HTML5 will not lead to commoditization of smartphones makers
The debate on the future of App stores and OS lock-ins is raging on as HTML5 picks steam. Since the strength of app stores has been key competitive factor for smartphones, many people have already written obituaries for smartphone makers. True, the potential for App stores to lock in customers will get dissipated as more and more development happens on HTML5. But that doesn’t mean smartphones will be relegated to commoditized gateways, very much like PCs were a few decades back.
For starters, smartphones are likely to be used in a many different scenarios, which means diversity of the devices will likely be a lot more than PCs. This will allow many more opportunities to differentiate than we saw in PCs. The diversity will go beyond the base features such as camera, screen resolution, processing speed, form factor etc. We are certainly seeing a continued stream of innovation – Samsung Galaxy Xcover can be washed, Blackberry allows segregation of work and personal information, and with Nokia you can now print your own covers. The need for diversity is even bigger if you consider the accessories that will support the use cases in hospitals, schools, logistics etc.
Smartphones are a lot more use-case dependent devices. In a way, HTML5 will lead to reduction in cost of development of these use-cases, and the utility and adoption of the smartphones will increase. It will therefore lead to wider adoption of smartphones. Just that the levers of competition will change from walled garden of applications to true differentiation of the hardware