A Good Dog Answers the Call
Welcome to the inaugural post of WKWYWF, an aspirationally weekly blog where I’ll be trying to determine the winner of Survivor through a combination of edit-reading, logic, and stealing the ideas of smarter people. I have three (and a half) core tenets of what I think Survivor wants the audience to see in their winner that will steer this process:
They want us to know our winner well (consistent visibility, clear POV, second-person viewpoints, etc)
The winner fits the themes of the season
They want the winner to face some adversity, but 3.5. Aside from that, the winner will also be shielded from looking bad/dumb as much as possible
Everything I write will either be related to the above or highly self-indulgent. TL;DR: My top picks so far are Kevin, Joe, and Eva since I have solid visibility into who they are and they seem to fit the most important themes of the season so far. Thoughts very much subject to change.
So, after episode 1 of Season 48...
Who do I feel like I know well?
Joe: This man has Jeremy Collins/Tom Westman upside. A leader who people gravitate to. Visible tank with strong “Daddy” energy. Wants to go deep with a group.
Eva: workhorse, personal and second-person viewpoint content, used to playing with men and beating them, worried about not being able to tell when people are lying to her.
Sai: Full send. Period. Exclamation mark.
David: Lots of muscles but insists he’s more than muscles. Acts like a jock sometimes but that’s just because it’s what people would expect from him.
Kevin: Golden retriever who wants to be Kim Spradlin and play the middle.
Kamilla: Chaos agent, and will have fun while doing it.
Thomas: Chameleon, listener. How did I end up with dudes?
Honorable mentions: Kyle, Chrissy, Justin
Themes
Answering the Call
Jeff was pretty OTT about this during mat chat. Simply, you have to give outsized weight to Jeff in determining themes because he a) is incentivized to make sure that every season of Survivor has a story and b) has more power than anyone else in molding/pigeonholing what the story is.
In short, Jeff is every heavy-handed editor I have not enjoyed working with, but hey, in this case, it helps.
What does this theme mean? To me, this means listeners do well. You need to be a person who others feel comfortable reaching out to, and someone who is able to appropriately meet people where they are.
Joe explicitly talked about wanting to be the person in the firehouse who picks up the call when there’s an emergency. Joe is then called upon by Eva when she needs someone to talk to, and affirms to her that he was the right person to call upon.
Thomas talked about how he wants to filter himself to fit the tribe.
Kevin, when he gets back to Vula (green), is “called” into an alliance by Sai. He answers the call and then feels like he’s the “King of Vula” and this changed his trajectory in the game.
The cryptogram that needs to be broken to get the beware immunity idol is…LISTEN.
And Kevin’s a “golden retriever,” per Mary. You know what a good dog does? It comes when called.
Losers Hesitate. Losers Also Attack.
Jeff’s mat chat also highlighted the different strategic ends of the spectrum a player could pursue in Survivor.
Importantly, in my opinion, both of these are framed in not-winning terms. You can “hesitate and left behind,” but, on the other hand, “just because you attack the game doesn’t mean you’ll be successful.”
The camera zoomed in on Bianca when Jeff said, “hesitate and be left behind,” and on Charity and Chrissy in the “just because you attack the game doesn’t mean you’ll be successful” bit.
When Jeff added, “failure in the pursuit of something amazing, that’s admirable,” we had the camera pan to David and Kamilla.
A shorthand story of the season could well be: Timid players get run over by people who are willing to take charge; the go-getters also end up not winning, but ultimately, the winner still exists.
Before getting eliminated, Steph says in her last confessional that she’s experiencing the complications of playing slightly less aggressive, and does not feel like I am calling the shots (camera zooms in on Kevin). Kevin’s calling the shots, even though Sai is the aggressive player here.
(What I am most worried about for this as a theme with staying power is that it’s a perfect description of the premiere’s arc alone; could tie a bow on it right there!)
But for now, I think this is a critical theme, and have even attempted to organize where each player stands on the scale. Players who a) I think know well already and b) are near the middle of these poles are in my poll position.
A small sub-set of this theme could be living in the gray zone: Eva talks about how she often views things as binary: success or failure, black and white, and being stuck in that mode can cause her to spiral; she needs help breaking out from this.
You’ve Got Male
This might be putting more logic than edit into the equation, but: Survivor 48, return of the patriarchy. We have a named “California Girls” alliance (consisting of Joe, Thomas, and Shauhin), and, reading on, I think there’s a risk/chance that group gets bigger.
The women on Vula (green) are too air-sign indecisive and astronomically inclined to jump on an alliance with Sai, so she roped together herself, Cedrek, Justin, and Kyle to not only vote together but also find and crack an idol together.
Thomas couldn’t believe that he was able to bond with Joe and Shauhin, nor that he was in (read: named!) an all-male alliance. Eva is also comfortable working with and being around guys.
Civa (orange) is the only tribe which hasn’t been pointed to as male-dominant, and even there, Charity has been pseudo-gaslit into becoming the target. (imho, that set up is almost too clear for that to actually happen!)
