Trump could make this year’s hurricane season deadlier.
We really do need to be concerned about NOAA. Nitwits with Sharpies are no substitute for professional weather forecasting.
Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict “above-average” activity this season, with six to 10 hurricanes. The season runs from June 1 to November 30. At least three of those storms will be Category 3 or higher, the forecasters project, meaning they will have gusts reaching at least 111 miles per hour. Other reputable forecasts predict a similarly active 2025 season with around nine hurricanes. Last year, there were 11 Atlantic hurricanes, whereas the average for 1991 to 2020 was just over seven, according to hurricane researchers at Colorado State University. A highly active hurricane season is obviously never a good thing, especially for people living in places like Florida, Louisiana, and, apparently, North Carolina (see: Hurricane Helene, the deadliest inland hurricane on record). Even when government agencies that forecast and respond to severe storms — namely, NOAA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) — are fully staffed and funded, big hurricanes inflict billions of dollars of damage, and they cost lives. Under the Trump administration, however, these agencies are not well staffed and face steep budget cuts. Hundreds of government employees across these agencies have been fired or left, including those involved in hurricane forecasting. What could go wrong?
Warm seas act like jet fuel for developing storms. The Caribbean and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico have been getting hotter and hotter.
If this sounds familiar, that’s because the Caribbean has been unusually warm for a while now. That was a key reason why the 2024 and 2023 hurricane seasons were so active. Warm ocean water, and its ability to help form and then intensify hurricanes, is one of the clearest signals — and consequences — of climate change. Data indicates that climate change has made current temperatures in parts of the Caribbean and near Florida several (and in some cases 30 to 60) times more likely.
Thanks to DOGE, we have fewer forecasters studying worsening conditions.
[U]nder the Trump administration, hundreds of workers at NOAA have been fired or otherwise pushed out, which threatens the accuracy of weather forecasts that can help save lives. FEMA has also lost employees, denied requests for hurricane relief, and is reportedly ending door-to-door canvassing in disaster regions designed to help survivors access government aid.
Forecasting depends on observations and taking readings. There's less of that under Trump.
As my colleague Umair Irfan has reported, the National Weather Service is also launching weather balloons less frequently, due to staffing cuts. Those balloons measure temperature, humidity, and windspeed, providing data that feeds into forecasts.
Perhaps the only thing that might cause a reversal of this stupidity in the near future is back-to-back direct hits by hurricanes at Mar-a-Lago and the SpaceX launch site near the Texas-Mexico border.
Related: Trump disasters will become more expensive...
Trump Is Going to Raise Your Insurance Premiums
