#exogenous shocks

[collapseofindustrialcivilization]

The Three Tightening Strands Of A Fragile World

Most arguments about the future of modern civilization revolve around timing and trajectory. Is collapse likely by 2100 or merely “possible”? Should we speak of polycrisis, tipping points, or resilience? Beneath the vocabulary, though, the research has converged on a simpler claim: we are running a civilization that is increasingly exposed on three fronts at once. The physical world is pushing…

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[iangarrickmason]

Crises, real and surreal, bring experience and wisdom. Humility is in order. It was in 1998; it is in 2015. I have no idea if a China rate-slash is linked to a Greece thunderbolt. I have no idea if the shocks across the Bloomberg TOP page or the twitter-flow are endogenous, exogenous or nongenous. What I do know is that public authorities will do all to maintain calm and control to bring successful resolution, or they will not. Markets will adjust at a speed marginally less fast than the Twitter vigilantes. People will live the first-derivative until the second-derivative is in their face. TRANSLATION: We will worry in a static fashion until we worry in a dynamic fashion that will abruptly shift from a worry and focus on the velocity of events to a piercing attention on the acceleration of events. We will mostly ignore the linkages or correlations between the events. Sweat will ensue.

Tom Keene on surviving (and learning humility from) exogenous shocks to the world economic system http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-27/don-t-sweat-maintain-exogenous-calm