#bates keyes 1

[duggardata]

Kenna Joy arrived on Monday!

[ Permalink to Announcement ]

[fundiebabynamebible]

Baby Bates-Keyes 1 Name Predictions

On Mother's Day 2022 Esther and Nathan Bates announced they were expecting their first child. I fully expect them to announce today, Father's Day. I originally thought the baby was a boy but now I've seen the sonogram, I think it's a girl.

First Name

I think Esther and Nathan will chose a cute name for a girl but nothing that is too unique. They could go completely against my expectations and chose a tryndy name though.

A boy's name would be more biblical but still cutesy, or full on cutest with Hudson vibes. I think Oliver is a possibility but maybe not as I think that's still on Carlin's list for a boy. Having said that, Esther and Nathan might not give a shit about that and use it anyway.

Middle Name

I'm expecting them to use Esther's middle name for a girl and Nathan's for a boy. Otherwise I think Rose or Hope are very much on their wavelength. Nathan is the sort of person who would insist on one of his names being his son's middle name.

[duggardata]

Today is Esther B.’s Due Date!

Bates–Keyes #1 Baby Watch! [ Citation for Due Date ]

[duggardata]

Nathan + Esther Are Going To Be Parents!

Get The Data (and Predictions) Here.

Hold on to your hats, people.  Nathan + Esther (Keyes) Bates are going to be parents!  On Mother’s Day (May 8, 2022), Esther announced she is expecting their 1st Child in October of 2022.  Nathan + Esther tied the knot on October 22, 2021, so their Firstborn will arrive right around their 1st Anniversary.

[ Permalink to Pregnancy Announcement ]

Nathan + Esther were the first of 3 Predictor Couples—including 2 Bateses—that announced a pregnancy on Mother’s Day.  The others were John + Abbie (Burnett) Duggar and Tori (Bates) + Bobby Smith.

Read on for a full analysis!

Approximate Due Date (ADD)

Per the Pregnancy Announcement, Bates–Keyes #1 is due “Oct[ober] 2022.”  That’s not overly specific—but, it’s enough to go on.  Consistent with my rule for interpreting vague data like this, Duggar Data will be using the midpoint of October—i.e., October 16, 2022—as Esther’s Approximate Due Date (ADD), until and unless they give us more precise data.

Assuming the ADD is correct, Esther was 119 Days Along (Exactly 17 Weeks), when she announced.

Just for laughs, let’s see when Esther would be due if she and Nathan’s Baby News was exactly typically–timed, by Bates standards...  Immediately prior to their Pregnancy Announcement, it was Bates–typical to reveal a pregnancy at 84 Days Along (Exactly 12 Weeks).  For Firstborns, it was typical to announce slightly later, at 108 Days Along.  If Esther had announced at 84 Days Along, a Mother’s Day Pregnancy Announcement would correspond w/ a November 20 Due Date.  If she’d announced at 108 Days Along, typical for 1st Pregnancies, she’d be due on October 27, 2022.  Basically, their Pregnancy Announcement was made slightly later in the pregnancy than expected, but more–or–less on–time for a 1st Pregnancy.

Projected DOB + Firstborn Spacing

Currently, it is Bates–typical to deliver 8 Days Early.  (Note—Deliveries at <37 Weeks are excluded as outliers, in calculating that.  That is basically all of the Bates–Paine births, and one of Kelly’s.)  There’s insufficient data to calculate what’s “Keyes–typical” in terms of delivery timing.  (Darn!)

If Esther’s delivery is Bates–typical, as the Predictor expects, she’ll deliver 8 Days Early.  If she’s actually due on October 16th, then Baby Bates–Keyes’s Projected DOB is October 8, 2022.  That’s what we’ll use, for now!

