Above-Average Year for S&P 500 ATHs, But Odds of a Repeat Slip
S&P 500 has recorded 36 new all-time closing highs this year as of the market’s close today (November 5, 2025). All of these new all-times highs have accompanied a respectable 15.6% S&P 500 gain thus far. Since 1950, S&P 500 has recorded 1418 new all-time closing highs including this year, which averages out to 18.9 new all-time highs per year. This makes 2025 an above average year and there is still a little less than two months of trading remaining.
In the accompanying table, yearly S&P 500 performance has been split into three separate categories, Above Average (19 or more), Below Average (1 to 18), and No New Highs based on the frequency of new all-time highs logged in each year. Each category has the year, the number of new all-time highs, that year’s performance and the following year’s performance.
Years with an above average number of new all-time highs, outperformed by a wide margin. Only 2018 was negative. Average S&P 500 full-year gain was a solid 20.7%. Years with a below average number of new all-times were mixed and produced the smallest average gain. Years with no new all-time highs were slightly better, based upon an average gain of 3.0% and more advancing years but also had numerous double-digit losses.
In above average years for new all-time closing highs, we have included the average number of calendar days between new all-time highs (column “Avg # Days/ATH”). The average this year has been 9.1 calendar days, which is in line with the average of all Above Average Years. Based upon this simple average, S&P 500 could be back at a new all-time closing high soon. S&P 500 would need to gain nearly 100 points, but at its current level it is just 1.39%.
Looking at the Next Year % performance when S&P 500 stops hitting new all-time highs is where some concern begins to trickle in. S&P 500 performance in the Next Year after an Above Average Year has not been all that great. Average performance falls to just 6.2% and only 64.3% of the Next Years were positive. The next time you hear someone getting nervous about S&P 500 new all-time highs frequently occurring, their concern is not entirely unwarranted, but it also does not mean the threat of lower prices is imminent as the market has a record of running multiple consecutive years with numerous new all-time highs.