#metakb

[nagekinofigure]

This blog is dead, huh? lol

Well if you remember me, I did some short updates for my AKB48 1st gen ‘Where are the now?’ series, over on twitter:

https://twitter.com/nagekinohina/status/1233887439040765952

[nagekinofigure]

Can you believe it’s been 5 years since our eternal ace and light of my life graduated??

5 years!!

it makes me feel so old i want to die

I’m not the type to get toooo emotional about graduations (rather, I’m the type that gets emotional later as I look back with nostalgia), but I have very strong memories of, a few weeks before Acchan grad, ‘Boku no Taiyou’ coming up on shuffle and suddenly having this terrible crying fit. “She’s my sun! What will AKB & I do without her?!” etc Very ooc for me lol.

My era of AKB was 2009-2012. When I think of AKB, I think of the members & songs of that time. And of course, Acchan, who was the face. To me, she represents AKB at its strongest, constantly coursing upwards. Not that I think AKB wouldn’t have plateaued if Acchan hadn’t left! It’s just coincidental timing.

I loved the bright and shining AKB, and Acchan who shines brilliantly too.

[nagekinofigure]

Livehouse Rankings

I want to talk about livehouses a little bit. The type of places a group/artist is playing can tell you a lot about them! How many fans they have, how they perceive themselves, how others perceive them, etc. Idols might perform only in certain venues, and rock bands in others, or such.

Say you are a band. You think that if you play a gig, about 500~ fans will come. So, what venue size do you aim at? A venue that fits 300 people. You could easily sell it out, and say things like, ‘Our band quickly sold out the concert!’ But people will also know you are playing a small venue which will affect their expectations of the band; ‘they can only play at such small venues, they’re not successful.’

Or, a venue of 750 people? Probably, it won’t sell out, and on ticket sales, you make a loss. However, you might be able to make it up with merch sales. And playing in a bigger venue will attract attention, if it makes you seem like you’re on the way up. ‘This band is getting successful lately, I should check them out.’

Or alternatively, you could join up with other artists and hold a two/three-man concert. Three bands your size could sell out a 1500 capacity concert hall! And you’d have the possibility of attracting other bands fans. However, multi-artist concerts will mean much more organisation behind the scenes, and might even turn fans away if they have no interest in other bands.

These are things you should think about when supporting artists. All artists try and media-play to make themselves look better. An artist saying ‘They’ve been selling out one-mans for five years!’ means nothing if they’re playing at Urawa Narciss. Or alternatively, artists who could sell out larger venues but choose to play smaller ones for the atmosphere. Like VAMPS choosing to play 10 days at ZEPP instead of a couple of night at Budokan. Or AKB playing daily at their theater.

Here is a rough ‘ranking’ list of livehouses. I only really know about Tokyo live houses, and a few Nagoya/Osaka... Since most of my knowledge is from visual-kei fandom, this is somewhat band-biased, as opposed to idols, but similar rules apply.

First tier would be... non-official venues. This is places like bars etc which have live music areas but aren’t full-time venues. So absolute beginners and hobbyists might start here.

Shibuya O-crest (200), Shibuya O-nest (250), Ikebukuro CYBER (300), Takadanobaba Area (450): CYBER and Area in this tier despite their size because of their reputations. CYBER is just awful, Area will let anyone hold a oneman even if they’re clearly not going to sell out. O-crest & O-nest are small but part of the Shibuya O-group which has imo a fairly nice reputation. This tier is ‘I am starting out but fairly serious’.

Ikebukuro EDGE (250), Ruido K venues, Shibuya REX (300), Harajuku Astro Hall (400): Bands who are starting to gain a dedicated following. The venues are slightly less shit, and have a bit of history behind them.

Shibuya O-West (600), Shinjuku LOFT (550), Shinjuku BLAZE (800), Shibuya QUATTRO (800): Bands capable of pulling in larger audiences. At this point bands can start thinking of doing music full time. These venues are big enough to allow a half-decent concert DVD to be filmed.

