Gao Sheng thinks, the powerful macroscopical environment disadvantageous that enterprise spend the solar energy of financial situation is essential, still the solar energy of Germany has advantages in this respect.
Gao Sheng released the report on October 21, analyzed the recent tendency of the Chinese solar energy trade. Because the country replenishes reducing and global credit squeeze to cause investor's worry to income risk to rise, the inner Chinese solar energy enterprises of Gao Sheng's research range have dropped in the stock price of the past one months by 48.2%, and it is 20.3% to mark 500 general exponential amount of decrease. Gao Sheng, to spreading out the thin earning rate (fully diluted earnings) in an all-round way from 2008 to 2010 Expectancy under repair 27% until 15%,it is expected on average amount of decrease raise as 14% to 15% from 8% to 10% before this at price, among them in that the view that the credit environment tightens and replenishes the prospect to the global solar energy at present is more conservative, Gao Sheng thinks this may let the price of the module further afford and descent the pressure.
Gao Sheng thinks the powerful financial situation is essential to spending the nowadays unfavorable macroscopical environment, the reason includes: 1)Gao Sheng thinks that reducing the financing clause will relieve the increscent financial pressure, reduce the fluctuation of the income; 2)The financial elasticity produced in normal investment can help enterprises to resist the recent credit question, and draw advantage from opportunity of long-term growth; 3)Improve because of avoiding dangerous ability, the ones that should contribute to resisting the stock price in healthy financial situation glide (worsen with the credit market, investors will care about the fluidity and sufficient rate of the cash) of the company even more . Because investment strategy guard and the intersection of business efficiency and relative great, Gao Sheng it expects to be still the intersection of Germany and solar energy keep powerful financial situation, but Gao Sheng thinks Trina Solar (TSL, 14.91 dollars, neutral) Excessive for expansion for plan financial situation of lasting it.
Gao Sheng reduce the grading that major cause of the goal price is the whole trade in 12 months and is reduceds. Gao Sheng discount the intersection of estimate value and method from cash flow law change the intersection of PEG and law to ' Relative profit rate of increase of the p/e ratio) . Gao Sheng thinks PEG law can reflect the risk payback and possibility of the economic growth in near middle period better, Gao Sheng thinks investors pay close attention to these questions under the present environment even more. What Gao Sheng maintained to STP is bought in and grading, and basic side and possible technological break-through expected to be powerful will promote its stock price to go strong. Gao Sheng Great Britain favourable martial prowers ' 6.18 dollars) Grading if you can't regulate to, buy in from at being neutral,think there are investors by raw materials overly because it, and its value is attractive. Gao Sheng regulates the grading of TSL to neutrally selling, because it thinks nowadays its stock price has already reflected the income risk that Gao Sheng has been worrying. Gao Sheng keeps to the brilliant solar energy of Australia (JASO, 6.54 dollars, neutral) , LDK Solar (LDK, 21.72 dollars, neutral) And Solarfun (SOLF, 7.5 dollars, neutral) Neutral grading.
Gao Sheng thinks the upstream risk lies in the encouragement effect of the policy and income in the third quarter of 2008 are better than expected, and there were more favorable guidance surfaces hereafter. And the risk of descenting lies in the weaker than expectancy of the demand, and the profit glides and unfavorable instructing the face to be bad in expectancy.