more than one hour of risk so when you lose we lose one arm when you win you can have to win more than one our 1.5 arm is my star for thorax okay so you can ensure your risk to return ratio is at least one is to one point five and again trading success is balancing between win rate and mystery can measure something Adam why don't I wrist want to make to always want to make three isn't it better sure who doesn't but the moment of profit target is too far away your win rate will go down so there's always a trade off and to me this is the pot the optimal balance right which is risking one to make one point five and having a pretty decent win rate of about 60% to sometimes 70 percent Midway okay so again remember the better there is to return ratio the lower your it way if you want to make 5 you can't get a 60% between your win rate may go down to what 40% okay few other important rules now this is my own rule I suggest you follow it right if you want to treat like me is I do not take more than two concurrent treats at the same time in fact most of the time I only take one trade only when it closes do I pick the next string and the way I treat forex I trade 15-minute candles so my average treat lasts for one to two hours or less right in fact I rarely hold a trade for more in two hours so it's a day trading scalping star I don't take more than two treats at one time because when I take a trade I'm risking say 2% I take two trades I'm risking 4% okay so no more than two trades at one time and if I am taking two trips at the same time they cannot be correlated what do I mean for example if I go along euro-usd what does it mean it means I'm bullish on a euro and bearish on the dollar and if I take another trip and I'm shorting the dollar yen which means now I'm bearish on a dollar okay I'm bullish on the yen you know both traits are correlated because over here I'm sure I'm bearish on a dollar right and I'm also perished on the dollar so if the dollar goes up both traits will lose that's not a good idea right next I take a maximum of three trades every day okay now there's no minimum on certain days it has not clear trade setup I do not take a trade the whole day even I can look at the charts the whole day even there's no clear trade I do not take it that's the discipline I only take time quality traits and a maximum three trades a day alright so now that you understand about how much risk you are taking when you're trading the next thing is you have to know how much you can potentially earn as a professional or part-time Forex trader so the idea is to always ensure it eventually you can make as much money in your trading as compared to your job so you can eventually you know quit your job and do this full-time or still keep your job and double your income that's a good idea right okay great now to do that you have to determine what is the expectancy of your trading system your trading system must have a positive statistical expectancy and age in the markets right so in the trading cost I'm gonna teach you the trading systems that I use that have got a very high profit expectancy not not every trades going to be a winner you can be sure that over a sum of tricks you'll always make money okay and from there you can copy the you expect them within a month in a year so whenever you trade a strategy you must always calculate the expected profit per trade and this is the formula the formula goes is raised but sent that you win multiplied by average win – percentage loss multiplied by average loss okay so depending on your strategy so the strategy I use is called the impulse pullback and the impulse pin bar strategy he's got a pretty good win rate of about 55 to 60 percent on average now sometimes I can get a 70% win rate on certain months but let's be conservative and let's just take a 55% we grade okay so based on this you can expect to win 55 percent of the time and lose 45 percent of time so we have to plug in your average win and average loss so let's take an example so let's imagine you risk 1% a trade so your average loss would be $100 right what percent times 10 grand and your average win would be 1.5 percent alright because you're risking one to make 1.5 in forex member net so your average will be a hundred and fifty dollars so if that you plug in the figures what you get so your expectancy per trade will be 55 percent times 150 with your average win – 45 % x Horne dollars your average loss so if you do the math that's 80 – 50 – 45 that's thirty seven dollars and fifty cents per trade so on average every trade you may we'll get you thirty-seven dollars and fifty cents on average right that's the disco average so this means that if you do 20 trades a month twenty traits multiplied by 30 750 is $750 and $750 over 10 grand that is 7.5 percent return per month okay so you compound that 7.5 percent a month compound in a year it's over a half percent if you're doubling your money every year I can take it in reality the figure is a lot higher than this why does this assumes that your capital is always a $10,000 remember you will not always be a 10,000 from 10,000 you will grow to 11 1250 20,000 and your average win will be bigger well so will your average loss but your average money profit but really begin bigger so a compound so this assumes there's no compounding right now the other way you can do I mean the other thing you can do is as you get more experience you risk more than 1% you miss 2% or 3% and again if you miss three percent what happens your return per month from 7.5% will triple to over 16 percent a month and it compounds from there now one of the most important things that I've learned is to not think in terms of money when I train because money is a very emotional thing right so if you think there's some money and you have a lot to say you know I just lost 200 bucks you know I just lost you know I just lost 10 minutes all right oh I just lost a TV set or I just lost an iPhone right I just won a holiday right and you get very emotional okay so the key is to always think in terms of our multiples right what does that mean so successful traders always thing in our multiples so they mentally disassociate with the money they're trading okay so what is one are what are the unit of risk so again 1r is the maximum risk you're taking per trade so one hour could be 1% risk or 3% risk so the key is that when I have a loss I never think I lost you know five grand or five hundred dollars for 50 bucks I always think no I lost one arm you know I just lost one hour and when I win I win one point five R so that's how I think and at the end of the mine at the end of the year I didn't tell you the money I mean which is always positive right so if you use our multiples to calculate your expectancy here's how you look right so same thing your expected profit per trade will be 55% which is your win rate multiplied by your average win and your average penis 1.5 are – your percentage loss for a forty five percent multiplied by one our average loss if you do the math you get 0.375 hour of the trade okay so on average every trade you make you're gonna make 0.375 are as long as as it is a positive figure your trading system has a positive expectancy in the markets okay so again if you do 20 traits a month on average now I do anywhere from 20 to about 40 treats a month for currencies all right trading on the 50 minute candles so that's 7.5 hour a month so again what 7.5 are you're risking 1% of your capital 7.5 hours is 7.5 percent return on your capital R is 2% is 15% retreat percent its twenty two point five percent return on your capital let me say okay that's so great why don't I do this immediately because the volatility be a lot higher remember when you get for losing trades at three percent risk is a 12 percent drawdown and you must