I'm curious because we're about to hit it in Nein Again (and your recent Augen Trust posts): What are your thoughts on how Matt (and the cast) handle the Nein entering the tunnels in Felderwin and ultimately walking to Xhorhas? Do you think he was giving signals that the party either heeded or ignored? I think he could have done more to turn them around (and some of the cast were expecting this) if he was really tied to the AT arc, but he didn't, and it ends up such a defining part of the story!
So I skimmed the transcripts as I have not been able to keep up with the rewatch, and it looks like the party was exclusively considering either escorting Luc somewhere; following the tunnels; or trying to attack members of the Cerberus Assembly. They also consider maybe leaning on allies, specifically Yussa or people they knew in Zadash. The party explores the tunnels pretty thoroughly and decides to take them once Caduceus Communes with the Wildmother and confirms Yeza was taken to Rosohna, and when they realize said tunnels continue quite far.
I think the Commune scene is where Matt's like "you're not right on their trail - this was some time ago", but at this point, Rosohna (they're still calling it Ghor Dranas at this time actually) is the location of Yeza; it is something Caduceus feels is a sign; it is a place where apparently people are doing time magic outside of the Empire (ie, Caleb's whole motivation), and Beau says "I oddly feel more comfortable going to Ghor Dranas than I do going to Rexxentrum." Jester's up for adventure, Yasha is being jaegered by Matt and Travis so she's not super weighing in, and Fjord has no particular strong pull and is holding back from taking charge post-Pirates arc, so like...everyone either has reason to go there, has reason not to go to the Empire, or is neutral. I think Matt was giving signals this would be difficult, but like, the Nein at this point were already pretty formidable in combat and good at navigation and handling strange territories and were well-bonded as a team, so that was probably just going to read to them as "noted, this is going to be difficult, but it's what most of us want, so let's go."
I do think Matt could have done more! The obvious and easy ways to have done this were either to collapse the tunnel further such that the party did not think it was at all a viable option; or to make it so that Old Edith was unwilling to leave or Bryce was unwilling to help. This would have pretty much forced them to act quickly and involve some form of local authorities to connect them to more important allies who could negotiate for Yeza's return, and probably would have brought them to Zadash or Rexxentrum.
To lightly rehash what I said earlier, and something @captainofthetidesbreath said in the replies, the point where Matt should have at minimum questioned whether the Augen Trust arc would ever hold appeal for this party was, arguably, the point where he and Liam ironed out the concept for Caleb Widogast. Like, genuinely, it was not going to happen unless it was the only viable option the party could see. The Mighty Nein don't work with the major imperial powers until they are literally dragged before the King and tasked with brokering peace lest they be accused of treason, and that happens to align with their pre-existing goals and serve both the Empire and the Dynasty equally. So he could have corralled the party into working with the Augen Trust in order to save Yeza, but he didn't. I think he handled the alternative well and I agree, it became campaign-defining.
If I can return to the point I made in my posts - that perhaps Matt's greatest weakness as a DM, even when he's at the top of his game, is that he doesn't always realize what his party wants and what they will or will not do, especially early on in a campaign - I think it's important to consider this in the context of some of his other DM traits. Notably: he is incredibly willing to yes-and a situation and try to work with what the players are pursuing; and he tends to have a pretty solid idea of what the worldstate is independent of his PCs, and while he doesn't treat that as completely immutable, he often does stick with things that, if he changed them, might make motivating/guiding the players (or, in more serious cases, telling a good story) easier.
What I mean by that second point is that in D&D it's really normal for most DMs to be like "oh hmmmm the tunnels? oh the party is looking at the tunnels? I don't think that's a path I want them to take, so those are going to be collapsed and impassible." I think Matt very likely had decided that these were not fully impassible already - that they just collapsed a little bit so that it wasn't obviously a means for Empire forces to follow, but they kept most of it, not in the least because they were going to reuse these to attack Rexxentrum later - and so when the Nein decided to take this option, they could, and in doing so, yet again find a solution that did not require working with the Empire.
This, to be clear, is a double-edged sword. I think this trait is why Exandria can feel so incredibly real and vibrant - the world turns outside of just the PCs - and when we consider Matt's willingness to yes-and and pivot, it is why Campaign 2 has such a compelling emergent narrative, because the Mighty Nein keep actively pursuing unusual and unexpected options and they're able to do so. However, this does require the ability to turn on a dime and react very quickly to the unexpected (including a party that doesn't know what they want) and when we pair it with the fact that Matt doesn't always pick up on what will motivate the party, it can lead to, well, Campaign 3. It's like...if you're a runner, and you're not terribly efficient but you're young and in incredible shape and rested, you can go fast on sheer power but you're going to use a lot of energy very quickly in doing so. If you're tired, or as you age, or if you get a minor injury, you're going to have to focus much more on form than you used to because you can't rely on that power anymore. I think Matt is an immensely talented DM in many ways, but C3 showed that when he isn't pivoting quickly - when he can't drop the planned plot and do what the characters actually want, ie, not the moon plot - it doesn't work that well.
I think the other point where this can be an issue is that sometimes he goes so far into "what would the character do" that he forgets that it makes for a shitty story. This is frankly why Delilah and Ludinus wore out their welcome. Like, yeah, powerful wizards, especially one who is a necromancer and one who has a grand plan for which he has been extending his life via nefarious means probably would have a back up plan in the event of their demise; however, have we considered that this is deeply unsatisfying as a narrative. When deployed thoughtfully, this leads to stories that resonate deeply and worlds that feel immersive, but like. To go back to Campaign 3, the idea that Bells Hells' indecision is "real" fails to convince me it makes for a good story - it might be real to your experience, that you and your friends cannot decide where to get dinner, but like, first off, I hate when this happens in real life and do all I can to avoid it (for more, see the Food Captain slideshow on Smartypants as presented by Jess McKenna) and second off I do not labor under the illusion that anyone, including my friends and I, wish to watch a show where this is what is happening for hours on end, unless they made it funny in a Broad City sort of way in which case I as the viewer would still only be experiencing it for the length of a sitcom. You know what else is real? People dying and staying dead. That's an experience where I do in fact want to explore what that means in fiction, as there are deep and complex emotions involved there in a way there aren't in such situations as trying to reach harmony between one person thinks anything more than ketchup is too spicy shooting down every option except for McDonalds and another person who is vegan in the pre-Impossible Burger era.
Incidentally, and I could very well be wrong here, but I also think this is why I'm rather less concerned about Brennan burning out despite doing multiple shows as a DM: I think he is both more willing to say no to the players; and more willing to leave non-foundational world elements nebulous in his head so that he can flip that switch as needed to guide the players where he wants them to go, which means that the level of sheer power and effort is much reduced.
Anyway, I digress, but yeah, I think it would not have been terribly difficult to steer the Mighty Nein into the Augen Trust. I'm glad he didn't! I think the Xhorhas arc is a massive, defining moment and I think that showing the war with the party as allies of the "unexpected" side after doing all that setup showing how the Kryn were perceived in the Empire as nightmarish is incredibly affecting, even if it wasn't how he originally envisioned the campaign to go. I think that Yasha, Fjord, and Caleb's arcs might have been far less satisfying had they taken the Empire options (the only character who I think did suffer a bit was Beau, but only in the details of her Cobalt Soul relationship; I think Marisha's character work of her discovering her self worth and what she wanted to be remain excellent) and I think, again, because the point of the story was to establish Wildemount as a setting and Dunamancy as a concept and introduce Ludinus and Aeor, the Augen Trust arc was but one means to reach that end and was not the only way, so killing that darling ended up working out.
