#maci webster

[spurgie-cousin]

Michael Keilen IG

*stamps my feet* I want to see more of the bridesmaids dresses!!!!

[fundiebabynamebible]

The Duggar/Bates 2021 Timeline

January 

5th - Josie and Kelton Balka announce they’re expecting their second child, due in June 2021. Paul and Christina Caldwell announce their ninth child is a girl.

16th - Kelly Bates reveals her Mom fought and survived Covid -19 but her stepfather lost his battle with the virus.

20th - Tori and Bobby Smith announce they’re expecting their third child. The baby is a girl, her name is Charlotte Raine and she is due in June 2021.

27th - Zach and Whitney Bates announce their fourth child is a boy

February

9th - John and Alyssa Webster welcome their fourth child, Maci Jo

18th - Jessa and Ben Seewald announce they’re expecting their fourth child. Josie and Kelton Balka announce their second child is a girl and she will be named Hazel Sloane.

19th - Joe and Kendra Duggar welcome their third child, Brooklyn Praise

26th - Justin Duggar marries Claire Spivey

March

Nothing

April

3rd - Jed Duggar marries Katey Nakatsu

8th - Katie Bates announces she’s engaged to Travis Clark

23rd - Josh and Anna Duggar announce they’re expecting their seventh child, a baby girl

29th - Josh Duggar is arrested by US Marshals on unknown charges

30th - Josh Duggar appears in court and it is revealed that he has been arrested on ‘child pornography’ charges

May

4th - Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo release their book, The Hope We Hold

5th - Josh Duggar is released from custody on bail, ahead of his July 6th trial

17th - Paul and Christina Caldwell welcome their 9th child, Moriah Faith. 

22nd - Nathan Bates announces he’s engaged to Esther Keyes.

June

7th - Zach and Whitney Bates welcome their fourth child, Jadon Carl. Jadon is transferred to NICU due to low oxygen levels following his birth, and left hospital 10 days later.

14th - Josie and Kelton Balka welcome their second child, Hazel Sloane. 

24th - Tori and Bobby Smith welcome their third child, Charlotte Raine.

29th - TLC announce that they have cancelled Counting On. The already filmed season 12 will never be aired. Josh Duggar’s trial is delayed until November 30th, 2021.

July

18th - Jessa and Ben Seewald welcome their fourth child, Fern Elliana

August

24th - Chad and Erin Paine announce they’re expecting their fifth child, due in January 2022.

30th - Carlin and Evan Stewart announce they’re expecting their 2nd child, due in April 2022. 

September

6th - Jed and Katey Duggar announce they’re expecting their first child, due April 2022. 

10th - Jana Duggar is charged with Endangering the Welfare of a Minor.

October

11th - Jill and Derick Dillard announce they have miscarried a baby named River Bliss.

21st - Chad and Erin Paine reveal they’re having a baby girl and her name is Finley Marie.

22nd - Nathan Bates marries Esther Keyes.

23rd - Josh and Anna Duggar welcome their seventh child, a girl named Madyson Lily.

27th - Jeremiah Duggar announces he’s courting Hannah Wissmann.

28th - Lawson Bates announces he’s engaged to Tiffany Espensen.

29th - Jim Bob Duggar announces he’s running for Arkansas State Senate.

November

21st - Carlin and Evan Stewart announce that their second child is a boy.

30th - The jurors for Josh Duggar’s trial are selected.

December

1st - Josh Duggar’s trial begins

3rd - Katie Bates marries Travis Clark

9th - Josh Duggar is found guilty of downloading and possessing ‘Child Pornography’ (Child Sexual Abuse Material). 

15th - Jim Bob loses the race to become Arkansas State Senate for District 7 in the primary election with only 456 votes.

[duggardata]

Welcome to The World, Maci Jo!

Get The Data Here.

At 6:00 AM on February 9th, 2021, Alyssa (Bates) + John Webster welcomed a healthy baby girl, Maci Jo Webster, into the world.  She is Alyssa + John’s 4th Child and 4th Daughter, joining sisters Allie Jane (b. 2015), Lexi Mae (b. 2017), and Zoey Joy (b. 2018).  The Websters revealed the birth via People, saying—

“We couldn't be happier or more thankful to add a fourth little girl to our family.  Maci Jo is perfect in every way, and we can't wait to see the girls’ reactions to meeting her for the first time.”

Read on for Maci’s impact on Alyssa + John’s and the Bates Data...

