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By Greg (@GA_Sports3) and Travis (@KelleGrown)
Some mid-majors have started their Conference Tournaments while the majority of the teams finish their regular seasons this weekend. Let’s take a quick whip around the country and highlight interesting matchups, big time bubble effecters, and betting advantages.
12:00pm Syracuse @ NC State (-6.0)
Travis - It is now us versus the world for Syracuse. Does that attitude lead to an upset? NC State seems safe for now, but they are still flirting with that bubble. Wolfpack take care of business.
Greg – If you think I’m picking against Cuse in Rakeem Christmas’s last game then you’re crazy. The legend of the Orangeman is spreading around Boston, and while there will be no appearances in the dance this year, that doesn’t weaken the dedication to the Orange. The last few weeks have been their tournament, and they have made a splash. The last step is weakening the Wolfpack bubble.
12:00pm #21 Butler @ #24 Providence (-2.5)
Travis - Butler is coming off a loss, and Providence got them the first time around. I think the Bulldogs pull off the road win.
Greg – I love the combo of Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton. Andy Katz and Seth Greenberg have been talking a lot about how Senior Night can hurt a home team because of all the emotion, so maybe Henton starts slow in this one. Take Butler in the first half, but the Friars to pull it out in the end.
12:00pm Michigan St @ Indiana (-1.0)
Travis - All in for Indiana on this one. Their AD came out and backed Tom Crean. A loss here could spell trouble for the Hoosiers on Selection Sunday. I think they respond at home.
Greg – If you judged these teams just based on reactions after their respective wins and losses to the Terps (throwing out the Hoosiers close loss) then Indiana would be Final Four bound and Sparty would be a bottom feeder in the Big 10. Turns out both teams are just stuck in the middle of the Big 10. Sparty doesn’t have the fire power to hang with Indiana at Assembly Hall.
2:00pm Florida @ #1 Kentucky (-15.5)
Travis - Will Kentucky complete the perfect regular season? I cannot see a scenario where they lose at home. Kentucky will roll big and end on a big high note.
Greg – I agree with Trav; this one won’t be pretty.
2:00pm LSU @ 18 Arkansas (-6.5)
Greg – I’m generally down on the SEC, but both of these teams have lots of talent, so they are generally fun to watch. In particular I like Jordan Mickey and his 3.7 blocks per game. LSU has fallen to an 11 seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology, but I think they clinch a bid with a road upset to end the season.
2:00pm Oklahoma St @ 20 West Virginia (-6.0)
Greg – I selfishly want the Pokes to take this one as it helps the Terps resume. It is hard to pick an outcome as Juwan Staten is questionable for the Mountaineers. WVU likely wins regardless, but I don’t see a cover without Staten. Oklahoma State falls to the bubble and needs a win in the Big 12 tourney to feel safe.
4:00pm #9 Kansas @ #15 Oklahoma (-5.0)
Travis - Kansas locked up yet another Big 12 Regular Season Championship. 5 points is a lot at home, but Kansas has been underwhelming lately and they do not have a ton to play for. Oklahoma rebounds off an epic collapse at Iowa State last time out.
Greg – Oklahoma’s season hinges on this game. That loss at Iowa State is the type that derails a season. A strong response today would be huge from a confidence standpoint. Perry Ellis is definitely out and Cliff Alexander is likely out as well, so this is a vulnerable Jayhawks squad. I’m just not sold on the Sooners bouncing back so I’m taking the points.
4:00pm Stanford @ #5 Arizona (-13.5)
Greg – Maybe it is my years of sweating out the Terps being on the bubble, but I just can’t resist these bubble games. The Cardinal are in the Next Four Out, but a win here would change that in a hurry. The Wildcats meanwhile are making a very strong push for a #1 seed. I don’t see them losing this, but I think Stanford keeps it close as long as they stay out of foul trouble.
6:30pm #2 UVA @ #16 Louisville (+2.5)
Greg - Only mentioning this game to make sure people don’t bother watching. It will be played in the 40’s and will make you question whether you should be excited for March Madness if these two teams are top seeds.
I think that’s it….Enjoy!
Just Kidding
9:00pm #3 Duke @ #19 North Carolina (-1.0)
Travis - Neither team can consistently defend. UNC has the front court depth to bother Jahlil Okafor. I think Paige finally goes off in front of his home crowd. UNC is my play if I have to, but just bet the over and Enjoy the game.
Greg – I was very impressed with UNC in the last matchup despite the choke job at the end. You can see how the rivalry inspires players like JP Tokoto to step their game up. Add in the home crowd and I like the Tar Heels to end the season on a high note. Watch out for Justise Winslow though – he doesn’t get the press of Okafor, but he’s been the one carrying Duke recently.
By Greg (@GA_Sports3) and Travis (@KelleGrown)
On a semi-annual basis I have an internal debate about my favorite sports time of the year. At about this point, Spring starts making a very strong case. We are four weeks and one day from the greatest “playoffs” in sports. If you haven’t already requested vacation for Thursday, March 19 and Friday, March 20 then let this serve as a friendly reminder. It is almost Tourney time, and I can’t wait. (Also pitchers and catchers are beginning to report, and they’re really no sweeter thought than that).
