Blair’s Electoral Time Bomb Under the Labour Party
The Conservatives now just need the final two pieces of the constitutional and electoral jigsaw puzzle to fall into place for them, removing Scotland's MPs from votes on English legislation and a boundary review that will give them electoral advantage. A Conservative Party hegemony (effectively an elected dictatorship) in England and Wales is now a distinct probability rather than just a remote possibility. How did our democracy get to this desperate position?
'We're Alright!'
Labour had been unexpectedly defeated by John Major's Conservative Party in 1992 under the First Past the Post electoral system and the impact on the morale of the Labour Party was truly devastating. Neil Kinnock's defeated Party had led to the probability of at least eighteen consecutive years of power for the Conservative Party.
The First Past the Post (FPTP) Electoral System
The First Past the Post voting system was designed for a different age of two party politics where there were a far larger number of marginal seats. The increase in vote share for smaller parties together with the massive reduction in marginal seats (down from over 160 in 1955 to below 90 in 2010 (Source: IPPR) means that FPTP is now very damaging to the UK's democracy. There is a strong incentive for both major parties to focus on developing policies to win the small number of floating votes in marginal seats as these are the votes that win elections, meaning that policies tend to converge on that very narrow demographic. Further, any changes to constituency boundaries can have a massive effect on the outcome of general elections for each of the major parties, leaving the review process susceptible to gerrymandering. 1974 and 2010 are examples of when FPTP has failed to deliver a decisive victor in the general election, resulting in a hung Parliament, Pact or Coalition Government.
John Smith's Labour Considers Electoral Reform
In 1992 to 1993, debate in the Labour Party was in full swing over whether it should embrace electoral reform for Westminster Parliamentary Elections. The chosen vehicle for this examination was the Plant Commission headed by Professor Raymond Plant under the watchful eye of Labour's new leader, John Smith. Although John Smith was on the centre right of the Labour Party, he was an inclusive man and saw merit in the debate within the Party over electoral reform going ahead even though the main movers of this debate were on the democratic left, whose main figurehead was Robin Cook.
By the end of March 1993, the Commission, headed by Lord Plant, professor of politics at Southampton University, voted by 10 to 6 against keeping the present scheme for electing MPs - while, as predicted by the Independent, a narrower 9-7 majority decided it should be replaced with a 'supplementary vote' (SV) system that would retain constituency links.
Had SV been used for the 1992 election, the Liberal Democrats would have won 45 to 48 seats instead of 20, predominantly in the South of England, producing a hung Parliament.
The decision set the tone for a closely-fought debate in the party.
Campaigners for change said Labour must present the prospect of a more representative system well before the next election. SV would allow voters to exercise first and second choices in a single ballot. Candidates who score 50 per cent of the vote would win outright. In all other cases, those with the highest number of votes after second preferences are added in would win.
While the scheme would have retained the first-past-the-post principle, and still called for tactical voting, it would have ensured a fairer distribution of seats in relation to parties' shares of the vote.
The move's significance was underlined by Anthony Barnett, co-ordinator of Charter 88, the constitutional campaigning group. He said: 'It's great that Labour has gone for change, even if we would prefer something more proportional.' Voters should be allowed a referendum, he added.
The commission overwhelmingly backed regional 'list' PR systems for the European Parliament and a second chamber to replace the Lords.
Blairism
Tragically, John Smith died suddenly of a heart attack in 1994. Tony Blair was elected as leader of the Labour Party and embarked on a project to 'modernise' the Party. Ostensibly this involved rebranding to New Labour, ditching references to Labour's socialist past, reducing the influence of its Trade Union backers and moving the policy platform well to the right of centre.
Plans for electoral reform were effectively shelved by the incoming Labour government in 1997 when the party won a 179 seat majority under first past the post. Lip service was paid but the reality was that FPTP was there to stay for Labour.
Devolution - The Time Bomb Starts Ticking
Blair's New Labour Government elected in 1997 acted quickly in giving referenda to the people of Scotland and Wales to determine if they wanted devolution of powers to their own Parliament or Assembly. Both voted in favour resulting in the Scots establishing their own Parliament at Holyrood in Edinburgh with tax varying power and the Welsh setting up the welsh assembly in Cardiff with less devolved power than its Scottish counterpart. Both new chambers elect their Members on a proportional electoral system but in addition, each country continues to send MP's to the Westminster Parliament under the First Past the Post voting system.
Referendum on AV for General Elections 2011
When Blair's New Labour rejected electoral reform, the time bomb started ticking towards a Conservative hegemony in England. 13 years later, the Conservative Party saw its chance, first by sabotaging the Liberal Democrat's demanded referendum on a more proportional voting system by limiting it to Alternative Vote (not very proportional) and campaigning against it and secondly by pushing for a further review of Parliamentary Constituency boundaries that most considered would favour the Conservative Party. The Conservatives were thwarted by their coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats refusing to support the review out of spite rather than conviction.
Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Although the majority of Scots voted to remain within the United Kingdom, promises were made to them by the 'Better Together' campaign before the vote that further powers would be devolved to Scotland including a tight timetable for the necessary legislation.
Rather than allow this legislation to proceed without pre-condition, David Cameron saw an opportunity to link a resolution of 'The West Lothian Question' (i.e. Scotland's Constituency MP's being able to vote on exclusively English legislation in Westminster) to the progress or otherwise of further powers for the Scottish Parliament.
The End Game?
The Conservatives now just need the final two pieces of the constitutional and electoral jigsaw puzzle to fall into place for them, removing Scotland's MPs from votes on English legislation and a boundary review that will give them electoral advantage. A Conservative Party hegemony (effectively an elected dictatorship) in England and Wales is now a distinct probability rather than just a remote possibility.
The road to this fearful risk leads right back to Blair's replacement of John Smith and his subsequent landslide victory in the 1997 General Election. For reasons of political greed, Blair saw no reason for electoral reform for Westminster elections and kicked it into the very long grass to die.
The fact is that with deepening devolution for Scotland and possibly Wales, the need for a proportional voting system for Westminster elections becomes crucial to safeguard democracy and political diversity in England in the 21st Century. That has to be worth fighting for for all supporters of progressive democratic politics.