LIQUIDROOM Ebisu (1000), Shibuya O-East (1300), Kawasaki Club CITTA’ (1300), Akasaka BLITZ (1300): The over 1000 capacity venues! They’re all pretty nice! At this point you’ve probably made a name for yourself within your music genre. Shibuya-AX was also at this tier before it closed RIP ;-;.

Shibuya Public Hall (2300), Shinkiba Studio Coast (2400), ZEPP TOKYO (2700), Hibiya Open-Air Concert Hall (2600), NHK Hall (3600), Tokyo International Forum (5000): If you are doing oneman’s here you’ve made it! A standard group is doing well for itself at this level. Artists at this level are probably charting on Oricon.

Budokan (14000): Budokan gets its own tier because... It feels like it’s the ‘realistic aim’ for a lot of bands. To play SSA or TD you really need to be very popular with national recognition. Most musicians won’t get there. But Budoukan is big, but still within reach a for a full-time artist. A lot of bands will do, say, a nation-wide tour at 1-5k venues with a final at Budokan. I don’t like Budoukan because to get the full 14000 capacity you need to set the stage in the middle of the arena with audience 360° around the stage, which always look awkward.

Saitama Super Arena (37000) & other arenas, Toyota Stadium (45000) & other stadiums, Tokyo Dome (57000) & other domes: Success is undeniable. Tokyo Dome is the absolute top in terms of prestige. Almost certainly the result of a long and successful career.

International Stadium Yokohama aka Nissan Stadium (70000): Another special case. Even if you can afford to hire it, even if you think you can sell out... The stadium is very restrictive of who they allow to play there, you practically have to be invited.

There are of course lots of other venues! But these are names I see coming up a lot, especially amongst the types of groups that are popular internationally? I feel they are the biggest names of their level (ie there may be plenty of 1000+ venues but O-east, LIQUIDROOM and BLITZ are names I see a lot, etc)

This is an idol/AKB blog, so lets talk about them a little bit... SKE, NMB and Nogi have done ZEPP tours before. ZEPP venues are a subsidiary of Sony so it’s no surprise to see Sakamichi series there. They’re the only livehouse ‘brand’ I know of that stretches across Japan; as opposed to Shibuya-O or Ruido-K which are fairly close to each other.

Shibuya-AX was a fairly large large venue that AKB started holding Request Hour in 2008, but they weren’t selling out until they got big in 2010. Really wonder what made them choose to hold 4 concerts over 2 days at a 1500 seat venue, at a time when their first week sales were 15k~ and they were on the verge of disbandment. It’s a similar size to the other venues they held concerts in at the time, I wonder if they were selling those out. If they couldn’t fill AX in January ‘08, did they fill NHK Hall at the end of the year? But it’s true partenering with King Records turned their luck around so who knows. After AX shut RH was moved to Tokyo Dome City Hall which is twice the size of AX so RH is obviously doing just fine.

Because of the upcoming 2020 Tokyo Olympics, many many venues are getting refurbished, to the point artists are complaining about being unable to find places to perform. AKB is included in this! I wonder if that’s the reason why almost every event AKB has held the past the past two years has been at Tokyo Dome City Hall, or if a 3100 capacity hall is the best that current AKB can do.

[nagekinofigure]

Afew RH17 stats (copied from my post on s48)

Regarding the groups in general AKB48 54 SKE48 15 NMB48 8 HKT48 20 NGT48 3 Then split into types of songs

