Today (Monday, August 24, 2020), E! News reported that Joy–Anna (Duggar) + Austin Forsyth welcomed a healthy baby girl. Their daughter was born Friday, August 21, 2020, at 2:12 PM, without any complications. Joy told E! News—
“To say my heart is full would be an understatement. We have been dreaming of this day and are so happy to announce that our baby girl [has] arrived... We are grateful for all the love and prayers that have come our way during this pregnancy.”
E! News didn’t get the exclusive to the name, apparently, but told us to watch the Forysths’ social media pages.
Baby Forsyth #2 was due on my birthday (8/19) and I’m a little bitter that she came 2 days late lol
i’m so unbelievably happy for joy and austin. the look of just pure bliss on joy’s face— she really was aptly named. my heart broke for them after they lost annabelle. i’m so happy that baby girl is healthy and happy.
On Friday, August 21, 2020 at, 2:12 PM, Joy–Anna (Duggar) Forsyth gave birth to a baby girl. Joy + Austin also have a son, Gideon Martyn (b. 2018), and had another daughter, Annabell Elise (d. June 2019, at 20 Weeks Gestation). Joy + Austin haven’t announced their latest addition’s name yet, so Duggar Data will refer to her as “Baby Girl” or “Forsyth #2*” in this Post.
How does Forsyth #2* shift the Forsyth and Duggar Family Data? Read on!
Timing of...
Baby News
The Forsyths went public with Pregnancy #2* on Wednesday, March 18, 2020, via a YouTube video. (Previously, they’ve announced their pregnancies via the media—specifically, People and Us Weekly—but apparently opted against any media fanfare this time around.) In that video, Joy revealed that her Due Date was August 19, 2020. (See Also.) Doing the math, she was 128 Days Along—i.e., Exactly 18 Weeks—on the Announcement Date.
Effect on Joy + Austin’s Data—Prior to this, the Forsyths waited until Joy was 96 Days Along, on average, to publicly announce a pregnancy. That is based on their two prior Pregnancy Announcements—Gideon’s (at 104 Days Along), and Annabell’s (at 88 Days Along). (Annabell’s Data is included because they announced the pregnancy before the loss.) Adding in Announcement #3, it’s now Forsyth–typical to announce at 106 Days Along (15 Weeks, 1 Day)—i.e., 10 Days Later.
Effect on the Duggar Family Data—Until the Forsyths’ 3rd Announcement, the ‘typical’ Duggar Pregnancy Announcement occurred at 95 Days (13 Weeks, 4 Days) Along. Factoring in the Forsyths’ Announcement, that shifted ever–so–slightly to 96 Days Along (13 Weeks, 5 Days; 1 Day Later).
Since then, there has been two more Duggar Pregnancy Reveals. Here’s how the average shifted—
Pre–Forsyth #2* 95 (94.65) Days Along
+ Forsyth #2* 96 (96.39) Days Along
+ Vuolo #2* 97 (96.84) Days Along
+ Duggar–Caldwell #3 97 (97.00) Days Along (Assuming a Due Date of February 15, 2021, which is a rough estimate.)
Sex Reveal
The Forsyth’s revealed Forsyth #2*’s sex with the Pregnancy Announcement on March 18, 2020. Again, Joy was 128 Days—or, Exactly 18 Weeks—Along.
Effect on Joy + Austin’s Data—This was the Forsyths’ first Sex Reveal prior to a live birth. (They didn’t do one for Gideon. With Annabell, they revealed the sex at the same time they announced they’d lost the pregnancy. Duggar Data does not count that as a Sex Reveal, due to the unique circumstances.) As a result, there’s no data to analyze, here... It’s Forsyth–typical to reveal a baby’s sex at 128 Days Along, as they did this time, or skip it entirely, as with Gideon.
