Duggar Data

Snark, speculation, and statistics... I have a spreadsheet and I'm not afraid to use it!

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Who’s been a teen newlywed?

[ Follow–Up to This Post ]

Out of the Duggars / Bateses, here’s the list—

Kendra Caldwell

Age 19.08 Kendra Caldwell

Age 19.12 Lauren Swanson

Age 19.17 Josie Bates

Age 19.46 Ben Seewald

Age 19.54 Alyssa Bates

Age 19.58 Joy Duggar

... and, Honorable Mentions who were <Age 21—

Age 20.23 Whitney Perkins

Age 20.26 Anna Keller

Age 20.57 Josh Duggar

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So Us Weekly, TLC go and the Duggar family web page all say that Grace was 7 lbs 11 oz but John and Abbie’s ig says 7 lbs 15 oz 🤔 I guess Abbie has new mom brain? Or they sent the info wrong? The data obsessed me wants to know the truth lol

Where did you see that? Looks like they said 7 + 11 on their Instagram. Maybe they edited it? Weird.

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why are anna and melanie both under the maxwell maher tag?

Oops! Because I got their maiden names mixed up. Anna Marie’s maiden name is Hamilton. I’ll fix all of the tags now on the recent Anna Marie posts!

My bad.

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Can you please do a summary of all the Maxwell couples current status? E.g. who is pregnant, who is late, is anyone due to court?

Life Update: The Maxwells

What’re the Maxwells up to? A lot, actually! Here’s a quick update—

Nathan + Melanie Welcomed their sixth child (Deborah Carol) on May 13, 2019. They’re not expected to have any more children. (Melanie is 43ish.)

Christopher + Anna Marie They’re expecting their sixth child in February 2020; however, it’s likely she will deliver early so that she can start treatment for breast cancer.

Joseph + Elissa They’re expecting their third child in Late January or Early February 2020. Their ESOQ is currently 9 Children.

John + Chelsy They’re expecting their second child in June 2020. Duggar Data is using June 2, 2020 as the EDD. Their current ESOQ is 9–10 Children.

Sarah, Anna Elizabeth, Jesse, and Elizabeth, are still living at home, unmarried, with no known courtship.

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I think the post says Anna Marie is 36 weeks along, not almost 36 weeks.

[ Follow–Up To This Duggar Data Post ]

[ Referenced Post From The Maxwell Family Blog ]

Okay... Not to be rude, but the first line of the Post literally says: “As we approach 36 Weeks in our pregnancy...” This clearly indicates that Anna Marie is almost, but not quite, 36 Weeks Along. If she were in Week 36, she wouldn’t be “approaching” Week 36... She’d already be there.

Now, that Post was from Friday. Maybe she’s 36 Weeks Along now, on Sunday. It’s impossible to know unless they give us more information.

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Anna Marie Maxwell Facing Potential Cancer Diagnosis

Today (January 10, 2020), the Maxwell Family asked for “urgent prayer” on their blog, after revealing that Anna Marie, one of their daughters–in–law might be suffering from breast cancer.

According to the Post, Anna Marie noticed a lump in her breast awhile ago. Initially, doctors thought that it was hormonal, but then recently it began “growing rapidly and showing concerning characteristics.” On Wednesday (January 8), a surgeon who reviewed the scans apparently told them he’s nearly certain that it is cancer.

Anna Marie is currently pregnant. (Apparently, she’s almost 36 Week Along, as of January 10.) The Post indicates that there’s a good chance she will have to be induced early so that she can begin treatment.

[ Link to Post on The Maxwell Family Blog ]

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John + Abbie Are Parents!

Welcome to The World, Gracie!

John David + Abbie (Burnett) Duggar welcomed their first child—a daughter they’ve named Grace “Gracie” Annette—on January 7, 2020 at 3:21 AM.  Us Weekly had the exclusive, and the couple told the tabloid—

“Our lives have changed forever with the arrival of our baby girl.  She is a beautiful gift from God.  We are so blessed the Lord has given her to us.  It’s still surreal to know that we are really parents, but it’s a great new adventure that we are excited to take on together.”

For Gracie’s impact on John + Abbie’s Data, as well as the Overall Duggar Family Data...  Read on!

Timing of...

Pregnancy Announcement

John + Abbie announced the pregnancy on August 1, 2019.  Abbie was due January 13, 2020—so, she was 115 Days Along (16 Weeks, 3 Days), at the time of the announcement.  For now, the Predictor assumes that Abbie’s theoretical future pregnancy announcements will also happen at 115 Days Along.

By Duggar standards, this announcement was a little late.  Until John + Abbie’s, it was ‘typical’ for Duggar Couples to announce a pregnancy at 93 Days—or, 13 Weeks, 2 Days—Along.  Factoring in Gracie, it’s now ‘typical’ to announce 1 Day Later, at 94 Days Along.  This varies by a Standard Deviation (SD) of 33 Days, however, so the Probable Range (68%) for Duggars’ Pregnancy Announcements is 61–127 Days Along—i.e., between ~Weeks 9–18.

Sex Reveal

On August 20, 2019, J.D. + Abbie revealed that they were expecting a girl. (Note—Previously, I have put August 19 as their Sex Reveal date; however, it was revealed quite late at night—already after midnight on the East Coast—so, let’s go with August 20.) At the time, Abbie was 134 Days Along (or 19 Weeks, 1 Day). The Predictor assumes that John + Abbie will do all future Sex Reveals at 134 Days Along, as well, since this is their only data point.

