Sarah Schulz
What if the chaos we’re living through isn’t random, but a last, loud push from something losing its grip?
Lately, I’ve been hearing about a concept from psychology called an “extinction burst,” and the more I read about it, the harder it is not to see it playing out in our politics. And the more I think about it, the more it gives me a bit of hope.
An extinction burst is what happens when a behavior that used to “work” stops getting the results it once did. Instead of fading away, it gets louder first. More intense. More extreme. Like a child who used to get attention by throwing a tantrum. When the tantrum stops working, the first response isn’t calm. It’s usually a bigger tantrum.
Here’s the hypothesis I can’t shake: the entire Trump era may be one long extinction burst. A set of political tactics built on fear, outrage, and division stopped delivering the same automatic power they once did, and instead of disappearing, they escalated. Like the temper tantrum.
I think back a little further, to the election of Barack Obama. For many, that moment symbolized a major cultural and political shift in who holds power and who belongs at the center of the national story. For some, it felt hopeful. For others, it felt like a loss of status and certainty. Looking back, this feels like one of the early sparks that set the conditions for the backlash and escalation that followed.
Tactics didn’t quietly lose their grip. The volume went up. The language got sharper. The lines got harder. Not because they were winning — but because they were starting to lose the automatic hold they enjoyed for generations.
I also want to be clear: real harm is happening right now. Families, communities, and lives are being affected in ways that aren’t theoretical. This idea names a pattern, it doesn’t make this moment any less real or painful.
Political researchers talk about something similar with the idea of status threat, when people feel their cultural or political dominance slipping, backlash often follows instead of reflection.
Layer on a media and social platform ecosystem that runs on outrage and attention, and the whole thing becomes self-feeding. The loudest, angriest voices travel the farthest. The most extreme claims get the most oxygen.
Here’s the part that gives me some hope.
In psychology, an extinction burst only keeps going if it keeps getting reinforced. It needs a reward, attention, fear, reaction - to survive. When that fuel runs out, the behavior eventually loses its power.
So maybe this moment isn’t just about things getting worse. Maybe it’s also about something old losing its hold.
And maybe what matters most right now isn’t just who we oppose, but what we choose to reinforce together. What we share. What we build. What we protect. What kind of political culture we decide is worth carrying forward.
Because if this really is a burst, what comes after it is still being written. And we’re all, in big and small ways, holding the pen.
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References & further reading: Extinction burst basics: https://www.simplypsychology.org/extinction-burst.html https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-an-extinction-burst... Status threat & political backlash: https://www.brookings.edu/.../why-status-threat-matters.../ https://www.jstor.org/stable/26736623 Outrage, media, and attention dynamics: https://www.theatlantic.com/.../why-outrage-works.../579286/ https://www.pewresearch.org/.../political-polarization.../
