WSJ - Perspective On A Low Return Environment
Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal published a very interesting article on asset allocation for a low return environment.
The main argument of the article, is that equities in the US are highly overpriced and while they may be a good investment in the very long term if bought during recessions or crises, they are likely to offer very poor returns, just above inflation, for the next decade. This is a similar argument to Francis Chou’s, about whom I posted last week, except now it comes from other, larger firms like Research Affiliates and Boston-based GMO.
The article goes further to explain the role or proper asset allocation in an environment of low expected returns in the US. They suggest the following:
Bonds offer a poor alternative due to historically high valuations
Look to emerging markets and developed markets like Europe and Japan for more reasonably priced equities
Diversify into resources and commodities as part of a broad portfolio
Hold cash to invest in crisis situations
This is significantly more constructive advice than what I have seen in the past. And if you have a long time horizon (over 15 years) you should be specially mindful of the cash recommendation. Instead of holding a large amount of expensive, long term bonds, hold cash that you can deploy quickly in bad times when stocks are cheap.
I should add that the global diversification recommendation should not be taken lightly. We tend to have a significant home bias in our investing decisions which makes us more susceptible to local market volatility. How much of your portfolio is allocated to Canadian or US stocks? My guess is a majority. With cheap ETFs that track broad indexes worldwide, heeding this advice is a lot easier today than a generation ago.