#china update

[stormypetrol]

83 trillion Chinese intensify Taiwan tensions

June 19, 2026

[samarinindustrial]

China News Update

News from the East: China Exports Fall Most in Seven Months, Adding to Yuan Pressure (Financial Times)

A weaker renminbi failed to stop a sharp fall in China’s exports in September, damping economists’ hopes that demand would pick up in the fourth quarter and sending markets in the region lower. In renminbi terms, exports fell an annualized 5.6 per cent, according to China’s General Administration of Customs, the first drop since February when outbound shipments contracted 20.6 per cent. Imports grew only 2.2 per cent in local currency terms, down from 10.8 per cent growth in August.

 The fall in exports “adds weight to our view that the People’s Bank will maintain its recent policy of gradual trade-weighted renminbi depreciation in coming quarters,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics.

  News from the West: Fed Minutes Show Officials Expect to Raise Rates ‘Relatively Soon’ (WSJ)

Federal Reserve officials decided only after considerable disagreement to hold interest rates steady at their September meeting but expected to raise them “relatively soon” thereafter.

 Several officials viewed the decision as a “close call,” with some wanting to move then and others preferring to wait a bit longer in hopes of seeing more improvement in the labor market, according to minutes of the Sept. 20-21 meeting, released Wednesday after the usual three-week lag.

 The minutes didn’t say when the next rate increase might come, but they largely reinforced market and analyst expectations of a Fed move in December, after the U.S. presidential election. The central bank has two more policy meetings this year, in early November and mid-December.

  Where Will the Fed Funds Target Range Be at the End of 2016?

Currently, the U.S. Federal Reserve has set its Fed Funds Target Range at 0.25% - 0.50%. The graph below shows the swap market’s current assessment of the probabilities of possible Fed Funds Target Rates by the end of this year.