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my grand prix final predictions: Men's Edition

I Would Be Surprised If They Are Not There:

🇰🇿 Mikhail Shaidorov - what's there left to be said about Misha? he's an incredible jumper, the literal OLYMPIC CHAMPION, and this season he has enough money to afford SHAE-LYNN BOURNE CHOREO?? yeah he def making to the final. y'all know i'm kazakhstan down. i'm so excited for him, working with Shae-Lynn is definitely the right step in helping him improve his artistry.

🇯🇵 Shun Sato - poor shun, he's the "accidentally became important at work" guy. that being said, shun's one of the most reliable, non-volatile men, and with yuma gone, j-fed should advocate for him like crazy and do everything in their power to make him win NHK trophy cause he's their greatest international podium threat and the reigning olympic bronze medalist.

🇫🇷 Adam Siao Him Fa - going from one of the least volatile men to one of the most volatile male skaters, Adam's actually pretty decent at grand prixes! Adam hasn't not medalled at his grand prix events starting from 2023 and could genuinely be a threat to Ilia IF he skates two clean programs. (big if i know). I heard that he's working with a sports psychologist and maybe the next olympics being a home olympics will motivate Adam to lock in.

Very Likely

🇺🇸 Ilia Malinin - ilia's heavily hinted that he might take a break and not do the grand prix series, so i wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't make to the final simply because he didn't compete in any grand prix events, although if he does compete, no one would be shocked at seeing him make the final.

🇨🇦 Stephen Gogolev - gogo's had the glow up of a lifetime since Canadian nationals. I remember trying to explain who everyone was to my friends for the olympics and saying "I don't really expect much from him" and now he's a seeded skater. crazy. since gogo's a top 3 seeded skater, i expect to see him at Skate Canada International and for the Canadian federation to advocate for him like crazy because he's their biggest international podium threat since PATRICK CHAN. Considering he skated his best at the olympics and worlds, gogo can definitely lock in to make it to grand prix final. the only reason i didn't include him in my locks is because two competitions is not much to go off of.

Decent Shots:

🇮🇹 Daniel Grassl, 🇫🇷 Kévin Aymoz, 🇬🇪 Nika Egadze, 🇨🇭 Lukas Britschgi - I grouped these guys together, not because they're similar skaters but because they occupy the same place in the rankings of being part of the bottom of the top ten pretty consistently. I think Grassl and Kévin are more likely than Nika and Lukas to made it to GPF as Kévin's a seeded skater and Grassl will be if Ilia takes a break; but also because Nika isn't very artistic and Lukas is a jack of all trades, master of none kind of skater.

That being said, Grassl and Kévin are wayy more volatile. I mean this season alone Kévin won Skate America after placing TENTH at Skate Canada (grand prixes only have 12 skaters competing...) then Kévin beat Adam at nationals before not making it to the European's free skate. He also has that infamous, now iconic 0A. Grassl isn't as up and down but he's had his moments (like placing 15th at the euros free...) and is very prone to under-rotation calls due his crazy technique.

These guys' chances depend on themselves (obviously), but also on how much competition there is at their individual grand prixes, how well the top competitors do, as well as under-rotation calls/downgrades for Grassl. Overall, I can see one or two of these guys sneaking into the alternates list or the being the 6th qualifier for the Grand Prix Final.

(imagine the picture below has daniel and kevin in it too lmao)

🇯🇵 Kao Miura - I think Kao deserves the title of most volatile skater. Yeah Adam had that insane 19th to 3rd World's but overall Adam usually still makes the top five of whatever event he joins (fun fact Adam's only placed below 5th two times this quad, 2023 Worlds (10th) and the Olympics (7th)). Kao, on the other hand, is genuinely 50/50 on whether he podiums or doesn't make the free skate. This season alone, he went from Four Continents Champion to bombing his Olympic short program and not qualifying for the Worlds free skate. If Kao skates well, he can definitely make it to GPF or on the alternates list but he isn't a reliable skater for me to be confident in him.

🇯🇵 Rio Nakata - my hydrogen bomb junior. juniors turned senior are always a little unpredictable but i think Rio has a decent shot of making the alternates list. Rio has a determination and fire in him that i don't think i've seen since Yuzuru Hanyu, and it's clear he takes skating very seriously and adores it (shoutout to him for mentioning Joshua Farris' give me love program). I think Rio's aiming to be japan's top male skater and make a statement on the international senior scene next season and I really hope that the pressure he's putting on himself doesn't get to him! However, I do think that his senior debut will be relatively successful and i see him medalling at 4CC or one of his grand prixes!

My Dark Horses For Making It:

🇰🇷 Seo Minkyu - you can't talk about rio without mentioning his other half, minkyu. i absolutely adore him! great skating skills and artistry despite being so young. he definitely has some more room for improvement in his performance ability (he's an artist but not a showman yet) but the greatest thing holding him back is that he only has a 4S. this means that he would have to be completely clean and rely on other men flopping to make it to Grand Prix Final and that's why i think he's gonna have a harder time than Rio at the senior level. i hope that Minkyu doesn't struggle as much during his senior debut as Jia did and that his career as an artistic skater turns out more like Yuma's than Cha Junhwan's.

🇰🇷 Cha Junhwan - speak of the devil, my poor robbed olympic bronze medalist. Junhwan's just been plagued with a very persistent ankle injury that's holding him back this quad. The past quad Junhwan's been pacing himself to peak at Four Continents and Worlds so he tends to not really be a podium threat on the Grand Prix series, but still always gets two assignment since he's always within the Worlds top ten; but since he withdrew at this year's worlds, who knows if he's getting two spots. Who knows if he's even doing the grand prix since he's gonna be busy with his ice show in august and apparently he's been cast in a sitcom?????

🇯🇵 Sota Yamamoto - Sota is so underrated! He has a tendency of majorly flopping at one event every season but other than he's pretty consistently just off of the podium. the past few seasons has been a little frustrating since he's been plagued with injuries and overshadowed by other japanese men but watching him win a bronze at four continents, combined with yuma's break and kao maybe being put in J-Fed jail, i have a glimmer of hope for him next season.

🇪🇪 Aleksandr Selevko - TBH I highly doubt Sasha's gonna make it to the Final, but i felt like i had to include him since he's a seeded skater. Sasha's very good in the short but mediocre in the free. Maybe he can pull a worlds moment again by having the short program of his life and keep his free program together just enough to make it to the final, or maybe his Worlds small medal gave him a major confidence boost, but overall i think his likelihood of making the final over these other guys is pretty small. That being said, one of my favorite moments of watching a skater is seeing them realize their on ice identity and i feel like Sasha did that with Kiss this season.

🇯🇵 Kazuki Tomono - Kazuki is a lot like Sasha in the sense that he's great at the short program but his free just kinda unravels. I can see two directions for Kazuki: either he starts to soft launch retirement, which isn't terribly unlikely considering he's 28 and a very popular show skater in japan, or he's energized to do a couple more seasons especially because yuma on break means that there will more opportunities for him to go to international events.