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Jacques Sapir.

Gilets jaunes : « Un an, ce n’est qu’un début » JACQUES SAPIR | PRISCILLIA LUDOSKY | FRANÇOIS BOULO

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Emmanuel Macron, qui s’était distingué par ses (mé)connaissances en Géographie à propos de la Guyane, vient de faire des déclarations révélatrices au sujet du « travail ». Elles éclairent, tout comme certaines de ses autres déclarations, l’inconscient mais aussi l’imposture qui sont les siens.

#Emmanuel Macron #travail #pénibilité #capitalisme #Jacques Sapir #politique #France

@RnaudBertrand: We used to think that Russia's economy was the equivalent of a small European country. Maybe never before has an economy's importance been so grossly misjudged. French economist Jacques Sapir explain...…

We used to think that Russia's economy was the equivalent of a small European country.

Maybe never before has an economy's importance been so grossly misjudged.

French economist Jacques Sapir explains what happened (at 44:13):

…

To him "the war made us realize that the Russian economy is considerably more important than we thought"

He says that a big reason for this misjudgment is exchange rates.

If you compare Russia's GDP by converting from rubles to $, you indeed get an economy the size of Spain's.

However this is the worst possible way of comparing the size of economies.

A slightly more accurate way is to adjust for PPP (purchasing power parity: investopedia.com/updates/purcha…)

When you do so, you already realize that Russia's economy is actually more like the size of Germany's.

…

BUT you also need to take something else into account: "What is the share of the service sector versus the share of the commodities & industrial sector?"

To Sapir the service sector is today vastly overvalued in the world compared with the industrial sector and commodities.

He says that when you adjust for this Russia's economy is vastly bigger than Germany's.

His estimate is that Russia represents in fact maybe "5% or 6% of the world's economy", almost double the size it's normally estimated at on a PPP basis (statista.com/statistics/271…)

…

This crisis is making us realize that we used to take manufacturing, the industry and commodities for granted, i.e. an antiquated side of the economy compared to shiny new "services".

What we're going through is leading us to a huge rethink. This will undoubtedly make us conclude that what we used to view as antiquated is much more valuable than we thought.

Ironically this will force a revaluation of the Russian economy that's very much in their favor.

It's also very interesting to revalue China's economy through that lens.

If we look at the Chinese economy simply based on exchange rates, it is a $17.7 trillion economy to the U.S.'s $23 trillion.

However, if we just look at it on a PPP basis we realize it is already an almost $27 trillion economy. This means China's economy is already close to 20% larger than the U.S.'s:

…

Let's also revalue it by assuming that the service sector holds much less value than previously thought.

The service sector is about 54.5% of China's GDP (investopedia.com/articles/inves…) which is even less than in Russia (at 56.27%: statista.com/statistics/271…).

…

This means that if we roughly apply Sapir's ratio for Russia to China, we're in fact looking at the Chinese economy being probably about 30% of the world's economy on a PPP basis instead of the 18% it's currently estimated at (statista.com/statistics/270…)!

…

The service sector accounts for roughly 77% of the U.S. economy (statista.com/statistics/270…) and 70% of the EU's economy (ec.europa.eu/growth/single-…)

This means that conversely, the U.S. and EU's economies are probably overvalued today.

…

To conclude all this might end up making us realize that the Chinese + Russian economies combined are in fact far larger than those of the West.

Maybe as much as 40% larger if we assume US + EU is in fact maybe just 25% of the world's economy vs 35% for China + Russia 😮

#twitter thread #threadreader #arnaud bertrand #russia #jacques sapir #economics #china #service sector #purchasing power parity

L’inflation est-elle en train de devenir un problème mondial ? – RussEurope-en-Exil

2022-02-01 06:55:11 Les Crises Jacques Sapir DE-EHESS Membre étranger de l’Académie des Sciences de Russie (Ce texte correspond à la traduction en Français d’un article publié dans l’hebdomadaire russe Ekspert du lundi 23 janvier) L’inflation atteint aujourd’hui des niveaux inédits depuis ces dernières années, avec en particulier 7% aux États-Unis en décembre 2021 et 5,4% en Allemagne. La…

