Subnational population projections| Josh Bougen
In addition to the national projections, Statistics New Zealand produces population projections for various subnational areas. The latest projections of the population living in subnational areas was released in February 2015 and covers the 16 regional council areas, 67 territorial authority areas, and 21 Auckland local board areas of New Zealand (boundaries at 1 January 2014). Three alternative projections (designated low, medium and high) have been produced for each area using different fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions reflecting each area's unique socio-demographic characteristics. The following results are based on the medium projection.
Of New Zealand's 67 territorial authority areas, 51 are projected to have more people in 2028 than in 2013, and 41 are projected to have more people in 2043 than in 2013 (medium projection). The highest projected population growth rates over the 30-year period (2013–43) are for Selwyn district (an average annual increase of 2.2 percent) and Queenstown-Lakes district (1.8 percent). Auckland and Waimakariri district (both 1.3 percent), Tauranga and Hamilton cities (both 1.2 percent), and Waikato district (1.1 percent) are the next highest. Under the medium projection, the largest percentage decreases in population between 2013 and 2043 are projected for the districts of Kawerau (down an average of 1.7 percent a year), Ruapehu (1.4 percent), Opotiki (1.1 percent), Wairoa (0.9 percent), and Waitomo (0.8 percent). The decreases in these five areas reflect shrinking natural increase and continuing net migration outflows, although these outflows are assumed to be smaller than experienced historically.
The projected slower population growth across New Zealand is driven by the narrowing gap between births and deaths. Nationally, natural increase is projected to decrease from 164,000 during 2009–13 to 80,000 during 2039–43 (medium projection). At the regional level, Auckland and Canterbury are the only regions that will have more births in 2039–43 than in 2009–13. All 16 regions will experience more deaths. In 55 of the 67 territorial authority areas, the number of births is expected to drop between the period 2009–13 and the period 2039–43 due to the assumed slightly lower fertility rates (average number of births per woman), combined in many areas with a decline in the number of women in the childbearing ages. In contrast, the number of deaths is expected to increase in all areas, despite continued increases in life expectancy. This is because of the increasing number of people reaching older ages. About 4 deaths in 5 currently occur at ages 65 years and over. The proportion of New Zealand's population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase from 14 percent in 2013 to 24 percent in 2043.
The Auckland region is projected to account for three-fifths of New Zealand's population growth between 2013 and 2043, with an increase of 740,000 from just under 1.5 million to 2.2 million (medium projection). Auckland's population is estimated to have surpassed 1.5 million in the year ended June 2014, and is projected to reach 2 million around 2033. In 2028, Auckland would be home to 37 percent of New Zealand's population, compared with 34 percent in 2013. By 2043, the population of Auckland could make up 40 percent of New Zealand's population.
The population of all territorial authority areas is expected to age in future, both in number and percentage of people at older ages. However, there will be considerable variation between areas, largely because of each area's current population age structure, and different fertility and migration patterns. At the national level, the median age (half the population is younger, and half older, than this age) is projected to increase from 37 years in 2013 to 43 years in 2043. At the subnational level in 2013, the median age ranged from 32 years in Hamilton city to 51 years in Thames-Coromandel district. By 2043, the median age is projected to range from 37 years in Palmerston North city to 60 years in Thames-Coromandel district. A median age of 50 years or older is projected for 15 territorial authority areas in 2043: Kaipara, Thames-Coromandel, Hauraki, Opotiki, Central Hawke's Bay, Horowhenua, Kapiti Coast, Carterton, South Wairarapa, Tasman, Marlborough, Kaikoura, Waimate, and Central Otago districts, and Nelson city. The oldest median ages are generally in areas experiencing low fertility and/or a net outflow of young adults (aged 15–29 years) and a net inflow of people aged 35–74 years. The youngest median ages are generally in areas experiencing high fertility and/or a net inflow of young adults (such as cities with major tertiary education facilities).
Projection overview Page updated 19 February 2015 , Subnational population projections Retrieved 16/10/2015 http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/estimates_and_projections/projections-overview/subnat-pop-proj.aspx