Pregnancy Announcement

The Websters announced Alyssa’s 4th Pregnancy in People on August 6, 2020.  Due February 17, 2021, Alyssa was 85 Days—i.e., 12 Weeks, 1 Day—Along, at the time.  (Note—Several of Alyssa’s IG Posts, e.g., #34Weeks and #38Weeks, actually didn’t match up with a February 17th Due Date.  However, Alyssa gave that Due Date initially—then, confirmed it yet again just days before giving birth.  Based on this...  It seems her Due Date was February 17, and wasn’t changed.  Alyssa simply isn’t a stickler for accuracy in Instagram hashtags!)

Alyssa + John’s Data.   Here is how far along Alyssa was when she announced each of her 4 Pregnancies—

#1 / Allie   137 Days Along   (Due April 10, 2015.)

#2 / Lexi   145 Days Along   (Due January 27, 2017.)

#3 / Zoey   136 Days Along   (Due April 2, 2018.)

#4 / Maci   85 Days Along   (Due February 17, 2021.)

As you can see, the Websters announced Pregnancy #4 quite a bit earlier than any of her prior pregnancies.  Before Pregnancy #4, it was ‘typical’ of Alyssa + John to announce 139 Days Along (or 19 Weeks, 6 Days).  This were more–or–less consistent too; it varied by a SD of only 5 Days.  With Maci, the Websters announced at a mere 85 Days Along—i.e., a whopping 54 Days and 10.8 SDs from their average.  Unsurprisingly, this shifted their data quite a bit...  Moving their ‘typical’ Pregnancy Reveal from 139 to 126 Days Along (–13 Days).

Bates Family Data.   Looking at the Bates Family Data, Maci’s data shifted the  ‘typical’ Pregnancy Announcement from 106 to 105 Days Along (–1 Day) (i.e., Exactly 15 Weeks).  Since then, the Bateses’ve had an additional 3 Pregnancy Reveals—Whitney w/ Jayden, Josie w/ Balka 2*, and Tori w/ Charlotte—which further shifted the ‘typical’ Pregnancy Reveal to 103 Days (–2 Days), 103 Days (No Significant Change), and 104 Days (+1 Day).     

Sex / Name Reveal

Alyssa + John did a Sex Reveal for Maci on September 12, 2020, on YouTube Live.  They did her Name Reveal shortly after, on September 18, 2020, also on YouTube.  Alyssa was 122 Days Along for the Sex Reveal and 128 Days Along for the Name Reveal.

Alyssa + John’s Data.  Here’s when and how Alyssa + John did Sex and Name Reveal for each of their 4 Pregnancies—

#1 / Allie   Did a joint Sex + Name Reveal, separate from the Pregnancy Reveal, at 196 Days Along (Exactly 28 Weeks).

#2 / Lexi   Simultaneous Pregnancy Announcement + Sex Reveal, when Alyssa was 145 Days Along (20 Weeks, 5 Days).  Separate Name Reveal at 229 Days Along.

#3 / Zoey   Simultaneous Pregnancy, Sex, and Name Announcement at 136 Days Along (19 Weeks, 3 Days).

#4 / Maci   Separate Pregnancy Announcement, Sex Reveal, and Name Reveal...  Sex Reveal on Day 122 (i.e., 17 Weeks, 3 Days).  Name Reveal on Day 128 (i.e., 18 Weeks, 2 Days).

Pre–Maci, the Websters typically did the Sex Reveal on Day 159, then a Name Reveal on Day 187.  Factoring in Maci, a Webster–‘typical’ Sex Reveal shifted from 159 to 150 Days Along (–9 Days), and a Webster–‘typical’ Name Reveal shifted from 187 to 172 Days Along (–15 Days).   

Bates Family Data.   Factoring in Maci to the Overall Bates Data, your ‘typical’ Sex Reveal shifted from 140 to 138 Days Along (–2 Days).  Since then, it has shifted again due to Sex Reveals for Jayden and Charlotte, and ‘typical’ went from 138 Days, to 137 Days (–1 Day), to 137 Days (No Significant Change).

Among Bateses, a joint Sex + Name Reveal remains the norm.  

Delivery vs. Due Date

Alyssa’s Due Date was February 17, 2021.  Maci arrived on February 9, making her 8 Days Early.   