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» [RussEurope-en-exil] Aux sources de la planification japonaise, par Jacques Sapir

2021-09-22 07:00:13 Les Crises Aux sources de la planification japonaise (Ce texte a pour vocation de s’insérer dans un ouvrage à venir sur la planification dans les pays « capitalistes ») L’adoption de la planification dans le Japon de l’immédiat après-guerre fournit un deuxième exemple de l’adoption de cette institution dans une économie capitaliste. Car, et on l’ignore trop souvent en ce…

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la planification fille de la lutte pour la souveraineté, par Jacques Sapir

2021-09-03 06:45:21 Les Crises L’Inde : la planification fille de la lutte pour la souveraineté, Jacques Sapir (Ce texte fait partie d’un travail sur l’histoire de la planification dans les pays capitalistes au XXe siècle) Le cas de la planification en Inde est particulièrement intéressant à plusieurs titres car la pratique s’y étend sur plus de 60 ans à partir de l’indépendance du pays en…

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» [RussEurope-en-Exil] La Covid-19 et les conditions de travail – par Jacques Sapir

2021-06-11 06:50:37 Les Crises Alors que se lèvent la plupart des restrictions liées à la Covid-19, il convient de revenir sur ses conséquences. L’impact de la crise sanitaire sur l’économie a été évident et est bien mesuré. Mais, l’impact de la Covid-19 sur le télétravail et sur les conditions de travail l’a beaucoup moins été. Cela vient cependant de de faire l’objet d’une étude relativement…

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#Jacques sapir

We used to think that Russia's economy was the equivalent of a small European country.

Maybe never before has an economy's importance been so grossly misjudged.

French economist Jacques Sapir explains what happened (at 44:13):

…

To him "the war made us realize that the Russian economy is considerably more important than we thought"

He says that a big reason for this misjudgment is exchange rates.

If you compare Russia's GDP by converting from rubles to $, you indeed get an economy the size of Spain's.

However this is the worst possible way of comparing the size of economies.

A slightly more accurate way is to adjust for PPP (purchasing power parity: investopedia.com/updates/purcha…)

When you do so, you already realize that Russia's economy is actually more like the size of Germany's.

…

BUT you also need to take something else into account: "What is the share of the service sector versus the share of the commodities & industrial sector?"

To Sapir the service sector is today vastly overvalued in the world compared with the industrial sector and commodities.

He says that when you adjust for this Russia's economy is vastly bigger than Germany's.

His estimate is that Russia represents in fact maybe "5% or 6% of the world's economy", almost double the size it's normally estimated at on a PPP basis (statista.com/statistics/271…)

…

This crisis is making us realize that we used to take manufacturing, the industry and commodities for granted, i.e. an antiquated side of the economy compared to shiny new "services".

What we're going through is leading us to a huge rethink. This will undoubtedly make us conclude that what we used to view as antiquated is much more valuable than we thought.

Ironically this will force a revaluation of the Russian economy that's very much in their favor.

It's also very interesting to revalue China's economy through that lens.

If we look at the Chinese economy simply based on exchange rates, it is a $17.7 trillion economy to the U.S.'s $23 trillion.

However, if we just look at it on a PPP basis we realize it is already an almost $27 trillion economy. This means China's economy is already close to 20% larger than the U.S.'s:

…

Let's also revalue it by assuming that the service sector holds much less value than previously thought.

The service sector is about 54.5% of China's GDP (investopedia.com/articles/inves…) which is even less than in Russia (at 56.27%: statista.com/statistics/271…).

…

The service sector accounts for roughly 77% of the U.S. economy (statista.com/statistics/270…) and 70% of the EU's economy (ec.europa.eu/growth/single-…)

This means that conversely, the U.S. and EU's economies are probably overvalued today.

…

To conclude all this might end up making us realize that the Chinese + Russian economies combined are in fact far larger than those of the West.

Maybe as much as 40% larger if we assume US + EU is in fact maybe just 25% of the world's economy vs 35% for China + Russia 😮

#twitter thread #threadreader #arnaud bertrand #russia #jacques sapir #economics #china #service sector #purchasing power parity

#jacques sapir

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