Early senate notes 2025
Took a look at the senate predictions and counts. Lots of states tend to have a 3/3 split left/right, this election is looking more like 4/2 favouring the left.
Big swing toward the greens too. In NSW and SA the greens are usually elected in position 5 or 6, and in the last election, the greens primary vote was about 0.8 quotas. (With 2 labor and 2 liberal elected before greens)
This year, greens are elected with over 1 quota in SA and NSW. That's a big gain, with Greens stealing one of the safe left seats from labor in these 2 states, and then the extra safe left seat this year being pulled from the Liberals' loss.
We have to wait and see of course, but this means the last seat in both states is likely to pull for Liberals rather than any of the niche racists or religious conservatives.
Other states not looking so hot though. Jacqui Lambie might lose her seat to the far right. Going to have to wait and see on that one.