be mentally conditioned emotionally to handle that so always start with one percent and look your way up from there okay all right so let's take a look at this trading simulator that was created by a very good friend of mine and this friend of mine his name is Kong he and to this day he's the best forex trader that I know in the world right and he's he's a brilliant guy he started with $10,000 and grew to a million dollars u.s. in about two to three years or less right and it's one of the best traders I know really dear friend and he created this simulator and I've provided as part of this online forex trading course so he can use it and you can see what come results we expect all results you can expect to get as you trade your currency markets okay so I'm going to show you how it works and basically this uses an Excel random number generator okay so what you wanna do is you wanna key in the bosses in yellow okay he in the bosses in yellow and your compute the the kind of the different outcomes you can expand alright so the first thing became your win rate okay so I can tell you again the trading systems that I will teach you in my cost the win rate would be again roughly about sixty percent okay but I would say conservatively you can you know in for anything between 50% to say 60% win rate on Goodman's you can get a 70% win rate but let's not get carried away that can't happen every month okay so let's begin with putting in an average of 55 percent minutes nineteen fifty five percent and now can you see simulated win wait over here this is 51 percent okay so notice every time I key in 55 I will get a different figure different figure why because this is a simulation based on random number generators let me give you an example right now if I toss a coin what is the theoretical win rate of a hit fifty percent right 50 percent heads and tails but if I toss it a hundred times I don't always get 50 hits and 50 tails sometimes I may get 60 hits and for details want me get 40,000 60 hits so every hundred times there's always a difference depending on the luck factor randomness so this accounts for the random win rate over a hundred traits as you can see okay so every time you trade a hundred traits and your strategy has a fifty five point plus a win rate you'll get a different result depending on the randomness just make sense okay great so put fifty five percent and for the losing our multiple put one and one so this the minimum loss and maximum loss we always keep it as one arm right because always miss our stop loss and we always lose one arm when it hits off stop us we always burner the stop-loss never ever remove the stop-loss okay unless you want to die don't die okay great now for our winning are multiple again I set a profit target at a fixed one point five are so 1.5 1.5 minimum X I make it really simple I think you might like really really simple okay risk betrayed again you can stop with one percent one percent so once you clean these variables you can then put in your starting capital so again matches ten grand and enter and based on those variables you can expect to see your band grant go to $14,000 okay over 100 trades and retreat so how long do you need to complete a hundred trades well it depends on the trading strategy you use so again the trading strategy I use is called the impulse pullback and the impulse pin bar based on 15-minute candles and I do anywhere from 20 to 40 trades a month so if you take the average of 25 tricks a month basically I do a her trades every four months so you can let me see your achieving a huntress in four months alright and in one year it's about 300 trains okay you know yeah all right so so notice every time you put in 10,000 all right you get a different figure like this you always get a different figure why why is it always different because right like this loan why because this keeps changing in this case the wind rates up to 47% and hence you only grow your capital to 11 grand on another one okay so in this case you get the win rates goes up to 59% for that 100 trades your compound returns 59% money equals 59 percent and a honey trades which again is about four months all right and you can see that based on this what is your expected profit per trade point four are your standard deviation and so and so forth right and you can see how your capital grows and your capital compounds from 10,000 to in this case $15,000 and again notice it's not a straight line right your capital can't walk every day right there's ups and downs there will be losing streaks okay so if you look at the hundred trades over here about this right even with a win rate of fifty nine percent you will get one two three five losses in a row it will happen right you get four losses in a row but at the same time you will get one two three four five six seven weeks ago so the losses can come in the row the winds can come in a row okay so the point is is many people say hey Adam you know what I love to do what you do I love to get and on 59 percent win rate sorry a 59 percent grew up in my calculating for months I want to double my money sure you can do that right when you follow my system you can do that but do that you must be willing to walk the journey of going to the wins and losses most people are not willing to do that you know some people like for example imagine you start trading and it so happens when you start trading you have happen to capture this losing sample is that possible yeah where 1 2 3 4 5 6 you take seven trades and you lose six and you win one now most people the product I would give up they say our fitness design world or and it would do something else they would trade options or something like that right or they start to you know Noah theories on it's something tricky a strategy and it you don't get screwed up okay all the news confidence is not trading but what if you start the trading and you happen to capture this winning sample over here or you want two three four five six seven eight nine ten yet ten trades you win it you lose two is you want my winner is 80% you can carry it away and you risk more and more okay and by the time you miss more the losing streak okay so my point is in trading alright when you have a win don't be happy right whenever loss don't be upset okay because every outcome in your trading is the discrete insignificant and I've talked a lot about this again under the trading psychology section of this course but I likely just get second again getting it to drill within you that you do not be concerned with losing and winning streaks what you're concerned about is the outcome over a hundred trades which will always be positive if you follow the system okay and again notice if you Restrepo send what happens you reach three percent what happens to your capital boom right it gets higher right three percent you can see on average your ending capital is higher right you make more but more you risk but when you risk more what happens you find that your drawdown your worst drawdown becomes 20 percent drawdown is your drop in capital right so with a higher risk you're gonna take a higher level draw downs okay so that concludes this section on position sizing risk management okay so let's go on to the next section alright guys so if you like this video you like to subscribe for more videos click the subscribe button to let you find out more about live training classes you can go to well I can meet global.com we do run our live training programs in Asia at the same time you like to check our online professional trading courses you can go to purana profits calm you looking for forex professional online training program will be out sometime in about a month or so so right now you may want to look at our stock trading program this adam crew signing off and i'll see you soon