Kipreview: Week Five
Hi all. As Mitch Kiper navigates this first year in the Dynosteve media circles, he is slowly but surely finding his way. Part of that internal discovery involves meditating to the mantra, “Bless Em.” It also involves the self-realization that writing a data-driven article prior to Thursday Night Football is an unsustainable weekly effort. So, welcome to the new air date for the Kipreview. New time slot, same questionable analysis you love.
This week, before I get started, I want to make a special shout out to four players. In the fantasy world, these players are largely useless. But because I have to input stats from literally every player in the CBS database, running “Text to Columns” to separate first and last, there are some players who cause trouble with longer names than the average, so each week I’m stuck manually editing their names. These players have become special to me. While they may not play meaningful downs in the NFL, they certainly are the buttfumbles of Mitch Kiper’s heart. So this week, Mitch Kiper is handing his annual “Your Surnames Suck” awards to: Equanimeous St. Brown, James Vander Laan, DeAngelo Henderson Sr., and Robert Griffin III. Congratulations. My excel spreadsheet hates you.
These awards are not the only a la carte special Mitch Kiper will be serving this week. At the request of statistic-guru peer Ben Buccigross, we will be looking at the Bergen Boxtables QB situation, and trying to assess once and for all who should claim the Blue Throne of Bergen.
NOTABLE TRANSACTION:
Honorable mention goes to… Greater Zimbabwe Victoria Falls – Packers D/ST
This was the only move in the league that had any impact this week. Prior to week 4, the Falls picked up the Packers and dropped Jordan Matthews. The Packers immediately became the Falls D/ST #1, boosting their C-FPG by 2, and giving them a top 10% defense. Goose’s previous D/ST #1, the Panthers, are barely better than half the currently rostered Defenses.
Also, it’s worth noting that the Packers put up 28 points, pushing the Falls over the edge of a very high scoring battle with the Yeshivas. That pickup made the difference. And meanwhile, the Jaguars languish in the 81st percentile of rostered D/STs, putting up an average of 9 ppg. Mitch Kiper still has hope, but right now he is willing to admit he may have made a mistake.
Speaking of Mistakes…
And since this league is apparently about being petty (looking at you, Scenario Dilloatmeal), a very special almost Dishonorable Mention… That Damn Michael Thomas trade.
Thatcher Hammerfest mentioned this past week that Adam Thielen fared just as well as dearly departed WR Michael Thomas. This logic is irrelevant. The Hammerfest would not have come even close to losing to the Longships had Thomas and Thielen been on the roster. Last week, even though Thomas scored basically even with Rob Gronkowski, the prize the Hammerfest supposedly pillaged from the Syndrome, the Hammerfest would have had a clearer win had they not made the trade. Replace Gronk with Burton, and Sanders with Thomas, and the Hammerfest not only win that matchup more convincingly, they also win one and possibly two more matchups in prior weeks.
Mitch Kiper has a grading system that he usually keeps to himself to grade players. It’s based on a formula similar to how he calculates the overall league rankings, giving different positions variable weightings based on the percentage of total points the position contributes to a weekly score, as well as the scarcity of quality players at that position. Here is how Michael Thomas and Rob Gronkowski compare, along with some other players for reference:
While Rob Gronkowski scores more than Kenyan Drake, he is nowhere near as valuable, considering his composite output is basically that of a mid-to-low tier receiver. Note how the Hammerfest traded away a player who, by this system, is worth twice as much as Rob Gronkowski. If you argue the system, that’s cool too—it’s vague and arbitrary from your point of view. What you can’t argue is the ridiculous disparity in weekly FPG, and the fact that Rob Gronkowski is only better than 85% of the rostered TEs in the league, and Michael Thomas is better than every single WR in all of Dynosteve. Less than two percent of the NFL ranks higher than him.
