Beyond Traffic: US Transportation Systems in 2045
In February 2015, the U.S. Department of Transportation introduced a new, forward-looking initiative called Beyond Traffic: Trends and Choices. Intended not so much as a set of policy recommendations, the initiative is instead designed as a means of sparking a national conversation about the challenges currently facing the transportation systems – rail, road, shipping, and aviation--and the trends that will affect these systems in the future. At the end of the year, DOT will unveil a final report that includes public feedback on these issues.
In order to kickstart the initiative, DOT gathered a team of experts who spent a year examining America’s transportations systems and collecting initial feedback from stakeholders, such as engineers, planners, safety and disability rights advocates, and drivers and pilots, among others. Their work appears in a written report available on DOT’s website.
Part of the impetus to launch Beyond Traffic lies in the fact that the U.S. lags behind many other first-world nations in investing in transportation infrastructure. The report details how, in the 19th and 20th centuries, the U.S. led the way with massive projects such as the Transcontinental Railroad, the Panama Canal, and the Interstate Highway System. Now, however, despite the power of the American economy, our roads are rated 16th in the world. Rather than investing in major rehabilitation or new construction projects, the federal government has enacted a series of short-term measures just to keep things going. Congestion is a growing problem not only on the highways, but on freight rail lines and even in commercial airspace. The report argues that in 2045, if the U.S. continues to take a “business as usual” approach to transport funding, research, and design, our roads, trains, planes, and ships will slow us down instead of getting us where we need to go.
In order to address these pressing concerns, Beyond Traffic structures the conversation around a few key questions that peer ahead 30 years into the future:
How will people get around?
In 2045, the U.S. population is expected to increase by 70 million to 390 million. Beyond numbers, the demographics are shifting as well – eleven so-called “megaregions” could contain 75 percent of the U.S. population. The growth is forecast to be the greatest in the South and the West, where infrastructure may struggle to keep up with demand. In addition, the population is aging. By 2045, the number of Americans over the age of 65 will have increased by 77%. Since one-third of people in this age group have a disability that limits their mobility, it will be important for them to have access to medical and other critical services. Current trends among younger generations may affect the transportation landscape, as well. For example, millennials, are driving 20% less than they did in the early 2000s. Will public transit systems thus see even higher demand?
How will we transport freight?
Along with the population, the total volume of freight transported in the U.S. is expected to grow by 45% to 29 billion tons, while the value of these shipments will more than double to $39 trillion. Trucks will carry much of this increase, contributing to significant congestion on roads and highways. The DOT estimates that 30,000 miles of the busiest highways will be choked with traffic every day. In addition, railroads will see a 37% increase in freight volume, while air and waterborne transport will see increases of 250% and 10%, respectively. Overall, the transportation sector will contribute about $1.6 trillion to the $36.7 trillion national economy in 2045.
How will we use technology to improve transport?
Technology is transforming the transportation industry, and it will only continue to do so. Companies increasingly rely on data to make decisions, and data in turn has enabled new transportation options, such as car-sharing, ride-sharing, and pop-up bus services, along with faster delivery of goods, so logistics companies can track shipments more precisely. In the railroad industry, technology has already enabled Positive Train Control (PTC), which helps to prevent derailments and collisions by broadcasting information about a train’s speed, location, and direction. Dispatchers can then coordinate the movement of many trains more effectively. In addition, high-speed rail, such as the system proposed in California, is poised to alter the industry. Magnetic levitation (“maglev”) trains may also be a reality in the U.S. as well.
How will transportation systems adapt to climate change?
Climate change will present major challenges for America’s transportation systems over the next 30 years, especially with rising sea levels threatening low-lying areas along the coast. In addition, more extreme weather events, such as major storms, may occur more frequently. Some experts estimate that so-called “100-year” storms, which used to happen once every century, could occur every three to 20 years instead by 2080. Such storms can destroy transportation infrastructure. For example, Superstorm Sandy in 2012 caused $65 billion in damage to airports, railroad tracks, roads, and ports. The temperature increases that come along with climate change may cause roads to deteriorate faster and railroad tracks to buckle, as well.
How will the government coordinate decisions and deliver funding?
Currently, the U.S. is in need of major investments in its transportation systems, but government spending on transportation has declined. About 65% of our roads are in “less than good” condition, a quarter of bridges are in need of repairs, and half of all canal locks and chambers are over 50 years old. This state of affairs caused the American Society of Civil Engineers to give the U.S. a grade of D+ for its infrastructure. Further complicating matters is the fact that transportation projects require complex decision-making, coordination across many government agencies, and — perhaps most significantly — lots of time. The process will only become more complicated and expensive in time, too. The DOT believes that government agencies must innovate in order to improve coordination, streamline decision-making, and complete projects more efficiently and with greater accountability and transparency to the public.
