Best of the Super Juniors 26 - Scenarios After Day 10
Spoilers up to Sunday 26th May:
Ryusuke Taguchi(10) defeated Ren Narita(0)
Jonathan Gresham(8) defeated Yoshinobu Kanemaru(4)
Rocky Romero(6) defeated DOUKI(2)
Marty Scurll(8) defeated Titán(4)
BUSHI(8) defeated Bandido(6)
Shingo Takagi(14) defeated Tiger Mask IV(4)
YOH(8) defeated El Phantasmo(10)
Dragon Lee(10) defeated TAKA Michinoku(0) by forfeit
Robbie Eagles(10) defeated Will Ospreay(10)
Taiji Ishimori(12) defeated SHO(6)
Eliminations:
SHO can no longer catch up with Takagi, he is therefore eliminated. Lee can still tie for first with Ishimori & Takagi, but as they both hold tiebreakers over him, he has no way of winning the block, and is thus eliminated. Bandido can match the block-leaders' current score of ten, but with Taguchi still having to face Ospreay & Phantasmo, at least one of those three will surpass Bandido's highest possible score, mathematically eliminating him.
B Block Win Conditions:
01. Phantasmo can advance to the final by winning both of his remaining matches.
02. Eagles can advance if he wins his two remaining matches and Phantasmo fails to win at least one of his.
03. Taguchi can advance if he wins his two remaining matches and Eagles fails to win at least one of his.
04. Ospreay can advance if he wins his two remaining matches and Phantasmo & Eagles each fail to win at least one of theirs.
05. YOH can advance, provided the following conditions are met:-
Day 12:
-YOH(10) defeats Narita
-Phantasmo(12) defeats Taguchi(10)
-DOUKI defeats Ospreay(10)
-Rocky defeats BUSHI(8)
Day 14:
-YOH(12) defeats Eagles
-DOUKI defeats Phantasmo(12)
-Taguchi(11) draws Ospreay(11)
With 12 points and tiebreakers over Phantasmo & Eagles, YOH wins B Block.
06. BUSHI cannot win the block outright, but does still have the potential to cause a deadlock if the following conditions are met:-
Day 12:
-BUSHI(10) defeats Rocky
-Taguchi(11) draws Phantasmo(11)
-DOUKI defeats Ospreay(10)
-Bandido defeats Eagles(10)
Day 14:
-BUSHI(12) defeats Narita
-Taguchi(12) draws Ospreay(11)
-DOUKI defeats Phantasmo(11)
-Eagles(12) defeats YOH
This results in an exact three-way tie on 12 points between BUSHI, Taguchi & Eagles, with each holding a 1-1 record against the others. Some form of tiebreaker match(es) would presumably follow to determine the block winner. This is, of course, somewhat improbable.
A Block Win Conditions:
01. Takagi will advance to the final if he defeats Ishimori on Day 13, or if Ishimori fails to keep up with him on Day 11.
02. Ishimori will advance if he wins as many points as Takagi does on Day 11 and then defeats him on Day 13.
Best of the Super Juniors 26 - Scenarios After Day 12
Spoilers up to Thursday 30th May:
YOH(10) defeated Ren Narita(0)
Bandido(8) defeated Robbie Eagles(10)
BUSHI(10) defeated Rocky Romero(6)
Will Ospreay(12) defeated DOUKI(2)
Ryusuke Taguchi(12) defeated El Phantasmo(10)
Eliminations:
With Taguchi & Ospreay each on 12 points and still to face each other, at least one of them will inevitably finish with a score of more than 12. Consequently, anyone who can't also finish above 12 is now eliminated, namely YOH, Phantasmo, Eagles & BUSHI.
Final B Block Win Conditions:
As in A Block, two competitors remain, and their last match is against each other;
1. Ospreay will advance if he defeats Taguchi.
2. Taguchi will advance if he defeats Ospreay.
Unlike in A Block, neither man has the advantage in case of a draw, which would see them tied on 13 points with neither having a tiebreaker over the other. In this scenario another mechanism would be needed to decide the block winner, presumably some form of rematch/overtime.
