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True Terror #1
True Terror #mitchsmith #paulanderson #bandasdesenhadas
Zone Komics publica a sua segunda BD de autores anglófonos.
Este mês, a Zone Komics aposta pela segunda vez na publicação de banda desenhada de autores anglófonos. Trata-se de True Terror, uma produção da norte-americana Mitch Smith Media, com argumento do próprio Smith e ilustrações de Paul Anderson. Ao contrário do que a Zone Komics nos foi habituando, este lançamento mundialmente inédito…
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Missouri Small School Quarterfinal Soccer
Missouri Small School Quarterfinal Soccer
So. Mitch Smith passes in the District final at Lutheran St. Charles on October 18, 2016 The Small School Quarterfinals are being played across the State today with only one local game – O’Fallon Christian is hosting #1 state-ranked St. Charles West at 4:00 pm. Winners will advance to the Final Four Friday at the WWT Soccer Park in Fenton. I haven’t seen a single one of these teams despite…
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Good morning everyone! Happy Tuesday to you!
Joining today's show are Mike Barnicle, Jonathan Capehart, Phil Mattingly, Eugene Robinson, Walter Isaacson, Robert Draper, Jackie Kucinich, Mark Leibovich, Comm. Bill Bratton, Chuck Todd, Gillian Tett, Brian Sullivan, Brene Brown and more
In the first non story of the day and week, Hillary Clinton emails: Thousands of new pages released.
Mrs Clinton, who is seeking the Democratic nomination for the 2016 presidential election, has been under fire for using a private computer server for work emails while in office. But she says no classified information was sent or received. But some 150 emails were deemed confidential by the State Department.
Mrs Clinton's opponents have accused her of putting US security at risk by using an unsecured computer system. The presidential hopeful has admitted that her decision to use a private email server at her New York home was a mistake.
She served as Secretary of State in 2009-13.
Ratings affected
The State Department released 4,368 emails - totalling 7,121 pages - late on Monday.
An email forwarded by Mrs Clinton's adviser Jacob Sullivan on Burma was published heavily redacted.
It said about 150 of the messages had to be censored because they contained information considered to be classified.
One of the emails - sent in November 2013 by Mrs Clinton's then foreign policy adviser Jacob Sullivan - was published heavily redacted and marked classified until 2025.
Mr Sullivan, who is now a policy adviser for Mrs Clinton's presidential campaign, forwarded her boss the email with the subject line: "No go on Burma (Myanmar) travel."
In another email - from September 2010 - Britain's David Miliband admitted that losing the Labour leadership race to Ed Miliband was "tough", adding: "When it's your brother..."
State Department spokesman Mark Toner was quoted by AFP as saying the process of re-evaluating the remaining unreleased emails was continuing.
The emails were not marked as classified at the time Mrs Clinton sent or received them. The vast majority of the correspondence concerned mundane matters of daily life at workplace, including phone messages and relays of daily schedules.
Associated Press says the emails revealed that Mrs Clinton and her aides were acutely aware of the need to protect sensitive information.
It says Mrs Clinton also expressed frustration with the State Department's treatment of certain ordinary documents as classified.
More than a quarter of Mrs Clinton's work emails have now been released, after she provided the State Department with 30,000 pages of documents last year.
Polls indicate that the email scandal has affected Mrs Clinton's ratings, though she remains the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
Democratic presidential candidate and former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton waits to be introduced at a campaign event on the campus of Des Moines Area Community College on August 26, 2015 in Ankeny, Iowa.
Why did she do it?
Mrs Clinton says the primary reason she set up her own email was for "convenience" but sceptics say the real reason she did it was because it gave her total control over her correspondence.
How many emails?
According to Mrs Clinton, she sent or received 62,320 emails during her time as secretary of state - she says half of them were official and have been turned over to the State Department.
Was it illegal?
Probably not. Mrs Clinton's email system existed in a grey area of the law - and one that has been changed several times since she left office.
Why the controversy?
It's a big deal because Mrs Clinton is asking the US public to trust that she is complying with both the "letter and the spirit of the rules". Critics on the left and the right are concerned she made her communications on sensitive national security issues more susceptible to hackers and foreign intelligence services.
Next, a New times Article reports how homicide rates are rising sharply in many U.S. cities.
Cities across the nation are seeing a startling rise in murders after years of declines, and few places have witnessed a shift as precipitous as this city. With the summer not yet over, 104 people have been killed this year — after 86 homicides in all of 2014.
