Brexit and The Butterfly Effect
Still thoroughly in shock about the Brexit vote, not because it won, but because of its consequences every single person in the UK. I am thinking of the effects whether a person voted for leave or stay, or because they are under the voting age and had no ability to vote for their future. Those under 18, and those in their twenties and thirties (many of whom did not cast a vote as did their elders) will be the ones to live and struggle with this legacy.
As a historian, I have been thinking of the global reach of individual choices--how this decision influences Putin and how it has tickled Marie Le Pen and how in more complicated ways it will change events as they unfold in Syria, Iraq, Iran, and so many other places.
But out of everything I have read in the last few days, Nicholas Barrett's comment in The Financial Times has begun to haunt me because as a historian I work on the very local, personal, and minute, and because I am a human being with a heart:
"The younger generation has lost the right to live and work in 27 other countries. We will never know the full extent of the lost opportunities, friendships, marriages and experiences we will be denied. Freedom of movement was taken away by our parents, uncles, and grandparents in a parting blow to a generation that was already drowning in the debts of our predecessors."
This reminds me of what the mathematician and chaos theorist Edward Lorenz called "The Butterfly Effect." This is the verifiable fact that a local, personal, minute, even imperceptible change can cause enormous change. As a history professor, I like to use the concept in my classes to work out the extraordinary ramifications of seemingly small or innocuous events. I could list several cataclysmic results that arose out of this or that royal birth (e.g. James 10 June 1688), this or that wrong turn (Princip's Bridge, Sarajevo 28 June 1914), etc.
Instead I want to return to the poignant "lost opportunities, friendships, marriages" that Nicholas Barrett reminds us will not happen. Love and relationships and marriages that now will not be. Children that will not come into the world. Yes, of course, Britons will still love, marry, and have children even if they never travel abroad again, but Barrett's point, my point is: every single young person's future has been altered in the most personal and particular way. The individuals that they love, couple with, and reproduce with has been changed. It has been changed because even if only five or ten percent of young Britons work in the EU, fallen in love, married, and had children, a small percentage nonetheless alters all the possibilities for every other person in all these systems, in the UK, in the EU, and everywhere else.
Sure, young Britons will find love and happiness, but their ability to have more opportunities for love and happiness has been taken away. Think, those of you who are filled with gratitude for the good fortune that brought you together with your most precious friends and if you are truly lucky your beloved partner. In my case, I think of the serendipitous and entirely unlikely way that my husband and I were brought together--there were so many tiny factors that were required for us to meet. Yes, we both had loved before, yes we both would have otherwise married and probably had children, but I often feel queasy (still 22 years later almost to the day) if we somehow had not been brought together because I cannot imagine anybody I could have loved more and who could love me more. It was travel, adventures, multiple cross-country and international friendships and opportunities that led us to each other, and nothing else. Think, those of you who are looking, who have not found your great friendship, your great life-changing adventure, your great love of your life, how it feels that your world of possibilities has been diminished by political isolationism with very real, very material consequences. Yes, love and marriage and reproduction will carry on. But unless you find the love of your life, you will always have to ask how might it have been different.
I don't expect that all who read this will get it. Nicholas Barrett's comments require intellectual imagination, Lorenz's facts about systems require understanding that none of us actually has control over our individual destiny, and my whole point requires the leap of imaginative compassion that each choice, each vote we make has consequences for every other human being around us, and those many more we will never meet.