Teamwork Makes the Dream Work
I am very hesitant to call this a “theme” because I think the team idea is a very natural note to be hitting when you’re starting a reality TV show and getting divvied up into tribes.
But, this chord was struck A Lot.
Shauhin’s opening confessional: “We’re wild dogs, sizing each other up, we’re going to eat your lunch, other tribes!”
There’s a lot of sportsball types on Lagi (purple), as Thomas observed. Eva’s on the hockey team. Star’s a basketball player. There were frequent mentions by Joe about teamwork, both in confessionals and organically (“as a teammate, I got you”). Even though it’s corny, he’s big on the loyalty thing and wants to take a group to the end.
Kyle’s framing of the opening challenge was very team centric (I did my job but team lost, and I’m a member of the team). After losing the hero challenge, he noted that he wasn’t just letting himself down, but the team down.
As an aside, the best line of the entire episode, imo, was Kyle talking about showing up to the party late, empty-handed, with a costume on. He speaks so well that I think he’s a production favorite as narrator for Civa (orange) whenever possible.
I hope I can ditch this soon because the team emphasis seems to lend itself pretty well to a Pagonging.
Heroes
David’s opening: “You need to worry about me…I have no problem being the hero.” (Note: does not do Hero challenge)
David confessional: Am I the hero or the villain, maybe both
Joe: Wants to be A Good Guy, again, in confessionals and in chat (Dad, be good, Dad, lift wood). Second-person viewpoint content from Eva on how he’s not just strong, but also has such deep love for his family. Willing to stand with Eva even if it means he has to go home.
Eva: Acknowledged as a workhorse by pretty much everyone; Joe is proud of her/her parents for surpassing all expectations that doctors had placed on her.
There is literally a hero challenge (not uncommon, though)
Kevin: Thought he would be viewed as a liability after shoulder injury, turns out his tribe thinks he’s a hero after he comes back with supplies.
Kyle: Mirror-image of Kevin results wise in the Hero challenge, but gallantly helps Kevin finish the challenge after he pulls a Jake O’Kane-meets-Jelinsky and breaks shit, is called “stand-up guy.”
Easy Relationships (minor)
California girls: You <really> needed to put three dudes from the same state on one tribe? Heaven forbid us if they link up with rom-com loving David, a fellow Golden State-r who seemingly would love to be one of the girls. Or Kevin, a Californian who loves having options. Wait, over half the dudes on this season are from California? GMAFB. Where’s the representation for Canadians living in New York, huh?
Guyana Duo: Kinda feel like they wanted Kyle and Kamilla as a duo and so far, they are not disappointing. National loyalties can run deep, you know what else is deep? Holes. They both love that movie, too.
Who is facing adversity so far?
Winners are challenged. They don’t steamroll to the end.
Erica: edit said Luvu tried to throw a challenge to get her out, but Naseer just too good. Was isolated on Exile, needed hourglass twist to go from lamb to lion.
Maryanne may be the exception that proves the rule, but she was generally underestimated and 42 also had a “Why Mike Lost” kinda edit.
Gabler: Is this man so dumb he doesn’t know he still has an idol and we can blindside him? Elie vs Gabler showdown.
Yam Yam: On the crap tribe, bit of a Josh vs Yam Yam showdown at the merge.
Dee: Will Sifu figure out she put a vote on him? Is he about to vote for her when Kaleb successfully plays the shot in the dark?
Kenzie: On the crap tribe, potentially getting blindsided during Randen medevac.
Rachel: blindsided by Anika vote, seen as a target/threat.
I don’t think this is the most germane/pertinent thing to monitor just yet when it comes to giving way-too-early winner picks (because a lot of this is also going to be setting up reasons why people leave), but:
Charity: Getting set up to be the first boot on Civa (orange)
Kevin: Popped his shoulder
Kyle: “Failed twice in an hour,” had Charity attempt to paint a target on him
Sai: Has an idol, not everyone’s gonna love that (was framed more as a potential curse than blessing for first vote, at least, but that was probably just to add a bit of drama to the result)
Mary: On the wrong side of the numbers
Star: Caught looking for an idol
Who has been made to look dumb so far?
David: lots of dodo music whenever he talks; thinks Kyle is telling the truth when he isn’t
Mary: guilty by association with Steph, I fear. We’re meant to take Sai’s side.
Charity: only psychopaths like their steaks medium-well, per Kevin
Star: see above Putting this all together...
Winner Tiers
Top Tier (30% total)
Kevin, Joe
Next Up (12%)
Eva
Above-Average (35% total)
Kyle, Thomas, Justin, Shauhin, Cedrek
Below-Average (21% total)
Chrissy, Sai, Kamilla, Bianca, Mary, Charity, Star, David
Ready to Rule Out Soon (2%)
Mitch
(Note: orders within tiers is intentional)
A bit shout-out to Nick and Dan from The Winner’s Edit podcast — been reading/listening to them for years now and really deepened my appreciation of the show and inspired me to start putting my thoughts on digital paper. Highly recommend listening/joining TWE discord. Any good insights here likely gleaned through osmosis; any facepalms are my b.