AKB48 Album 5 AKB48 A-Side 10 AKB48 B-Side 29 AKB48 Team A 6 AKB48 Team K 1 AKB48 Team B 4 AKB48 Team 4 2 AKB48 Team 8 2 SKE48 A-Side 2 SKE48 B-Side 9 SKE48 Team S 1 SKE48 Team KII 2 NMB48 Album 1 NMB48 B-Side 5 NMB48 Team N 2 HKT48 A-Side 4 HKT48 B-Side 11 HKT48 Team H 1 HKT48 Team KVI 1 HKT48 Team T 1 NGT48 Team NII 1 Team Surprise 1 Some variations eg I counted Max Toki as an NGT song in the group ranking but an AKB B-Side in the song splits, same for Escape/Otona Rassha; Hashire Penguin is a B-side but I counted it as Team 4; 365/Kanojo etc I counted as AKB even though they're really wins for NMB/HKT; and so on. This is just to give a rough idea of the types of songs voted for, please don't use for offical stats or anything. On the whole B-sides dominated for all groups. This is obviously because if you look at the current members in 48G, most of them don't have songs to call their own other than B-sides. Stage songs have taken a HUGE downturn compared to 3-4 years ago. Makes sense since the majority of stage songs were performed by graduated members, but it's quite a change, considering how a few years ago, we weighed the success of teams by how many of their stage songs ranked. Interestingly almost all the A-sides/album songs ranking were recent, but for the B-sides they were spread out along the history of AKB. It felt like AKB did better than usual but maybe I'm misremembering past years. HKT didn't really rank many more songs than SKE, but they were almost all high-ranking, whereas SKE were spread over, especially the first two concerts. NMB did poorly once again, with no A-sides ranking. (wtf)

[nagekinofigure]

As a follow up to the livehouse post, some videos if you want to compare different venues:

Onykixx @ Ikebukuro CYBER (300)  This is the sort of tragedy you see at CYBER smdh

THE Hitch Lowke @ O-crest (200) 360 so you look around the venue! Perfume @ O-crest (200) This video is low quality and old as balls but omg baby Perfume.

Nightmare @ Takadanobaba Area (450)  Full house for the very popular Nightmare! SaTaN @ Takadanobaba Area (450)  Half empty for these nobodies SaTaN. This is why Area has a bad rep.

Mei @ Shibuya QUATTRO (800)  Rev.from DVL @ Shibuya QUATTRO (800) A sudden increase in camera quality. A decent live DVD.

Aldious @ O-East (1300) BiSH @ O-East (1300) Another increase in camera quality. A good live DVD.

VAMPS @ ZEPP Tokyo (2700)  Hatsune Miku @ ZEPP Tokyo (2700) 

Antic Cafe @ Hibiya Open Air (2600) Denpagumi.inc @ Hibiya Open Air (2600)

A9 @ Budokan (14k) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5EVnHwHScM BABYMETAL @ Budokan (14k)  360° stage... It's fine, just have your back to half the audience, not awkward at all.

SNSD @ Yokohama Arena (17k)  JAM Project @ Yokohama Arena (17k) 

GLAY @ SSA (37k) KARA @ SSA (37k)

SID @ Tokyo Dome (57k) AKB48 @ Tokyo Dome (57k)

[nagekinofigure]

When I wrote that CinDy post yesterday I was searching through old matome, and I found this interesting yahoo article from the start of last year, on “Which AKB48 graduates are you supporting? Graduate Sousenkyo!” Yahoo surveyed approx 500 people, and the results were:

1st Oshima Yuko  27.2% 2nd Shinoda Mariko  15% 3rd Maeda Atsuko  12.8% 4th Akimoto Sayaka  9% 5th Itano Tomomi  8.2% 6th Oshima Mai  7.6% 7th Noro Kayo  4.2% 8th Ohori Megumi  2.2% 8th Mitsumune Kaoru 2.2% 10th Usami Yuki  1.8% 10th Kasai Tomomi 1.8% 12th Masuda Yuka  1.6% 12th Kikuchi Ayaka  1.6% 14th Urano Kazumi  1.4% 15th Kawasaki Nozomi  1.2% 15th Hirajima Natsumi  1.2% 17th Sato Amina  1% 18th Ohe Tomomi  0.8% 18th Nakaya Sayaka  0.8% 20th Komatani Hitomi  0.6%

The article itself commented on the power of the top 3, the difference in Sayaka’s popularity in and out of AKB, and Nonti’s success at variety. I’m also reminded on Bananaman’s comments at 2015 Kouhaku, when Acchan & Yuko came out for Takamina’s last Kouhaku performance; and they wondered if they would see Maimai, Nonti or Meetan. I think the graduate members with casual name recognition is a bit different from international fans expectations.

