LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN
June 17, 2026
Heather Cox Richardson
Jun 18, 2026
A senior U.S. official read the text of the fourteen-point memorandum of understanding with Iran over the phone to reporters today, and there’s a reason it has ignited a firestorm.
A memorandum of understanding is usually a nonbinding agreement outlining shared goals and intentions, but in this case, although there is much vague or confusing language in the text, what the White House says is an MOU actually has firm language in it.
First of all, after months of the White House insisting Trump does not need congressional approval for his strikes against Iran because they did not constitute a war, the MOU straight up calls the conflict “the current war.”
The MOU commits the U.S. and Iran “and their allies” to stop military operations “on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” a reference to Israel’s bombing of what it says are Hezbollah camps there. Israel has suggested it will not consider itself bound by any such agreement, but as Anton Troianvoski points out in the New York Times, the language will enable Iran to pressure the U.S. over Israeli attacks in Lebanon or Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon in what Israel calls a “security zone.”
The MOU says the U.S. will “terminate all types of sanctions” against Iran, and it lifts the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, giving Iran the access to world trade the U.S. previously prevented in order to pressure the regime. It also permits Iran to begin selling oil immediately on the world market.
The MOU says Iran will use “its best efforts”—not a guarantee—“for the safe passage of commercial vessels” through the Strait of Hormuz “with no charge for 60 days only.” It continues: Iran and Oman will decide how to “define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz,” an indication that Iran intends to charge fees for transit of the strait.
The MOU says the U.S. will thaw frozen Iranian assets immediately and also “develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development” of Iran to repair the damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes. It says the U.S. will grant “[a]ll required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions,” apparently readmitting Iran to full participation in world financial markets.
In exchange for these concessions, Iran “reaffirms” in the MOU that it will not try to develop or procure a nuclear weapon. That word “reaffirms” is important: it signals that Iran is simply reiterating what it said in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that Trump tore up in 2018.
But, unlike the JCPOA, the MOU contains no language about a process to guarantee Iran’s promise not to pursue a nuclear weapon. When a reporter asked Trump about that absence, he said that what would guarantee Iran’s compliance is fear of renewed U.S. bombing. But Iran has shown it can withstand such attacks, and in any case, the U.S. has no stomach for them.
It looks as if Trump’s war on Iran has cost the U.S. the lives of thirteen service members, injuries to 400 more, and at least $132 billion so far in immediate costs, lost income, and higher consumer costs, only to leave the U.S. in a significantly worse place with regard to Iran than before Trump started bombing.
The costs to the world have been significantly higher in terms both of lives—beginning with more than 175 Iranian schoolchildren and their teachers—and of economies.
Journalist David Shuster reported that the Iranian government is declaring “total victory.”
Former secretary of state Antony Blinken posted: “By President Trump’s own terms, the war is a failure. The Iranian regime is intact and its military wing more empowered, while the Iranian people are more impoverished, repressed and desperate…. The only ‘achievement’ of the ceasefire is the likely re-opening [of] the Strait of Hormuz—which was open before the war started. And we will apparently pay Iran to do so…. Don’t expect a return to normal any time soon, if at all,” he warned.
In a press opportunity today in France, where he was attending the Group of Seven (G7) conference, an informal forum of industrialized democracies, Trump twice told reporters that he didn’t want to be like President Herbert Hoover. Although he got the history of Hoover’s role in the Great Depression wrong, Trump’s point seemed clear: he didn’t want to be the person to trigger an “economic catastrophe.”
And therein lay the rub for Trump in his war on Iran: so long as Iranian leaders could credibly threaten the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, they could throttle about a fifth of the world’s oil supply and much of its fertilizer, plunging the globe into crisis. The terms of the MOU heavily favor Iran, but the strait gives its leaders leverage over Trump and the U.S. This was precisely the scenario that past U.S. presidents sought to avoid by negotiating with Iran rather than bombing it.
Selling the MOU in the U.S. is going to be rough. When a reporter asked Trump today why he didn’t “stick around for the signing ceremony with this Iran peace deal,” the famously camera-courting president answered: “I might, but I’d rather, this is a memorandum of understanding. It’s very important, but it might not be the kind of a document that I should be signing.” The reporter responded: “There is some element to this where you send the vice president. If it works out, great. You look like a genius for sending him. If it doesn’t work out, it’s the vice president’s fault.”
Trump responded: “I like that idea…. This way, if it works out, I’m gonna take the credit; if it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming J.D. You better be careful, J.D. He’s gonna turn his plane around and get the hell outta here. Yeah, I like that idea. I think that’s a good idea.”
MAGA lawmakers like Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) seemed willing to go along with the measure, saying: “I trust President Trump. I trust Vice President Vance. We don’t need to listen to anybody up here on Capitol Hill. Let’s trust these two.” But John Knefel of Media Matters reported that MAGA figures who have been all-in on the war on Iran are revolting against the MOU. “Trump’s Iran deal gives the Islamic Republic big wins upfront—and America nothing,” wrote the New York Post.
Journalist David Shuster reported that Republican senators are furious with Trump. Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA), who lost his primary to a Trump-backed challenger a month ago, posted: “Reagan is rolling over in his grave. Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal.
“Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive. Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped. This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.”
By tonight, Trump loyalist Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) was defending the idea of Iran having missiles, despite the fact that ending Iran’s missile program was one of Trump’s stated reasons for starting the war in the first place. Marshall told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins that he preferred that they not have missiles, but that “the key issue” is that “they have to be able to defend themselves.”
National security scholar Joseph Stieb posted: “It’s like the last 40 years of the Republican Party’s foreign policy didn’t happen.”
After setting Vance up to take the fall for the deal, tonight at a dinner with French president Emmanuel Macron at the Palace of Versailles, Trump signed the MOU himself. It was a moment when a knowledge of history would have been useful. As MeidasTouch noted, it was at Versailles after World War I that the Allied powers forced Germany to sign the Treaty of Versailles, “one of the most famous surrender documents in modern history.”
Earlier in the day, asked by a MeidasTouch reporter about Trump’s cognitive decline at the G7, Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) said: “The president has been humiliated on the world stage, and many Americans are increasingly concerned about his stability and his capacity in the office. It’s deeply distressing to Americans across the political spectrum to see a president so incompetent and so incapable attempting and failing to represent the nation internationally.”
Over a GIF of James Bond saying, “He’s quite mad, you know,” national security scholar Tom Nichols called today “the weirdest and most astonishing day in US foreign policy in decades.”
LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN
HEATHER COX RICHARDSON