Best of the Super Juniors 26 - Scenarios After Day 08
Spoilers up to Thursday 23rd May:
El Phantasmo(10) defeated Ren Narita(0)
Titán(4) defeated TAKA Michinoku(0)
BUSHI(4) defeated Robbie Eagles(6)
Jonathan Gresham(6) defeated Tiger Mask IV(4)
YOH(6) defeated DOUKI(2)
SHO(4) defeated Marty Scurll(4)
Ryusuke Taguchi(8) defeated Rocky Romero(2)
Yoshinobu Kanemaru(4) defeated Taiji Ishimori(8)
Will Ospreay(8) defeated Bandido(4)
Shingo Takagi(10) defeated Dragon Lee(6)
Eliminations:
It is impossible for Narita to overtake Phantasmo, or for TAKA to overtake Takagi, therefore both are eliminated. While there are a few scenarios where Rocky is able to tie for first place in B Block, none of them results in his having the best record, he is thus also eliminated.
B Block Win Conditions:
01. Phantasmo can advance to the final by winning all four of his remaining matches.
02. Taguchi can advance by winning his four remaining matches.
03. Ospreay can advance if he wins his four remaining matches and Phantasmo loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points.
04. Eagles can advance if he wins his four remaining matches and;
-Phantasmo loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least five points
-Taguchi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points (in addition to losing to Eagles).
05. YOH can advance if he wins his four remaining matches and;
-Taguchi & Ospreay both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least three points each
-Phantasmo loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points (in addition to losing to YOH).
06. Bandido can advance if he wins his four remaining matches and;
-Phantasmo loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least seven points
-Ospreay loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least five points
-YOH loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points
-Taguchi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points (in addition to losing to Bandido).
07. BUSHI can advance if he wins his four remaining matches and;
-Phantasmo loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least seven points
-Ospreay & Taguchi both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least five points each
-Eagles loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points.
08. DOUKI may be able to advance, provided the following conditions are met:-
Day 09:
-DOUKI(4) defeats Eagles(6)
-Rocky(4) defeats Phantasmo(10)
-Bandido(6) defeats Taguchi(8)
-Narita(2) defeats Ospreay(8)
-BUSHI(6) defeats YOH(6)
Day 10:
-DOUKI(6) defeats Rocky(4)
-YOH(8) defeats Phantasmo(10)
-Narita(4) defeats Taguchi(8)
-Eagles(8) defeats Ospreay(8)
-BUSHI(8) defeats Bandido(6)
Day 12:
-DOUKI(8) defeats Ospreay(8)
-Taguchi(10) defeats Phantasmo(10)
-Narita(6) defeats YOH(8)
-Bandido(8) defeats Eagles(8)
-Rocky(6) defeats BUSHI(8)
Day 14:
-DOUKI(10) defeats Phantasmo(10)
-Ospreay(10) defeats Taguchi(10)
-Eagles(10) defeats YOH(8)
-Rocky(8) defeats Bandido(8)
-Narita(8) defeats BUSHI(8)
This results in a five-way tie for first on ten points, with no clear winner between DOUKI, Taguchi, Ospreay, Phantasmo & Eagles. Having the best record among this group (3-1), DOUKI would presumably win the block.
A Block Win Conditions:
01. Takagi can advance to the final by winning all four of his remaining matches.
02. Ishimori can advance by winning his four remaining matches.
03. Gresham can advance if he wins his four remaining matches and;
-Takagi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points (in addition to losing to Gresham)
-Lee fails to win at least one more match.
04. Lee can advance if he wins his four remaining matches and;
-Takagi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least five points
-Ishimori loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points.
05. SHO can advance if he wins his four remaining matches and;
-Takagi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least seven points
-Lee loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points
-Ishimori loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points (in addition to losing to SHO)
-Kanemaru fails to win at least one more match.
06. Tiger can advance if he wins his four remaining matches and;
-Takagi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least four points (in addition to losing to Tiger)
-Lee & Gresham both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least three points each
-Ishimori loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points (in addition to losing to Tiger)
-Scurll fails to win at least one more match.
07. Kanemaru can advance if he wins his four remaining matches and;
-Takagi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least seven points
-Ishimori loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least four points
-Tiger & Titan each fail to win at least one more match.
08. Titan can advance if he wins his four remaining matches and;
-Takagi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least seven points
-Ishimori loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least five points
-Gresham loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points.
09. Scurll can advance if he wins his four remaining matches and;
-Takagi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least seven points
-Ishimori loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least five points
-Gresham loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points
-SHO fails to win at least one more match.
If the people on four points are to have any real chance of winning, Takagi needs to lose basically every match from this point on. Same goes for Phantasmo in B Block.