Tonight features some very strong previews of teams you will be seeing make an impact on your bracket (except Syracuse - tear). The classic Duke-UNC rivalry game is always a treat, but I’ll also be checking in on the Iowa St-Oklahoma St game (aka the Battle of the Teams that Made Maryland’s Season). The Cyclones will be going far in my bracket so I need every opportunity possible to determine just how far.
Undercard:
#12 Louisville @ Syracuse (+2.5, O/U 130.5) [7:00 PM on ESPN]
Travis – A lot has been made about Syracuse’s self-imposed post season ban. Some analysts believe their players will quit on the season because it has no meaning. Others feel they will elevate their game because each contest is a championship in itself. I do not think the Orangemen will quit, but prior to the sanctions every game was like a championship anyways because they were squarely on the bubble. Moral of the story, the sanctions should have no effect on the game’s line or the outcome.
As far as the actual game, the story is out with the Orange. An already short bench is now gone because of injuries. Their starters play huge minutes, so fatigue and foul trouble dictate a lot of their outcomes. Louisville is coming off a terrible loss at home (Syracuse also lost at home, but it was a tough game to Duke), so I think they will be motivated. Louisville has been one of the worst offensive teams this season, especially when forced to rely on the jump shot. In years past, Syracuse could pack in their zone and force the Cardinals to beat them from the outside. This year that will not be the case. The Orangemen’s backline does not have the length it is accustomed to, and I think Louisville will be relentless inside and on the offensive boards. The non-stop pressure for Louisville should also wear down Syracuse towards the end of the game. Louisville 67 – Syracuse 59.
Greg – The Cuse lack depth, but relative to what we expect from a Rick Pitino Louisville team, so do the Cardinals. That will be put to the test even more tonight since senior guard Chris Jones was suspended for unknown reasons on Wednesday night. That leaves the Cardinals with three players averaging double figures and then no player above 3.2 points per game. Terry Rozier will certainly carry more of the load, and MonTREZL should dominate down low, but I don’t think the two of them can combine for the 65ish point it will take to beat the Orange. Wayne Blackshear is the x-factor. If he has one of his seemingly random games where he is feeling it from three then Louisville can hang.
However, we’re not about “if’s” here at BBP, we are about strong predictions, and mine is that the Orange pull this one off. I’m really bummed for Rakeem Christmas because he may be the most improved player in the ACC, and he will finish his career with his only season not in the Tourney. He’s progressed enough that I see him playing in the NBA. He added strength and post moves this season to go along with an already sound defensive game. Even though he won’t be playing man-to-man defense against Montrezl, it will be fun to watch them bang around in the post.
Christmas will be handing the reigns over to Michael Gbinije next season, and he’s why I see Cuse taking this game. Gbinije may be Christmas’ biggest competition for most improved in the ACC. He looks much more confident and assertive with the ball, and has become the Orange’s go-to playmaker. He’s shooting almost 10% better than Trevor Cooney from three and makes about two per game. He’s also not afraid to drive, but is a horrendous free throw shooter. Look for him to be in the high 20’s in a Cuse win: Cuse 68, Louisville 61.
P.s. Is it too Barstool of me to have a p.s.? Louisville is currently the top four seed that I am mostly likely to pick to be upset in Tourney. Obviously a lot can change in the next month, and matchups are huge, but their offense just disappears a lot. I love Montrezl, but they seem doomed, especially if Chris Jones is done.
#14 Iowa State @ #22 Oklahoma St (-1.5, O/U 144) [9:00 PM on ESPNU]
Travis – Oklahoma State is at home. The Pokes can control tempo, which led to a very close game in Hilton Coliseum earlier this year. A terrible game at TCU last time out tends to point to a bounce back game at home. Oklahoma State 69 – Iowa State 66.
Greg – The Cyclones were one of my teams to watch heading in to the season, and I remain high on them despite some bumps in the road. Georges Niang has not been the dominant force that I expected him to be, but that has been offset by Monte Morris taking the next step. He is now one of the best point guards in the country, but I do wonder if Niang would be better off touching the ball more in the offense. Jameel McKay has come on strong since gaining eligibility, but I do worry that his increased minutes are at the expense of Dustin Hogue, who is the ultimate glue guy. I love teams with diverse offenses, and Iowa State epitomizes that with six guys averaging double figures.
Despite the Cyclones lovefest I just initiated, I believe Oklahoma State will put up a great fight in this game. Le’Bryan Nash is one of those players who has seemingly been in school for 8 years, but looks comfortable as the focal point of this offense. I’m really in to the interior presence of Michael Cobbins and believe the Pokes would have been at least a Sweet Sixteen team if he did not get hurt last season. Maybe Trevor Cooney has ruined sharp shooting white guards for me, but I get nervous when a guy like Phil Forte is the second-leading scorer (although he is admittedly a much more skilled and savvy player than Cooney). Still in Hoiberg I trust: Cyclones 76, Cowboys 72.