Nathan + Esther’s Wedding occurred on October 22, 2021.  If their Firstborn makes his or her appearance on October 8, 2022, as forecast, they’ll have a Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing of 351 Days (or, 11.5 Months).  Here’s how that stacks up w/ the other Bates Couples—

251 Days   Carlin + Evan

287 Days   Josie + Kelton

318 Days   Erin + Chad  (Note—Theoretical.  Based on Marriage–to–Firstborn, had Erin not miscarried her 1st Pregnancy.)

319 Days   Zach + Whitney

322 Days   Alyssa + John

328 Days   Tori + Bobby

351 Days   Nathan + Esther

377 Days   Gil + Kelly Jo

No Data Yet   Katie + Travis and Unmarried Couples (Lawson + Tiffany and Trace + Lydia)

Factoring Nathan + Esther’s data in, the Bateses’ Overall Marriage–to–Child #1 Spacing shifted from 315 Days to 319 Days (+4 Days) (~10.5 Months).

(As a result of this change, Katie + Travis’s Firstborn is now expected to arrive on October 18, 2022—but, if so, they’re a few weeks late to announce...  Stay tuned, I guess!)

Early, Late, or What?

As mentioned directly above, prior to Nathan + Esther’s Baby News, a ‘typical’ Bates Couple became parents after 315 Days of marriage.  Nathan + Esther’s Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing is projected to be a bit longer than that, at 351 Days, so that means they’re 36 Days Late.  The Standard Deviation (SD) was 39 Days, though, so that’s well within the normal range.  (It’s 0.9 SDs Late.)  

When Will They Announce The Sex?

There’s a very, very good chance that’s they’ll do a Sex Reveal...  The Bateses always do.  Currently, it’s Bates–typical to do a Sex Reveal at 141 Days Along (20 Weeks, 1 Days).  If she’d actually due on October 16th, Esther will be that far along on May 30, 2022.

Impact on Procreative Pace / ESOQ

Now that we have data for their 1st Pregnancy, Nathan + Esther’s Procreative Pace (PP) will be based on on their Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing, multiplied by the Bates 2nd Child Multiplier.  (The 2nd Child Multiplier is a representation of the average difference between a couple’s 1st and 2nd Child Spacings.)  As of now, the Bates 2nd Child Multiplier is 1.7754x.  Multiplying that by Nathan + Esther’s projected Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing (351 Days), that’s 623 Days, or ~20.5 Months.  That is their Procreative Pace (PP), going forward.

With a Procreative Pace of 623 Days and a Fertility Cut–Off for Esther of 44.41 Years—based on her mother’s data—Nathan + Esther’s ESOQ is 12 Children.  That’s down from 15 Children, immediately after they married.  But...  Keep in mind, we can expect potentially large shifts if the Bateses 2nd Child Multiplier ends up not being a good predictor of their future spacing.  (Things are always a little sketchy when you’re relying entirely on the Multiplier.)

When To Expect Bates–Keyes #2

Based on available data, here’s what the Predictor is forecasting—

Baby News   January 7, 2024

Sex Reveal   February 12, 2024   

Due Date   June 30, 2024

Projected DOB   June 22, 2024

[duggardata]

Esther Bates has an Amazon registry with Oct 18th as her due date.

Thanks for the heads up! This is consistent with what she’s previously shared about her Due Date, so I’ll use October 18th as her Approximate Due Date (ADD), based on this!

[ Permalink to Referenced Registry ]

[duggardata]

Bates–Keyes #1 is “Term,” As of Today!

With an Approximate Due Date (ADD) of October 18, 2022, Esther (Keyes) Bates is officially 37 Weeks Along—and thus, “early term.”

So, it begins...  Bates–Keyes #1 Baby Watch!

[duggardata]

From Esther (Keyes) Bates’s Instagram (June 1, 2022).  This puts her Due Date between October 13–19, 2022.  Previously, we’d narrowed down her Due Date to October 12–18, 2022—so, the overlapping range is October 13–18th.  Her Approximate Due Date (ADD) is the mid–point of that range, rounded up:  October 16, 2022.

[duggardata]

From Esther Joy (Keyes) Bates’s Instagram (June 7, 2022). Looks like they found out the baby’s sex.