More than 30 other cities have also reported increases in violence from a year ago. In New Orleans, 120 people had been killed by late August, compared with 98 during the same period a year earlier. In Baltimore, homicides have hit 215, up from 138 at the same point in 2014. In Washington, D.C., the toll is 105, compared with 73 people a year ago. And in St. Louis, 136 people have been killed this year, a 60 percent rise from the 85 murders the city had by the same time last year.
Law enforcement experts say disparate factors are at play in different cities, though no one is claiming to know for sure why murder rates are climbing. Some officials say intense national scrutiny of the use of force by the police has made officers less aggressive and emboldened criminals, though many experts dispute that theory.
Rivalries among street gangs, often over drug turf, and the availability of guns, are cited as major factors in some cities, including Chicago.
But more commonly, many top police officials say they are seeing a growing willingness among disenchanted young men in poor neighborhoods to use violence to settle ordinary disputes.
“Maintaining one’s status and credibility and honor, if you will, within that peer community is literally a matter of life and death,” Milwaukee’s police chief, Edward Flynn, said. “And that’s coupled with a very harsh reality, which is the mental calculation of those who live in that strata that it is more dangerous to get caught without their gun than to get caught with their gun.”
The results have often been devastating. Tamiko Holmes, a mother of five, has lost two of her nearly grown children in apparently unrelated shootings in the past eight months. In January, a daughter, 20, was shot to death during a robbery at a birthday party at a Days Inn. Six months later, the authorities called again: Her only son, 19, had been shot in the head in a car — a killing for which the police are still searching for a motive and a suspect.
Holmes said she recently persuaded her remaining teenage daughters to move away from Milwaukee with her, but not before one of them, 17, was wounded in a shooting while riding in a car.
“The violence was nothing like this before,” said Holmes, 38, who grew up in Milwaukee. “What’s changed is the streets and the laws and the parents. It’s become a mess and a struggle.”
An alarming trend
Urban bloodshed — as well as the overall violent crime rate — remains far below the peaks of the late 1980s and early ’90s, and criminologists say it is too early to draw broad conclusions from the recent numbers. In some cities, including Cincinnati, Los Angeles and Newark, New Jersey, homicides remain at a relatively steady rate this year.
Yet with at least 35 of the nation’s cities reporting increases in murders, violent crimes or both, according to a recent survey, the spikes are raising alarm among urban police chiefs. The uptick prompted an urgent summit meeting in August of more than 70 officials from some of the nation’s largest cities. A Justice Department initiative is scheduled to address the rising homicide rates as part of a conference in September.
“If you have that many cities that are having that kind of experiences, we ought to worry about it,” said Darrel Stephens, executive director of the Major Cities Chiefs Association and a former police chief in Charlotte, North Carolina.
In New York and Chicago, homicides have risen from the 2014 numbers, which officials said were the lowest in decades.
In New York, killings have increased about 9 percent, to 208 through mid-August from 190 a year earlier. Homicides in Chicago are up about 20 percent over the same period a year ago.
Why the uptick?
The police superintendent in Chicago, Garry McCarthy, said he thought an abundance of guns was a major factor in his city’s homicide spike. Even as officials in both parties are calling for reducing the prison population, he insisted that gun offenders should face stiffer penalties.
“Across the country, we’ve all found it’s not the individual who never committed a crime before suddenly killing somebody,” McCarthy said Monday. “It’s the repeat offenders. It’s the same people over and over again.”
Among some experts and rank-and-file officers, the notion that less aggressive policing has emboldened criminals — known as the “Ferguson effect” in some circles — is a popular theory for the uptick in violence.
“The equilibrium has changed between police and offenders,” said Alfred Blumstein, a professor and a criminologist at Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University.
Others doubt the theory or say data has not emerged to prove it. Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist from the University of Missouri-St. Louis, said homicides in St. Louis, for instance, had begun an arc upward in 2014 before a white police officer killed an unarmed teenager, Michael Brown, in nearby Ferguson. That data, he said, suggests that other factors may be in play.
Less debated is the sense among police officials that more young people are settling their disputes, including one started on Facebook, with guns.
Capt. Mike Sack, a homicide commander in the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department, cited killings there that had grown out of arguments over girlfriends, food and even characters on a TV show. “Most remarkable is that individuals get so upset over things that I or others might consider petty but resort to such a level of violence,” he said.