Effect on the Duggar Family Data—Until Forsyth #2*, Duggar Couples did a pre–birth Sex Reveal in 76% of pregnancies. (Not counting pregnancies that ended in loss.) It was typical to do the Sex Reveal at 151 Days Along—i.e., 21 Weeks, 4 Days. Adding in Forsyth #2*’s Sex Reveal, that average dropped to 149 Days Along (21 Weeks, 2 Days; 2 Days Earlier). Since then, Vuolo #2*’s Sex Reveal shifted the average yet again, to 146 Days Along (20 Weeks, 6 Days; 3 Days Earlier).
Name Reveal
As of August 24, 2020, 2:00 PM Pacific, Joy + Austin haven’t announced their baby’s name. While it is ‘typical’ for Duggar Couples to reveal the baby’s with the Birth Announcement, the Forsyths aren’t the first Duggar Couple to wait... Jessa + Ben waited several days to announce Spurgeon and Henry’s names.
Delivery (vs. Due Date)
Baby Girl Forsyth was born at 2:12 PM on Friday, August 21, 2020. Joy’s Due Date was August 19, 2020—so, Baby Girl was 2 Days Late.
Effect on Joy + Austin’s Data—Prior to this, it was ‘typical’ for Joy to deliver 1 Day Late, since that’s when she had Gideon. (Gideon’s was due February 22, 2018, but arrived on February 23.) (For obvious reasons, Annabell’s data isn’t factored in on this variable.) Now after 2 Live Births, it’s ‘typical’ for Joy–Anna to deliver 1.5 Days Late—but, since the Predictor doesn’t handle partial days, let’s round that to 2 Days Late. That’s 1 Day Later than Joy had Gideon.
Effect on the Duggar Family Data—GrandDuggars 1 (Mackynzie) to 17 (Gracie) arrived 2 (1.75) Days Early, on average. Factoring in Forsyth #2*, there’s really No Significant Change. There’s a minimal shift—i.e., 1.75 Days Early to 1.53 Days Early—but it remains 2 Days Early, rounded.
Effect on the Duggar Daughters’ Data—If we set aside the Daughters–In–Law, and look only at the biological Duggar Daughters’ data, their Delivery vs. Due Date data shifts, as follows: Up until Joy’s 2nd Live Birth, Duggar Daughters had their babies 2 (2.00) Days Late, on average. Factoring in Forsyth #2*, No Significant Change; it remains 2 Days Late. (Also, Forsyth #2* happened to be 2 Days Late, so fancy that!)
Birthweight & Length
At birth, Baby Girl Forsyth was 8 Pounds, 5 Ounces and 19.5 Inches Long, according to E! News, Joy, and Austin.
Effect on Joy + Austin’s Data—The Forsyths’ Firstborn, Gideon, weighed a hefty 10 Pounds, 3 Ounces, at birth, and was 22 Inches Long. (Gideon is the record–holding Heaviest GrandDuggar, as of August 2020.) Factoring in Baby Girl, it is now ‘typical’ for a Forsyth infant to be 9 Pounds, 4 Ounces and 20.75 Inches Long, at birth—i.e., 15 Ounces Lighter and 1.25 Inches Shorter than before.
Effect on the Duggar Family Data—Until now, your ‘typical’ GrandDuggar was born at 8 Pounds, 7.55 Ounces and 20.87 Inches Long. Factoring in Forsyth #2*, that shifts to 8 Pounds, 7.42 Ounces (–0.13 Ounce) and 20.79 Inches (–.08 Inch).
Effect on the Duggar Daughters’ Data—Again, let’s separate out the biological Duggar Daughters. They tend to have pretty big babies... Pre–Forsyth #2*, it was ‘typical’ for their newborns to be 9 Pounds, 2 Ounces and 21.43 Inches Long. Now, it’s 'typical’ is 9 Ounces, 0.4 Ounces (–1.6 Ounces) and 21.19 Inches (–0.24 Inches).
Labor Details
At this point, we don’t know the details; however, E! News did report that Joy delivered “without any complications.”