Main Event:
#15 North Carolina @ #4 Duke (-8.5, O/U 157.5) [9:00 PM on ESPN]
Travis – After trending up for several weeks, UNC has lost 3 out of their last 4. In our preseason podcast, I loved UNC as an underrated team. I still think they have final four potential, however a second guard still has not stepped up next to Marcus Paige. Inconsistent play across the board has left UNC fans with plenty of head scratchers.
Duke has been an offensive juggernaut behind Jahlil Okafor this season. Their defensive inefficiencies have been well documented. Everyone has heard how Coach K even played zone a few games this season. UNC can roll out plenty of front court players to try and contain Okafor, but he will still get his 20 and 10.
UNC is the king of playing to their competition. Duke is the better team, and they should definitely win at home. Neither team can defend, and both teams are happy playing in the 80s. Not sure what Vegas will make Duke cover, but I do not see it happening. Duke 86 – UNC 81.
Greg – When Duke kicked Rasheed Sulaimon off the team, depth suddenly became an issue for the Blue Devils. Their freshman trio of Okafor, Winslow and Jones is amongst the best in the nation. Jefferson and Cook provide great veteran leadership, but then there is a major gap. Even with a light squad, I see Duke handling the Tar Heels. Kennedy Meeks has the build to take on Okafor, but not the length. I’m probably letting recency skew my opinion, but unless Marcus Paige has a 2013-14 esque game where he gets in the 30’s then I’m fading the Tar Heels. Blue Devils 82, Tar Heels 71...and yes it is painful to pick Duke.
Entering its fourth season, the Champions Classic has solidified itself as the premiere early season showcase. Three great coaches and one great recruiter continue to test their teams right out of the gate giving fans a Final Four atmosphere in November. Duke, Michigan State, Kentucky, and Kansas have agreed to another three years of the Champions Classic, so cherish and enjoy.
This year’s event is at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Home of the Indiana Pacers
Game 1: Michigan State (#19) vs. Duke (#4) on ESPN
A few weak years of recruiting has finally caught up to Tom Izzo. The Spartans enter the season with a bunch of question marks, but Izzo is a great underdog coach. Sparty returns a solid threesome of Brendan Dawson, Denzel Valentine, and Travis Trice. Outside of them the pieces are thin. A few injuries have really cut into an already weak bench. Michigan State will have to lean on their defense and rebounding to control tempo because I cannot see them hanging around in a shootout.
Duke is off to a hot start this season. They topped the century mark in both of their first two games, but should see a little more resistance against the Spartans. Top rated recruit Jahlil Okafor will not disappoint in his primetime debut. Okafor has a polished inside game and is a willing passer. Duke finally has an inside presence that will draw double teams and open up shooters all over the floor. Granted Presbyterian and Fairfield are not high quality opponents, Duke still looked impressive.
I think Vegas will hang a pretty high number here, and I would still be tempted to take the Blue Devils. Michigan State struggled to beat Navy in their opener, and Duke will be a tough opponent to get on track against. The Spartans will have no answer for Okafor inside other than a double team, which is bad news. Anything less than -12 I will take the Blue Devils. Keep in mind this event is a showcase. The players want to get noticed; they will run up the score.
Game 2: Kansas (#5) vs. Kentucky (#1) on ESPN
Well that platoon system did not last long. Buffalo held a halftime lead on Kentucky, which along with foul trouble forced Calipari to vary his minutes. The scouting report remains the same for Kentucky. It is early in the season, so there will be a bunch of messy plays. The talent is obviously there, but building a team takes a bunch of time never mind a team of superstars. The luxury for Kentucky is their size on defense will bail them out of mental mistakes, and Calipari has endless combinations to find lineups that will work.
Kansas struggled to a 10 point victory over UC Santa Barbara in their opener. Guard play was inconsistent last year for the Jayhawks and the season debut was no different. Kansas has the talent to stay with Kentucky, but the key will be keeping them on the floor. Kansas cannot get into foul trouble, or get caught in too fast of a game. The pressure will be on Frank Mason III and Wayne Selden Jr. to control tempo and distribute. They only had 2 assists in their first game, so that will need to improve.
No spread for this game yet, but my lean is Kansas. Both teams are 1-2 in the Champions Classic short lifetime, which is more important for Kentucky. The hype is always there for Kentucky, and it’s tough to live up to in on the first big night. I think the number might be around 7, but I would probably take Kansas as low as +4. My hope is for a sloppy game featuring plenty of half court sets and grind it out possessions. If the game opens up, Kentucky can run away with it. It will be interesting to see how the young Wildcats handle the big stage and the step up in competition.
Exciting news at BBP headquarters as we recorded our first ever podcast last night. The topic at hand was the upcoming college hoops season, and we sure had a lot to say about it. This site has some pretty small data minimums, so the podcast is up at the links below:
