Climate change is projected to drastically reduce suitable coffee-growing regions by 2050.
Excerpt from this story from Inside Climate News:
Your morning caffeine fix could soon become a luxury in the face of climate change. Last week, coffee prices surged to a 47-year high as global growers struggle to recover from extreme weather.
Over the past year, extended droughts have gripped Brazil and Vietnam—the world’s two largest producers of coffee. Scientists say the parched conditions were fueled by the El Niño weather pattern and global warming, which have triggered widespread coffee crop losses that could also affect next year’s supply.
Research shows that these conditions are a harbinger of our coffee future. By 2050, rising temperatures are projected to shrink suitable coffee-growing regions by half, which could eliminate a crucial revenue source for farmers in developing countries.
For the average consumer, coffee prices are expected to surge even higher with climate change (a shuddering thought as I sip on an already overpriced cappuccino). Now, coffee companies are testing a variety of strategies to adapt to climate shocks, from diversifying their sources to shifting away from the crop altogether.
In September, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters said the country was undergoing the “most intense and widespread drought in history,” with nearly 60 percent of the region under stress. El Niño and climate change jacked up heat in South America, which exacerbated dryness in the region. But the drought can also be partially attributed to the rampant deforestation that has occurred in Brazil over the past few decades, which has altered rainfall patterns and the amount of moisture the land can absorb, The Washington Post reports.
As I wrote in November, droughts go hand in hand with wildfires. Over the past year, Brazil has seen some of its worst wildfires in decades, largely caused by a farming technique known as “slash-and-burn,” which is when farmers cut and scorch trees to clear land for more crops. Ironically, the fires started by this practice, as well as dry soil from the droughts, have devastated sugarcane, fruit and especially coffee crop yields across the country. Coffee growers in Vietnam have also been hit hard by droughts, and some are recovering from Typhoon Yagi, which hit the country in September.
Coffee arabica—the species most commonly used in consumer roasts—is particularly vulnerable to climate shocks. The plants thrive in the shady, moist environments found in tropical countries, typically growing best between 64 and 70 degrees Fahrenheit. But a 2022 study found that climate change will fuel higher temperatures that push key coffee-growing regions such as parts of Eastern Brazil and Southeast Asia out of coffee’s climatic sweet spot. The researchers identified a few areas in East Africa, Asia and South America that could benefit from changing conditions, but stressed that many of them do not yet have the infrastructure or space to support widespread coffee growth without adding to deforestation.
The price of arabica beans has spiked almost 70 percent on the New York Stock Exchange this year, with contracts for future yields costing $3.35 a pound at one point last week.
The industry is taking major hits, which will likely trickle down to consumers soon, experts say. In November, coffee maker Nestle SA announced that it will raise prices and produce smaller bags to weather the storm—or in this case, drought. Other business leaders are also reckoning with how to meet ever-growing demand for the beverage despite shrinking supplies.
