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Important info on changing ICE tactics!!
Trump retreats on Insurrection Act threat
January 17, 2025
Robert B. Hubbell
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Trump retreats on Insurrection Act threat
There was good news on several fronts on Friday. Trump backed down—for now—on his threat to invoke the Insurrection Act to send troops to Minneapolis. See NYTimes, Trump Backs Down on Insurrection Act as Democrats Take the Offensive. (Gift article, available to all.)
There were several factors that contributed to Trump’s reversal, including (a) a plea by Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to “turn the temperature down,” (b) pushback (read: outrage) from Democrats in Congress over the threat; and (c) a sinking realization within the Trump administration that invoking the Insurrection Act would likely be overruled in the courts. See Mark Joseph Stern and Steve Vlaedeck in Slate, Donald Trump’s Insurrection Act threat: Why the president hasn’t sent the military into Minneapolis.
As noted in yesterday’s newsletter, the predicate for invoking the Insurrection Act is missing. Federal officials are able to enforce federal law in Minneapolis, as evidenced by the ongoing arrests and detentions of immigrants subject to deportation. Invocation of the Act would be justified only if the federal government could not enforce federal law without the aid of federal troops.
But more importantly, Trump’s advisers in the White House are waking up to the fact that the cruel, militaristic tactics used by ICE are angering the American people as never before. See Axios, Trump’s immigration erosion worries his team. Per Axios,
President Trump’s team recently reviewed private GOP polling that showed support for his immigration policies falling. The results, reflected in public surveys, bolstered internal concern about the administration’s confrontational enforcement tactics. [¶] The private polling suggested a rupturing of the coalition of independent, moderate and minority voters who were key parts of Trump’s victory in 2024. Such voters will play a big role in determining whether Republicans keep their slim House majority in November’s midterms. If Republicans lose the House, Trump will head into his final two years in office as a lame duck who, he acknowledges, could face a third impeachment.
If Trump’s advisers are truly “suddenly” waking up to the fact that terrorizing the American people is unpopular, the question is, “What took them so long to understand a fact so simple that a kindergartner could grasp the concept upon first hearing?”
The answer, in large part, is Stephen Miller, who apparently harbors a deep hatred of immigrants—such as his grandparents and great grandparents, who immigrated to America in early 1900s. See Dr. David Glosser, Politico Magazine, (8/13/2018), Stephen Miller Is an Immigration Hypocrite. I Know Because I’m His Uncle.
The private poll numbers that shocked Trump’s advisers probably won’t change the central dynamic driving the ICE reign of terror. Trump won’t admit that he is wrong, Miller won’t suddenly grow a heart or conscience, and the ICE agents who were hired because they have anger issues and a morbid fascination with guns won’t suddenly begin using “best practices” for interacting with the public. Indeed, because they are undertrained and unqualified, they don’t even know what “best practices” are.
But . . . the administration’s realization that it has an “image problem” was likely a thumb on the scale in Trump’s decision not to invoke the Insurrection Act. That nascent recognition of the revulsion felt by most Americans is a small foothold for future restraint on the Trump administration.
Trump’s plan to invoke the Insurrection Act appeared to be performative. He had 200 Texas National Guard troops on standby. (See NYTimes article, above). Given that there are 3,000 ICE agents in Minneapolis, 200 National Guard troops would be irrelevant and ineffective. Their most effective use would have been as props for cable news and photojournalists wanting to create a misimpression about the scale of the US military’s deployment under the Insurrection Act.
Additional good news came in the form of an order by a federal judge restraining the tactics that ICE can use when interacting with protesters. See Politico, Judge limits ICE’s crowd control tactics following Minneapolis shooting.
Per Politico,
[US District Judge] Menendez’s order bars Homeland Security and ICE officials involved in Operation Metro Surge from “using pepper-spray or similar nonlethal munitions and crowd dispersal tools against persons who are engaging in peaceful and unobstructive protest activity.” The judge also prohibited federal agents from stopping vehicles following them, as long as those vehicles are maintaining a safe and “appropriate” distance.
Representatives from DHS and the White House both claimed that the ICE agents are already following the above rules, and are using chemical agents and nonlethal munitions only when they are attacked—blatant lies by the spokespersons, Tricia McLaughlin and Abigail Jackson, respectively. The good news is that the actions of the ICE agents can now be scrutinized by Judge Menendez with the benefit of video evidence provided by peaceful protesters.
The ruling will no doubt be appealed to the overwhelmingly Republican-appointed judges on the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals and then again to the Supreme Court.
On the negative side of the ledger, the corrupt and compromised DOJ has opened criminal investigations into Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey. See WaPo, Justice Dept. launches criminal investigation of Minnesota governor (Gift article accessible to all.)
Per WaPo,
The subpoenas suggest that the Justice Department is examining whether Walz’s and Frey’s public statements disparaging the surge of officers and federal actions have amounted to criminal interference in law enforcement work. The law under which they are investigating the two officials, a federal statute on conspiracy to impede a federal investigation, is similar to the charges filed against protesters whom federal officials allege have attempted to block immigration officers as they do their work.