There’s not really enough info on the demographics polled, so I don’t want to ~theorise~ on the placements (is was this a poll that could be spammed by hardcore fans of certain members, etc) but I was really surprised by Yukki’s ranking. Cause I wouldn’t have thought even hardcore AKB fans trolling would have voted her up there.

[nagekinofigure]

A new senbatsu and a new uproar over the girls picked: the more things change, the more they stay the same. ;)

Well one of the biggest offences management has made this time seems to be leaving out Tomu, in particular the choice of Yuria over Tomu. I'm surprised that so many people are up in arms over Yuria; her placement may not reflect her popularity, but management have been fairly firmly behind her for a long time. I’d expect more outrage that, say, Hana was picked over Tomu.

If we look at senbatsu in general, I would consider the following members absolute locks:

Kojiharu, Paru, Yuihan, Yukirin, Mayuyu, Jurina, Sayanee, Sasshi, Sakura (9 members)

Which leaves 7 spaces in a standard 16-nin senbatsu.

Then you have the next tier, senbatsu regulars who, if these members stay in senbatsu, I wouldn’t be surprised, and if they were dropped, I also wouldn’t be surprised.

Renacchii, Annin, Yuria, Miichan, Kitarie

These can be divided into M&K (popular in the past, but in general falling) and AnYuRe (didn’t quite get that popularity) That’s not to say they couldn’t get there with continued support; Renachii has had a very slow but steady rise over the past few years, and it’s possible she will continue to rise, but it’s also possible it won’t. If Yuria’s supposed position in the upcoming senbatsu is true, I can see management pulling an Ishida Anna on her future. It’s true she’s been heavily pushed for a long time, but hey, look at Akicha, who was arguably pushed heavier, and was dropped over nothing.

Miichan and Kitarie are out this single, but, as I said, I can see them rotating back in. Or not. It’s that kind of tier.

Then there’s the true up-and-coming ranks, a variety of girls from different groups with varying levels of support from different areas, management support, fan support, group representation, good handshakes or attitudes. These members have been rotating in and out of the upper undergirl/empty senbatsu positions.

Mion**, Naanya, Kojimako, Nacchan, Juri, Komiharu, Haruppi, Tomu, Sayaya, Ryochan, Miru, Riripon, Uha, Rara, Katomina, Ogiyuka, Rikachan, Okappa

Now, speaking as a Tomu oshi for a minute... Looking at the competition in this tier, I never really expected her to make a 16 nin senabtsu. I hoped, and after this years ssk, slightly expected, management might add her, as recognition of her rank, perhaps for one single. But Tomu has never been a favourite; she’s on the older side, she’s not great at variety, her performances have really only improved over the past 2-3 years, she’s at uni (48G, notoriously bad at pushing girls in furthur education), and the other girls are not lacking. But I am honestly kind of hurt that the senbatsu was extended to 22-nin, with only 7-10 “guaranteed” members, and still the #4 ranking AKB girl didn’t get in. Like I am really quite pissed. :/

There are certain choices I’m surprised about in general, such as adding 4 HKT member and only 1 each of SKE & NMB; I would have expected a themed trio like Nao/Miru/Haruppi (frontgirls of their group) or Rara/Riripon/Hana (next gen aces), rather than HKT  getting both and SKENMB neither. I also wouldn’t have guessed Yuiyui or Rika, but T8 & NGT getting senbatsu recognition was certainly coming and it’s not surprising in retrospect.

I don’t like to be “why did member x get in over member y??”. I don’t like Paruru, but I understand why she’s in; she’s cute, she’s popular, she stands out, she has brand recognition. I don’t like Yuria, but I understand why she’s in; she’s a good performer, she’s been a frontgirl for 6 years. I can understand Yuiyui and Rika representing T8 and NGT. I can understand taking advantage of Komiharu’s sudden surge of popularity, or Naachan’s fantastic rise due to great performance & handshakes, or continuing Hana’s airdrop push. I absolutely get why each of these girls was selected for senbatsu. There’s not a member who doesn’t deserve it, and I couldn’t look at a girl and be like “You. You are the member that should have been booted out to make room for my Tomu.”.