As for the Duggar Data... Prior to Gracie’s, a ‘typical’ Duggar Sex Reveal happened at 152 Days Along (i.e., 21 Weeks, 5 Days). After Grace’s, that shifted to 151 Days Along (21 Weeks, 4 Days)—i.e., 1 Day Earlier.  With a SD of 28 Days, the Probable Range (68%) for Duggar Sex Reveals is from 123–179 Days Along.

Delivery (vs. Due Date)

Abbie’s due date with Grace was January 13, but she actually gave birth 6 Days Early on January 7, 2020.  The Predictor assumes that she will deliver exactly 6 Days Early with future pregnancies, as well.

Prior to Grace’s birth, the ‘typical’ GrandDuggar was born 2 (1.67) Days Early.  Factoring in Grace, there was No Meaningful Change; it remained at 2 Days Early, shifting only from 1.67 Days to 1.98 Days Early.

Birth Announcement

Abbie gave birth on January 7, 2020, but Us Weekly didn’t report on it until January 9.  So, John + Abbie announced Grace’s arrival 2 Days Later.

Prior to Grace, it was Duggar–typical to announce a child’s arrival 1 Day Later.  Factoring in Gracie, there is No Meaningful Change; it’s still 1 Day Later.

Birthweight & Length

At birth, Baby Grace weighed 7 Pounds, 11 Ounces, and measured 20.75 Inches long.  She’s one of only 6 GrandDuggars to weigh <8 Pounds, at birth. (The rest are Bella, Garrett, Addison, Meredith, and Ivy.)

Prior to Gracie, your ‘typical’ GrandDuggar weighed 8 Pounds, 8 Ounces and measured 21 Inches, when they were born.  After Gracie, it shifted to 8 Pounds, 1 Ounces (–1 Ounce) and 21 Inches (No Meaningful Change). 

Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing

John + Abbie married on November 3, 2018.  Gracie was born on January 7, 2020, exactly 430 Days (~14 Months) later.

Pre–Gracie, the ‘typical’ Duggar Firstborn arrived 367 Days (1 Year, 2 Days) into his or her parents’ marriage.  By factoring in Gracie, that shifts slightly to 374 Days—i.e., +1 Week.  Here’s each of the Duggars’ Marriage–to–Firstborn delay, for reference—

273 Days   Joy + Austin, Joe + Kendra

289 Days   Jill + Derick

331 Days   Josiah + Lauren  (Marriage–to–Asa Projected DOB)

369 Days   Jessa + Ben

377 Days   Josh + Anna

400 Days   Josiah + Lauren  (Miscarriage–to–Bella DOB)

430 Days   John + Abbie

621 Days   Jinger + Jeremy

After Grace, Marriage–to–Firstborn varies by a SD of 104 Days, so the Probable Range (68%) for the birth of Child 1 is 270–478 Days, post–wedding.

Looking Ahead

As of January 9, 2020, the ‘typical’ Duggar Couple’s Firstborn–to–Secondborn gap is 1.78x Longer than their Marriage–to–Firstborn gap.  This ratio is critical to the New Predictor’s analysis of 1 Child Couples.  It multiplies those couples’ Marriage–to–Firstborn gap by that ratio (1.78 for Duggars) to get their Projected Pace.  (That Pace will then adjust as they add to their family.  It’s simply the average of all of their spacings, except Marriage–to–Firstborn.)

With this in mind...  John + Abbie’s Projected Pace is 1 Child Every 766 Days (~25 Months).  Again, that’s calculated by taking their actual, 430 Day Marriage–to–Firstborn spacing and multiplying by the Duggar Firstborn–to–Secondborn vs. Marriage–to–Firstborn Ratio [1.78].)

Based on their Projected Pace, plus their other data, here’s when to expect Duggar–Burnett #2—

Baby News   September 15, 2021

Sex Reveal   October 4, 2021

Due Date   February 27, 2022

Birthdate   February 21, 2022

Assuming that John + Abbie maintain the Projected Pace and that Abbie’s fertility lasts until Age 40.47, liked her mother’s did, their ESOQ is 6 Children.

[fundieinfoplace]

Breaking News: Carson's dreams come true

Erin and Chad Paine's 6th baby will be a boy due to arrive in December of 2023.

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WTF. Tonight I was watching House MD and guess who made an appearance.

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Erin & chads new video @ 8:17.. “I’ve been praying for Lawson and Tiffany’s kid” guess they didn’t mind spoiling that announcement for them LOL

Anon #1: Yeah… I thought that was pretty bad. It’s possible they’re praying for Lawson & Tiffany to be able to have a child / get pregnant, maybe, but I suspect that’s not the case and they straight up spoiled the announcement because they are careless. We’ll find out soon enough.

Anon #2: Yes, I also thought that was so weird! They were definitely pre–announcing and even said it would be in People and then… Crickets. Not sure what’s up with that.

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Duggar Family — and Their Religion — Exposed in Explosive Prime Video Docuseries Featuring Jill and Amy (Exclusive)

Shiny Happy People: Duggar Family Secrets premieres June 2 on Prime Video

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Joy is 39 Weeks Along

Her Due Date is May 23, 2023. Forsyth #3 Baby Watch!

[obsessedwithduggars]

Y’all…. How??

She must have magical ovaries.

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It’s #6! Don’t forget Finley.

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I’m sorry, WTF? How?!

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Joy is 38 Weeks Along

Her Due Date is May 23, 2023. Forsyth #3 Baby Watch!

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Forsyth #3 is "Term," As of Today!

Joy + Austin's 3rd Child is due on May 23, 2023. As of today, Joy is 37 Weeks Along—and thus, "early term." She could deliver anytime.

Forsyth #3 Baby Watch!