The investigation is a joke, a blatant misuse of the Justice Department to punish Trump’s political opponents, and likely a felony by the members of the Justice Department who are acting with corrupt motives in issuing subpoenas. Doing so can violate multiple criminal statutes at the state and federal levels, including 18 USC §§ 241 and 242.
The threats against Walz and Frey are a sign of desperation and make the administration look weak and petty—the exact opposite of the intended effect. Just like the baseless claims against Senator Mark Kelly by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, these claims will be laughed out of court.
Trump threatens increased tariffs against countries that do not support his Quixotic quest for Greenland
Trump’s insistence that the US needs to acquire Greenland has managed to promote European unity against the US. For example, Germany, France, and Denmark are holding joint military exercises near Greenland to signal their willingness to honor Article V of the NATO treaty, which requires member nations to come to the aid of another member who is attacked.
Trump is frustrated by the resistance to his plans to conquer Greenland, so he is threatening to impose tariffs against nations that do not support his delusional goal. See CNBC, Trump floats new tariffs in push to acquire Greenland.
It is likely that the Supreme Court will soon issue an order declaring that Trump does not have the power to unilaterally issue tariffs, so Trump’s threat may soon vanish into thin air. Moreover, even if Trump has the power to issue tariffs, no court will uphold the exercise of that power to aid the military conquest of another nation. Tariffs are economic tools, not weapons of war.
Trump has so abused and misused tariffs that he has pushed China and Canada into a friendly economic embrace. On Friday, China and Canada announced an agreement for Canada to import 10,000 Chinese electric vehicles. See Wall Street Journal, China and Canada Edge Closer With Progress on Trade (Gift article, accessible to all.)
Per the WSJ,
China and Canada agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles and Canadian canola as a part of what their leaders called a “new strategic partnership,” with U.S. trade frictions looming in the background. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, after meeting Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday, said that Canada must be pragmatic when facing a rapidly rupturing global trading system. Beijing has been seeking to court countries grappling with U.S. protectionism and volatile trade policies.
Trump proclaimed on Friday that he was the “tariff king,” apparently believing that it was a good thing to be the “tariff king.” Democrats should make sure that the moniker sticks to all Republicans in the 2026 midterms. Tariffs have fueled inflation and are now driving our former trading partners into the welcoming arms of the Chinese economy. While Trump is calling himself the “tariff king,” he should add, “and I am an idiot.”
Gavin Newsom delays filling seat vacated by death of GOP legislator until last permissible day
Republicans have delayed holding elections to fill seats vacated by Democratic representatives by refusing to set a date for special elections. See Statement from Texas Democratic Party on Governor Greg Abbott refusing to hold special election in seat vacated by Democratic representative. And Speaker Mike Johnson refused to swear in Democratic Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva for more than a month after she was elected to the House.
Gavin Newsom is now exercising his discretion in scheduling the special election to replace GOP Representative Doug LaMalfa, who died unexpectedly two weeks ago. Newsom has scheduled the special election for the latest date permissible under law, i.e., August 4, 2026—eight months from now. Now that the shoe is on the other foot, Republicans are suddenly outraged by the delaying tactics used by their party leaders. See HuffPo, Newsom Ticks Off GOP With Special Election To Replace Late Republican.
Newsom has further complicated the task for Republicans seeking to fill the seat left vacant by LaMalfa’s death. Because of Proposition 50, the GOP candidate (if successful in the August election) will be required to run in a redrawn district only three months later, i.e., November 2026.
Per HuffPo,
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has scheduled a special election for someone to finish out late Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s term on the latest possible day allowed under state law, slimming the GOP’s narrow majority in the House for as long as he can.
The special election to replace LaMalfa, who died suddenly last week while representing a solidly Republican district, is set for nearly eight months from now on Aug. 4. Whoever replaces LaMalfa will get to finish out the last few months of the late congressman’s term, but to keep the seat, they’ll have to run again this November in a district redrawn by Prop 50 to favor Democrats.
Is the US military carrying out another unlawful attack in South America?
As of Friday evening, the FAA has warned civilian aircraft to exercise “caution” over oceans near Latin America. See F.A.A. Urges ‘Caution’ Over Oceans in Latin America, Warning of Military Activity - The New York Times
Concluding Thoughts
Trump won in 2024 in large part because he convinced the electorate that he would engage in aggressive deportation of violent criminals and gang members. Instead, he has trained the violent tactics of ICE on day care workers, construction workers, gardeners, and service workers—all of whom were peacefully contributing to the American economy and society until they were ripped from their communities by ICE.
The “bait and switch” betrayal by Trump is compounded by the violation of the fundamental sense of fairness that guides most Americans in their daily lives. We know unfairness when we see it, and no amount of lies by administration officials will convince us otherwise.
ICE’s tactics are both painful and self-defeating. We are winning this fight, even though it may feel otherwise. We are gaining ground in the hearts and minds of the American people, which is the most important battlefield of all.
Stay strong! Talk to you tomorrow!
[Robert B. Hubbell Newsletter]
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