There was a time I was like this; when I was younger and more passionate about the fandom, and would rant and rave about the INJUSTICE that was Sayaka's treatment in AKB. As time has passed, I’ve realised Sayaka was treated pretty damn well in AKB; not top-tier, but there are theater girls who can only dream of the opportunities Sayaka got. So I try and look evenly at the members.

BUT DESPITE THIS. Despite liking the senbatsu members (mainly), despite there being plenty of other deserving girls who were not picked... I still wanted to see Tomu in this senbatsu and I’m salty as hell and I might download this single but I won’t be buying it.

[nagekinofigure]

Who are the current generation aces?

2ch discusses generation aces. (current ie Kana as 2nd gen ace as she’s the only 2nd gen left in her group)

28: 1st  Takamina 2nd  Kana > Noone 3rd  Mayu > Yukirin 4th  Shiichan 5th  Myao > Harukyan 6th  Akicha 7th  Wasamin > Noone 9th  Paru 10th Renachii 11th Nattsun 12th Tomu 13th Mogi 14th Naachan > Kojimako 15th Mion Draft 1st Sayaya > Noone Transfers Yuria

54: Isn't the current choice for 13th Yuiri and Ryoka?

58: Ryoka is doted on by seniors and juniors. Yuiri is loved by the 13th-15th gen, along with the now graduated Takashima. Even is Ryoka is pushed by management, the one supporting the juniors is Yuiri.

7: The era of Mogi is approaching. Appearing in short movies and as a net model.

9: Muto is the most popular of the 12th gen. You want to say Tano, but she can't appeal during sousenkyo.

15: KK is on her second term as ace, as she was the original K ace.

34: 12th gen has double ace Tomu/Juri. Then in order: Tano Yukarun/Miyupon Karen/Hillary

44: SKE 1st Jurina 2nd Churi 3rd Kaotan 4th Aya 5th Nao 6th Ryoha Draft 1st Sally

NMB 1st Sayanee 2nd Fuuchan 3rd Shuu 4th Nagisa Draft 1st Riripon

HKT 1st Sakuratan 2nd Mio 3rd Nako Draft 1st Mao

45: In the past 1st  Acchan 2nd  Yuko 3rd  Mayu 4th  Mocchi 5th  Kitarie 6th  Akicha

46: SKE 1st  Rena 2nd  Churi 3rd  Kaotan 4th  Non 5th  Nao 6th  Ryoha Draft 1st  Sally

48: Original SKE 1st  WMatsui 2nd  Mukaida 3rd  Yuria 4th  Non 5th  Nannan 6th  Azumarion 7th  Rara

70: @OP 1st  Takamina > OK 2nd  Kana > No choice 3rd  Mayu > Yukirin is about equal 4th  Shiichan > OK 5th  Myao > Harukyan? 6th  Akicha > no choice 7th  Wasamin > ok 9th  Paru > ok 10th Renachii > but Annin is regular senbatsu? 11th Nattsun > ok 12th Tomu > OK for now 13th Mogi > even if you want to think this, it's not true 14th Naachan > Kojimako is probably still above 15th Mion > ok Draft 1st Sayaya > ok

74: AKB48 1st Acchan 2nd Yuko 3rd Mayu 4th Amina 5th Sasshi 6th Akicha 7th Komorin 9th Paru 10th Annin 11th Ricchan 12th Juri 13th Ryoka 14th Kojimako 15th Naanya D1st Sayaya

77: I tried choosing members by highest sousenkyo ranking 1st Acchan #1 2nd Yuko #1 3rd Mayu #1 4th Amina #8 5th Sasshi #1 6th Akicha #12 7th Komorin #30 9th Paru #7 10th Annin #20 11th Ricchan #16 12th Tomu #16 13th Mogi #57 14th Kojimako #26 15th Mion #44

78: SKE 1st Jurina #4 2nd Churi #14 3rd Dasu #10 4th Aya #15 5th Nao #24 6th Azumarion #61 D1st Sally #55

NMB 1st Sayanee #6 2nd Fuuchan #40 3rd Shuu #49

HKT 1st Sakuratan #7 2nd Mio #21