2nd Child Multiplier
Baby Girl Forsyth is a 2nd Child, so her Child Spacing impacts the 2nd Child Multiplier. (Note—Annabell’s Theoretical Spacing also impacts the 2nd Child Multiplier, since she also would’ve been a 2nd Child.) Until Baby Girl Forsyth #2*, it was ‘typical’ for Duggar Couples’ 2nd Spacing to be 1.5049x their 1st Child Spacing. Factoring in Forsyth #2*, that shifts to 1.4605x, which means 2nd Children will be expected to arrive slightly faster than before.
Procreative Pace / ESOQ
Joy + Austin lost Annabell Elise on June 26, 2019. Baby Girl Forsyth #2* was born 422 Days Later, on August 21, 2020. Joy + Austin’s Child Spacings are as follows—
273 Days Marriage to Gideon
533 Days Gideon to Annabell (Theoretical)
422 Days Loss of Annabell to Baby Girl
Procreative Pace (or Average Child Spacing) is what determines how rapidly any given couple’s next “blessing” will arrive. Procreative Pace is set at the average of all of that couple’s child spacings, except Marriage–to–Firstborn.
Before Baby Girl, Joy + Austin’s Procreative Pace was simply 533 Days—or, their Theoretical Gideon–to–Annabell Spacing—since they only had the one non–Firstborn Spacing. Now, their Procreative Pace is set at an average of their Gideon–to–Annabell and Annabell–to–Baby Girl Spacings... Doing the math, it comes out to 478 Days—or, 55 Days Faster than before.
At that Procreative Pace, Joy + Austin’s ESOQ is 17 Children. Immediately after they lost Annabell, their ESOQ at the 533–Day Procreative Pace would have been 15 Children. So, that’s a gain of +2 Children. (Note—There’s no gain over the most–recent ESOQ Post, since that Post already incorporated their Tentative Loss to Baby Girl Spacing, based on Joy’s Due Date and her typical Delivery vs. Due Date.)
When To Expect Forsyth #3
At this point, here’s when the Predictor expects Forsyth #3—
Why is trying for a VBAC great? You're shaming women who get multiple c-sections. C-sections save lives and it doesn't make women lesser mothers.
Oh my God. I’m not shaming anyone. Nothing that I said can be construed as suggesting that C–Section moms are “lesser mothers.” Please get a grip.
Trying for a VBAC is great for most women. Vaginal birth means no surgery, a shorter hospital stay, and an easier recovery. Also, repeat C–Sections can put the mother at risk of certain complications in future pregnancies, including placenta accreta. Obviously, a VBAC isn’t possible for all. I never said it was.
I think it’s great that, after a C–Section and stillbirth, Joy seems to be planning a hospital birth. I think it’s great that she is taking steps towards a safe delivery. I hope the VBAC will go well for her! If it doesn’t, I’m glad that she will be in a place where she can quickly and safely get another C–Section or other treatment for her or the baby.
Ok, this lack of news from Joy is getting weird. Did you think we would go this long without a birth announcement?
Her Due Date was August 19, 2020—so, technically, she’s well within ‘normal,’ even if she hasn’t had the baby yet. Personally, I thought she would give birth last week. After what she said about her doctor not wanting her to go past her Due Date, I expected the baby to arrive within a few days of August 19th. It’s possible she delivered on Friday or this weekend. If so, I think they’ll announce today (Monday). If they don’t announce today, I’d guess she’s still waiting.
All I’ll say is that I hope Joy is being well–monitored by a competent OB or CNM. I know inducing post–C–Section isn’t ideal; her odds at a VBAC are better with a spontaneous labor. But, having a large baby also isn’t ideal, and Gideon was >10 Pounds! I hope maybe the baby is measuring smaller, and they feel it’s safe to wait for a spontaneous labor. I just want her to have a safe delivery. I’m really rooting for her. After her loss, I can’t help but root for her. I know, I know... This is supposed to be a snark blog. Snark, snark! But, I just can’t snark about this. I hope Joy has a safe, easy birth and a healthy baby.
