Demand management, Carbon Tax and a new Business Model needed to curb Aviation Emissions
This peer reviewed study outlines a decarbonisation path forward for the aviation industry to meet commitments of the Paris Agreement to limit warming to 2 degrees C and aim for 1.5C.
Net-zero aviation: Time for a new business model?
Stefan Gössling, Andreas Humpe (Dec 2022):
In: Journal of Air Transport Management, Volume 107, March 2023 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699722001727?via%3Dihub
HIGHLIGHTS
🛬 Provides a model for a credible and reliable net-zero pathway.
✈️ Shows that business-as-usual scenarios will deplete remaining carbon budget.
✈️ Argues that CO2-price and 4%/yr−1 drop-in quota necessary for transition.
✈️ Highlights the central role of climate governance in creating markets.
✈️ Concludes that new business model for aviation needed.
"Key transition technologies are in early stages of technology readiness, their scalability is uncertain, and airlines are not profitable. The replacement of fossil fuels will demand drop-in quota legislation at a global scale."
"If the current business model – volume growth with very small profit margins – is continued, it is likely that aviation's contribution to climate change will grow, due to constraints in biofuel production, cost, and an increase in non-CO2 warming. To stay within 1.5 °C warming, the sector has to reassess capacity and its relationship with profitability; and to possibly embrace an altogether different business model."