2024 Hurricane Season Breaks an Unusual Record, Thanks to Hot Water
The 2024 hurricane season has already made history, setting an unprecedented record that highlights the stark contrast between Atlantic and Pacific storm activity. For the first time since satellite monitoring began in 1966, the Atlantic basin has generated more accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) than the entire Pacific Ocean through early July. This unusual phenomenon is largely attributed to the exceptionally warm water temperatures across much of the North Atlantic. Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University, explains that these abnormally high ocean temperatures are influencing storm activity in both oceans, albeit in opposite ways. In the Atlantic, the warm waters have fueled an active start to the hurricane season. The region has already experienced several named storms, including the powerful Hurricane Beryl in early July. This early season activity has contributed to the record-breaking ACE levels, which measure the total energy of a hurricane season based on storm frequency and maximum wind speeds.
Conversely, the Pacific has seen an unusually quiet start to its tropical cyclone season. The western North Pacific experienced only one typhoon in May, and for only the second time on record since 1950, it went without a named storm from June 1 to July 15. In the eastern North Pacific, Tropical Storm Aletta's formation on July 4 marked the latest start to the season on record in that region. Scientists attribute this lack of Pacific storm activity to several factors, including the absence of a strong monsoon trough in the western North Pacific and excessive easterly wind shear in the eastern North Pacific. Interestingly, the warm Atlantic waters are contributing to these conditions by influencing global wind patterns. The dramatic spike in tropical Atlantic water temperatures from March to June 2024 has persisted, creating a La Niña-like circulation pattern. This pattern reduces westerly wind shear in the Atlantic, making conditions more favorable for storm formation. However, it increases easterly winds in the eastern North Pacific, hindering tropical storm development in that region. While it's still early in the hurricane season, forecasters predict above-normal activity for the Atlantic basin. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts 17 to 25 named storms, including 8 to 13 hurricanes, of which 4 to 7 could become major hurricanes.
As the season progresses, researchers will continue to study the influence of climate change and other factors on tropical cyclone patterns. The unusual start to the 2024 season serves as a reminder of the complex interplay between oceanic and atmospheric conditions in shaping hurricane activity across different regions.
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