The prediction of adoption is one that has baffled marketers, it seems, for decades. While some CPG products are a bit easier to understand and forecast for than others, as we move into the world where things/products are more technology based, how does one predict adoption? Why did myspace come and die and how did Facebook make it 10+ years to the largest IPO in the history of IPOs? What makes snapchat the next best thing to Instagram? The peculiar thing is that myspace had more brand recognition at the time Facebook launched, but somehow Facebook, with its exclusive member base (Harvard, Yale and Princeton to start) could now boast over 1bn users? So many questions and such little understanding. Is Bass's model applicable to such scalable technologies today?