Next:
Day 09, featuring the following matches from both blocks:
Best of the Super Juniors 26 - Scenarios After Day 07
Spoilers up to Wednesday 22nd May:
Taiji Ishimori(8) defeated TAKA Michinoku(0)
Bandido(4) defeated Ren Narita(0)
Jonathan Gresham(4) defeated Titán(2)
YOH(4) defeated Rocky Romero(2)
Dragon Lee(6) defeated Tiger Mask IV(4)
BUSHI(2) defeated DOUKI(2)
Yoshinobu Kanemaru(2) defeated SHO(2)
Robbie Eagles(6) defeated Ryusuke Taguchi(6)
Shingo Takagi(8) defeated Marty Scurll(4)
El Phantasmo(8) defeated Will Ospreay(6)
Eliminations:
None, but TAKA & Narita are both very close. Another loss (or draw) by either will mean certain elimination, and even if they start winning, it won't matter unless certain other people also start losing.
A Block Win Conditions:
01. Ishimori can advance to the final by winning all five of his remaining matches.
02. Takagi can advance by winning his five remaining matches.
03. Lee can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and Ishimori loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points.
04. Tiger can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and;
-Lee loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points
-Ishimori & Takagi both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least two points each (in addition to losing to Tiger)
-Scurll fails to win at least one more match.
05. Gresham can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and;
-Lee loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points
-Ishimori & Takagi both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least two points each (in addition to losing to Gresham)
-Scurll fails to win at least one more match.
06. Scurll can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and Ishimori & Takagi both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least five points each.
07. Kanemaru can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and;
-Takagi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least seven points
-Ishimori loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least four points (in addition to losing to Kanemaru)
-Tiger loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points
-Lee loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points (in addition to losing to Kanemaru)
-Titan fails to win at least one more match.
08. SHO can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and;
-Takagi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least seven points
-Lee loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least five points
-Ishimori loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least four points (in addition to losing to SHO)
-Kanemaru fails to win at least one more match.
09. Titan can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and;
-Ishimori & Takagi both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least seven points each
-Gresham loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points
-Lee loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points (in addition to losing to Titan).
10. TAKA can advance, provided the following conditions are met:-
Day 08:
-TAKA(2) defeats Titan(2)
-Kanemaru(4) defeats Ishimori(8)
-Lee(8) defeats Takagi(8)
-Scurll(6) defeats SHO(2)
-Tiger(5) draws Gresham(5)
Day 09:
-TAKA(4) defeats Takagi(8)
-Gresham(7) defeats Ishimori(8)
-Titan(4) defeats Lee(8)
-SHO(4) defeats Tiger(5)
-Kanemaru(6) defeats Scurll(6)
Day 10:
-TAKA(6) defeats Lee(8)
-SHO(6) defeats Ishimori(8)
-Tiger(7) defeats Takagi(8)
-Kanemaru(8) defeats Gresham(7)
-Scurll(8) defeats Titan(4)
Day 11:
-TAKA(8) defeats Scurll(8)
-Tiger(9) defeats Ishimori(8)
-Gresham(9) defeats Takagi(8)
-Kanemaru(10) defeats Lee(8)
-Titan(6) defeats SHO(6)
Day 13:
-TAKA(10) defeats Kanemaru(10)
-Takagi(10) defeats Ishimori(8)
-Titan(8) defeats Tiger(9)
-SHO(8) defeats Gresham(9)
-Scurll(10) defeats Lee(8)
This results in a four-way tie for first on ten points, between TAKA, Scurll, Kanemaru & Takagi. With tiebreakers over the other three, TAKA wins the block. There are some other variations of this path that produce similar results, but they all have in common the key points that TAKA must win all of his remaining matches, and that neither Ishimori or Takagi can be allowed to win any of theirs until they face each other on Day 13.
B Block Win Conditions:
01. Phantasmo can advance to the final by winning all five of his remaining matches.
02. Taguchi can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and Eagles fails to win at least one of his.
03. Ospreay can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and Phantasmo loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points.
04. Eagles can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and Phantasmo loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points.
05. Bandido can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and;
-Phantasmo loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least five points
-YOH fails to win at least one more match.
06. YOH can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and;
-Taguchi & Ospreay both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least three points each
-Phantasmo loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points (in addition to losing to YOH).
