#midtermyear

[jeffhirsch]

Did the Trump Cycle Steal Sell in May Weakness?

May 1 kicks off the Worst Six Months. The question this year: did the Iran-driven selloff already do the seasonal work?

The Trump Presidency Seasonal Cycle we’ve been tracking remains in play. Five Trump presidency years — 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2025 — share a signature. Turbulence early, a bottom in late March or early April, then a rally into year-end. We added those five years to our S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern chart. 2026 is tracking it closely.

S&P 500 bottomed March 30 at 6343.72, down 9.1% from the January 27 high and hit a new record today, up 12.9% in 25 days. NASDAQ is at a record up 19.4% from the low. DJIA is 1.9% off its February 10 all-time high. The December Low Indicator triggered in March and was recovered quickly — historically a green light when paired with a positive January Barometer.

Our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell signal hasn't triggered, yet. The market will likely mark time through the 4-Year Cycle Weak Spot as the Iran conflict works toward resolution. Then the Q4 Sweet Spot. Our 2026 base case — 8-12% full-year gains — remains intact. If the conflict doesn't resolve and the Sell signal fires, we rotate.

Don't miss the Signal. Be first to know. Subscribers get the Seasonal MACD Sell Signal the moment it triggers right in their inboxes. Join Almanac Investor → https://stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/get-Almanac-for-free.aspx

[jeffhirsch]

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[jeffhirsch]

Sell in May During Midterm Crisis

Lots of chatter this week on Sell in May. Worst Six Months May-October are historically worst in the midterm year — but Sell in May has been up 9 of the last 10 years and 2025 was the best. Much of the May-October and midterm year Q2-Q3 weakness was pulled forward to the Q1 Iran war correction.

The market has largely moved on and clearly expects a resolution over the next few months, if not sooner. With the conflict still unresolved, expect the market to mark time and move sideways through the 4-Year Cycle Weak Spot and Sell in May as the Mideast works toward a resolution with likely setbacks and midterm election year politicking ramps up.

Trend matters far more than magnitude or level when reading these seasonal charts and historical analogs. We’ve updated the S&P 500’s performance before and after the start of crises. The quick recovery to pre-crisis levels and new all-time highs has been positive historically. But as the chart shows, after the initial shock and selloff, once the bounce back recovery is in, the market tends to mark time over the next few months as the crisis resolution plays out. This lines up with the seasonal weakness of the Worst Six Months and the 4-Year Cycle Weak Spot.