EOSR #6: Lost Boys
6. Lost Boys
Iiiiiii'm back... and in addition to my vacation, this one took longer to write because community teams just are .... difficult.... to analyze.
Just compare the two sheets below, split along the time I believe the Lost Boys completely changed direction.
This is without the split, where Lost Boys look quite bad indeed....
and then:
is the lost boys ignoring the first couple games. COMPLETELY DIFFERENT PICTURE -.-
I will analyse this based on the second picture only. Not much to be said here in the analysis. The Lost Boys, ignoring the games where they had a completely different roster, become one of the few teams with a positive QP-QPA against Tier 1 teams, along with Miami, UCLA, and UT.
Anyone merely looking at these stats would not say that the Lost Boys should be ranked lower, so I will prove my case as to why I believe the Lost Boys shouldn't be ranked higher. Lost Boys, like Miami, had only one win out of snitch range against a Tier 1 team, (Miami techincally has 0 if you count early season Lost Boys as a Tier 2 team). IN FACT - EVERY SINGLE TIER 1 STAT from WISR to BLOWONOUT% is the EXACT SAME FOR MIAMI AND LOSTBOYS.
So what made Miami #5, and Lost Boys #6? Well Miami's performance was much more convincing. I am much more likely to weight a 80-50 win much higher than a 40-10 win, merely because in the beginning, teams that may be completely out of league with each other can still compete - BGSU was within snitch range of UT for a while, as was UCLA. Dropping the ridiculously high scoring game against BGSU - the Lost Boys' Tier 1QP drops to 65, and the Tier 1 QPA drops to 52.5 - meaning that many of the Lost Boys' games were finished early or marked by ridiculously strong defense by both sides (unlikely), or really sloppy offense by moth teams (still somewhat less likely). Since it was probably a timing issue, and since Miami shows more consistency among Tiers 2-4 (with the Lost Boys losing to the Skrewts once, and having a QP-QPA against Tier 3 teams that is barely above 30 points. )