07. DOUKI can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and;
-Taguchi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least five points
-Phantasmo loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least four points (in addition to losing to DOUKI)
-Bandido loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points
-Ospreay & Eagles both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least two points each (in addition to losing to DOUKI)
-BUSHI fails to win at least one more match.
08. BUSHI can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and;
-Phantasmo loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least seven points
-Ospreay & Taguchi both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least five points each
-Eagles loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points (in addition to losing to BUSHI).
09. Rocky can advance if he wins his five remaining matches and;
-Ospreay & Eagles both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least five points each
-Phantasmo loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least four points (in addition to losing to Rocky)
-YOH loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points
-Taguchi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points (in addition to losing to Rocky).
10. Narita can advance, provided the following conditions are met:-
Day 08:
-Narita(2) defeats Phantasmo(8)
-BUSHI(4) defeats Eagles(6)
-Ospreay(8) defeats Bandido(4)
-Rocky(4) defeats Taguchi(6)
-YOH(6) defeats DOUKI(2)
Day 09:
-Narita(4) defeats Ospreay(8)
-DOUKI(4) defeats Eagles(6)
-Rocky(6) defeats Phantasmo(8)
-Taguchi(8) defeats Bandido(4)
-BUSHI(6) defeats YOH(6)
Day 10:
-Narita(6) defeats Taguchi(8)
-YOH(8) defeats Phantasmo(8)
-BUSHI(8) defeats Bandido(4)
-Eagles(8) defeats Ospreay(8)
-DOUKI(6) defeats Rocky(6)
Day 12:
-Narita(8) defeats YOH(8)
-Bandido(6) defeats Eagles(8)
-Taguchi(10) defeats Phantasmo(8)
-DOUKI(8) defeats Ospreay(8)
-BUSHI(10) defeats Rocky(6)
Day 14:
-Narita(10) defeats BUSHI(10)
-YOH(10) defeats Eagles(8)
-Ospreay(10) defeats Taguchi(10)
-Phantasmo(10) defeats DOUKI(8)
This results in a six-way tie for first on ten points, between Narita, Taguchi, Ospreay, YOH, Phantasmo & BUSHI. With tiebreakers over the other five, Narita wins the block. As with TAKA, there are a few other ways this could be done; the common thread being that Narita must win all of the ten points still available to him, with no one else going over that number, and the people who’ve already beaten him staying below it. Highly unlikely, but still possible.
Next:
Day 08, featuring the following matches from both blocks:
Best of the Super Juniors 26 - Scenarios After Day 05
Spoilers up to Saturday 18th May:
SHO(2) defeated TAKA Michinoku(0)
Marty Scurll(4) defeated Tiger Mask IV(4)
Taiji Ishimori(6) defeated Titán(2)
Dragon Lee(4) defeated Jonathan Gresham(2)
Shingo Takagi(6) defeated Yoshinobu Kanemaru(0)
Eliminations:
None.
A Block Win Conditions:
01. Ishimori can advance to the final by winning all six of his remaining matches.
02. Takagi can advance by winning his six remaining matches.
03. Tiger can advance if he wins his six remaining matches and Scurll fails to win at least one of his.
04. Scurll can advance if he wins his six remaining matches and Ishimori loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points.
05. Lee can advance if he wins his six remaining matches and Ishimori loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points.
06. SHO can advance if he wins his six remaining matches and;
-Takagi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least five points
-Lee loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points
-Ishimori loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least two points (in addition to losing to SHO).
07. Titan can advance if he wins his six remaining matches and Ishimori & Takagi both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least five points each.
08. Gresham can advance if he wins his six remaining matches and;
-Lee & Scurll both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least three points each
-Ishimori & Takagi both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least two points each (in addition to losing to Gresham).
09. Kanemaru can advance if he wins his six remaining matches and;
-Takagi loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least seven points
-Tiger loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least five points
-Ishimori loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least four points (in addition to losing to Kanemaru)
-Titan loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least three points
-Lee & Scurll both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least two points each (in addition to losing to Kanemaru).
10. TAKA can advance if he wins his six remaining matches and;
-Tiger loses or draws enough times to miss out on at least five points
-Ishimori & Takagi both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least four points each (in addition to losing to TAKA)
-SHO & Gresham both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least three points each
-Lee & Scurll both lose or draw enough times to miss out on at least two points each (in addition to losing to TAKA).
