THE GOP’S PRISONER’S DILEMMA
You might be familiar with the game theory idea of the prisoner’s dilemma. If not, we’ll explain it below. The current three-sided battle for the GOP nomination is a fascinating (albeit depressing) example of this logic problem playing out in real-life. Let’s hope that our prisoners in this case make better choices than one would expect.
The prisoner’s dilemma is a hypothetical situation that game-theory uses to explain how rational thinkers can still end up making decisions that hurt them. The theory works as follows. Two criminals are brought in by law enforcement. Immediately held apart in solitary confinement with no opportunity to communicate, each is offered a choice. If they rat out and betray their partner (while their partner stays silent), they will be let free, and their partner will receive 3 years in prison. However, if both prisoners betray each other, then they will each receive 2 years in prison. If neither betrays the other, then they each receive 1 year in prison. The situation is assumed to be in a vacuum: no potential repercussions outside of the changes in jail-time are considered.
The basic idea here is that a rational, self-interested person will always act to help themselves over cooperating. Both prisoners will always act to betray the other in the hope of getting out free.
How is this relevant to the GOP primary? Cruz and Kasich are taking the roll of the prisoners. They are faced with a choice: they can betray the other in the hopes of getting more votes and political power for themselves, or they can cede states to each other in order to maximize the chances of stopping Trump from obtaining the nomination. It’s not quite a perfect match to the original dilemma, but the idea is there. From what we’ve seen so far, the dilemma is playing out exactly as it always does. Kasich is still fighting in the race, despite the mathematical impossibility of winning. Cruz is still using resources to sap voters that could go to Kasich. Each is worse off. Meanwhile, Trump continues to steamroll his way to the convention. If Cruz and Kasich collaborated to work out which states and districts they each have a comparative advantage in, they would be able to present a stronger and more coherent front against Trump.