Alyssa + John’s Data.  This is Alyssa’s earliest delivery, to date.  How’s how far along she was at delivery for each of her 4 Pregnancies—

#1 / Allie   1 Day Late

#2 / Lexi   1 Day Early

#3 / Zoey   5 Days Early   (Citation for Pregnancies 1–3.)

#4 / Maci   8 Days Early   

Bates Family Data.   This is tricky, since so many of the Bateses deliver early...  Let’s just exclude all births that occur before 37 Weeks (“early term”).  Prior to Maci’s arrival, excluding deliveries before 37 Weeks, your ‘typical’ GrandBates was 7 Days Early (6.7).  Factoring in Maci, it’s still 7 Days Early (6.8)...  There’s No Significant Change.      

Labor / Delivery Details

Prior to the birth, Alyssa stated that she planned to deliver at a hospital.  (With Pregnancies 1–3, used a birth center, so that was a change for her.)  Based on the photos, it appears that she did, indeed, deliver at a hospital.  Alyssa stated that John “help[ed] deliver and cut the cord.”  Also, they told People—

"We praise God for a healthy labor and delivery, and are very grateful Mommy and Baby are both doing well!”

That, plus Maci’s Birthweight / Length—6 Pounds, 3 Ounces and 18 Inches—are basically all we know about the delivery.  Sounds like there weren’t major complications, and probably no C–Section.

Alyssa + John’s Procreative Pace / ESOQ

In 2019, Alyssa dealt with debilitating cardiac arrhythmias, which required two ablation surgeries to correct.  During this time, Alyssa experienced symptoms on a daily basis, and struggled to function.  Given these serious health issues, Duggar Data will count Maci’s Child Spacing from the day of Alyssa’s second, successful ablation (August 29, 2019), rather than Zoey Joy’s DOB (March 28, 2018).  So, while the Zoey–to–Maci gap is really 1,049 Days, Maci receives an Adjusted Child Spacing of 530 Days.

So...  Here are the Child Spacings associated with Alyssa’s 4 Pregnancies—

#1 / Allie   322 Days  (Wedding to Allie)

#2 / Lexi  656 Days  (Allie to Lexi)

#3 / Zoey   426 Days  (Lexi to Zoey)

#4 / Maci   530 Days  (Surgery #2 to Maci)

When calculating Procreative Pace, Firstborn Allie doesn’t count.  So, up until Maci, Alyssa + John’s Procreative Pace was (656 + 426 Days) / 2 = 541 Days.  Now, factoring in Maci, that shifts to 537 Days (4 Days Faster).  It is a modest acceleration, but an acceleration nonetheless!

Their ESOQ is now 17 Children.   

When To Expect Webster #5

Given the data, here’s what’s now forecast for Webster #5—

Pregnancy News   March 2, 2022

Due Date   August 3, 2022

Projected DOB   July 31, 2022

[keepingupwithfundies]

Baby Webster #4 Poll Results Part 3

Part 1 and Part 2 

Maci Jo Webster arrived this morning, so that means it’s time to see how we did guessing birthday and birth stats! 

Birthday

The only guess for February 9 came from Iris, who inadvertently entered it into the poll as February 9, 2020 (No worries Iris- I do this all the time at the start of the year! Still counts!) 

Birth Stats

Weight: Maci was born at 6lbs, 3oz. We had two correct guesses: @haroldtheyrefundies and @goldwasthecolor! 

Length: Maci was 18inches long at birth. We had 11 correct guessers:  @fundiebible,@allstarthrills, @goldwasthecolor, bee chase,  @20somethingeverything and @jingersnosescrunch​ and 5 anons!

Great work everyone! And Maci, welcome to the world!

-T 

[wtffundiefamilies]

Happy anniversary, Alyssa and John!  Congrats on seven years and four adorable daughters

Be not overcome of evil, but overcome evil with good. - Romans 12:21

[spurgie-cousin]

All of the siblings are at the Bates big house so I'm guessing a Hazel announcement is imminent

Tori seems to still be pregs and I can't remember the last time I've seen a new pic of Michael

[spurgie-cousin]

Alyssa responded to the 'blanket training' thing; she denies using the method then or ever and says she just had Maci on the blanket in the grass.

I hadn't seen the original video but that doesn't sound far-fetched to me. Plus we all know how fast the internet jumps to conclusions.

[duggardata]

Breaking: Maci Jo is Here!

Alyssa (Bates) + John Webster welcomed their 4th Daughter—Maci Jo—on February 9, 2021 at 6 AM. People had the exclusive.

Data analysis to follow.