Also, don’t look now, but…
Now it stands to reason that Gronk will do better now that the offense is opening up thanks to new addition Josh Gordon and new-old addition Julian Edelman. That said, from Mitch Kiper’s perspective, argue it however you want, this is still a bad trade. Hammerfest could have kept Michael Thomas and basically had the same production at TE. Adam Thielen to Michael Thomas is not the comparison you need to make. It’s Michael Thomas taking up one spot v. Gronk + Sanders taking up two, and the opportunity cost lost by making this trade.
SPECIAL FEATURE: BEN’S QBs
Last week, Bergen Ben Buccigross, sometimes referred to as the Better Benjamin Bureau or Best Bud Ben, came to Mitch Kiper with a request. Could he please analyze his QB situation and help him improve his decision making process? Being the helpful pal that he is, Mitch Kiper said yes, especially since he made scurrilous claims about the Boxtables QB situation in weeks prior.
Ideally, Mitch Kiper wanted to take the weekly C-PPG of each player and calculate a moving average, trying to track the trendlines of the two players Composite PPG over time. Unfortunately, Mitch Kiper has only been tracking his proprietary data for four weeks of this season. That would not be enough.
So, he took the pure FPPG data from both Brees and Watson, threw them onto a chart, and calculated a 4-game moving average to look at the trends of each player, and try to predict where their scores should range. Obviously, Watson’s 2017 injury puts a bit of a question mark on the process, but Mitch Kiper thinks this is one of the more reliable ways to use such a limited data set in such limited time (Mitch Kiper doesn’t like to spend more than an hour per week on these articles).
While Mitch Kiper would have loved to claim that Brees was the obvious choice here, the data seems to indicate that the picture isn’t so clear. Bergen’s weekly flummoxing is understandable. Both QBs have been trading weekly high scores. Right now, Brees is averaging higher than Watson. Yet based on historical data, we can probably expect a regression towards the 15-20 fppg range, which is where he sat all of last season. If we were to eliminate the gaping hole in Watson’s games, and measure them back to back (which Mitch Kiper could do, but once again, lazy), his moving average would be above that of Brees. Even now, Watson’s trendline looks primed to cross over Drew Bree’s trendline.
So who does Mitch Kiper recommend? Deshaun Watson. There are of course mitigating factors: Brees has a killer offense, arguably better than that of 2017. Watson’s WRs tend to get injured, and it’s possible that he could regress as defenses get more tape on him. But for now, Watson looks to be on the uptrend back to 2017 levels, while history says that Brees will likely calm down. Hope this helps, Mr. Buccigross. You sure are a Better Benjamin.
TOP FREE AGENTS:
Because I’ve done some longer features this week, I’m skipping free agency. You can see them on the fantasy website. There’s not much I can offer here that you can’t get yourself.
TAXI WATCH:
Here is the taxi squad as it currently stands, followed by relevant updates and changes:
- Nyheim Hines is still a stud. He’s better than over 75% of running backs currently on Dynosteve Rosters. Considering 75%+ is usually good enough to put you on a starting roster, the fact that he’s still on a Taxi squad is absurd. The fact that Goose can afford to keep him there is depressing.
- Most of the other taxi players have come back down to earth. Mark Andrews and Antonio Callaway might become intriguing once injuries and byes start to screw a couple teams, but otherwise these players are right where they should be.
LEAGUE OVERVIEW:
Finally, the league overview. Here’s how it looked before Tuesday’s waivers, and then after waivers. Both of these reflect the Week 4 stats.
- The swap at #1 and #2 comes from the Falls signing the Packers prior to the Week 04 games. Because it was a late-in-the-week move, it hadn’t factored in yet. This is another reason I’m moving to Saturdays. Also, props to Goose for making a small move with a seemingly decent impact.
- Gakusei Kai suffers a massive drop due to the loss of FitzMagic.
- The Fenoms are surprisingly high up there. We’ll see if the Cheefs can continue their run, or if cold weather will slow them down.
- Now that we’re starting to hit multiple bye weeks, watch out for the barebones benches of Gakuesei Kai and Stockholm Syndrome. Their inept depth will heavily contribute towards their likely path to the toilet this year.