Monmouth University Poll IOWA: CARSON, TRUMP TIE FOR LEAD. Most voters can see themselves supporting several candidates. The Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers finds Ben Carson and Donald Trump tied for the top spot. This marks the first time since July 26 that a poll in any of the first four nominating states has not shown Trump with a nominal lead. Not surprisingly, given the top two contenders in the poll, most Iowa Republicans prefer someone without a traditional political pedigree. At this early stage, though, the vast majority of voters say their eventual support could go to one of several other candidates in spite of their current preference.
When Iowa Republicans are asked who they would support in their local caucus, Ben Carson. (23%) and Donald Trump (23%) tie for the top spot. The next tier of candidates includes Carly Fiorina. (10%) and Ted Cruz (9%), followed by Scott Walker (7%), Jeb Bush (5%), John Kasich (4%), Marco
Rubio (4%), and Rand Paul (3%). The last two Iowa caucus victors, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, each garner 2% of the vote. None of the other six candidates included in the poll register more than 1% support.
“These results mark a significant shake-up in the leaderboard from Monmouth’s Iowa poll taken before the first debate,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. “Carson and, to a lesser extent, Fiorina have surged, while Walker
has faded into the background.”
In mid-July, Walker was the front runner in Iowa, with Trump and Carson following behind. Since then, Walker’s support has dropped by 15 points, while Carson’s has increased by 15 points and Trump’s by 10 points. Support has also increased for Fiorina by 7 points since Monmouth’s last Iowa
poll.
Only 12% of likely Republican caucusgoers say they are completely decided on which candidate they will support in February. Another 42% have a strong preference now but are willing to consider Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/31/15. 2 other candidates, 27% percent have a slight preference, and 20% say they are really undecided even if they are able to name a choice now. Just 1-in-4 voters (25%) say they have their choice narrowed down to one or two candidates, while most (54%) say they can see themselves caucusing for any of 3 to 4 candidates currently in the race. Another 17% say they are realistically considering giving their support to 5 or more candidates in field.
Among voters who say their current decision is strongly locked in, Trump leads with 30%, compared to 22% for Carson. Among those who say they only have a slight preference or are up in the air, 25% support Carson and 16% back Trump. “Trump’s support is currently more solid than Carson’s, but Iowa voters are still considering quite a few candidates before they come to a final decision,” said Murray. Iowa GOP caucus goers say that, regardless of who they support in the primary, the country needs a president from outside of government who can bring a new approach to Washington (66%) rather than someone with government experience who knows how to get things done (23%). Among those who prefer an outsider, more than two-thirds are lacking one of the three candidates who have never held elected office – Trump (32%), Carson (26%), or Fiorina (13%). However, even among those who say the country needs someone with government experience, 30% are currently supporting one of these three candidates.
Looking at the fundamental strengths of leading candidates, Iowa Republicans now hold an almost universally positive opinion of Ben Carson at 81% favorable to just 6% unfavorable, compared to 63% favorable and 11% unfavorable in July. Carly Fiorina has also seen her numbers improve to 67% favorable and 8% unfavorable, up from 44% and 10% in July. John Kasich’s name recognition has also gone up but the gap between his positive and negative ratings remains similar at 32% favorable and 23% unfavorable, compared to 24% and 17% in the prior poll.
Donald Trump’s rating has ticked up slightly – now standing at 52% favorable and 33% unfavorable, compared to 47% and 35% in July – while the ratings for Scott Walker and Jeb Bush have taken a dip over the past month. Walker’s rating is now 64% favorable and 16% unfavorable, compared to 73% and 9% last month. Bush’s rating is now 32% favorable and 51% unfavorable, compared to 40% and 42% last month. Ted Cruz’s rating of 58% favorable and 21% unfavorable is similar to the 53% and 17% rating he held last month.
The poll also identified candidate support among key groups of GOP caucus goers, including:
Tea Party –Trump leads Carson 27% to 22% among Tea Party supporters, with Cruz at 16%. Among non-supporters of the Tea Party, Carson takes a 25% to 19% lead over Trump.
Ideology – Very conservative voters split their vote among Carson (24%), Trump (23%), and Cruz (16%). Somewhat conservative voters are most likely to back either Carson Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/31/15. 3(25%) or Trump (23%). Moderate to liberal voters prefer Trump (26%), followed by Fiorina (18%) and Carson (17%).
Evangelicals – Evangelical voters favor Carson (29%) followed by Trump (23%). Nonevangelical voters prefer Trump (24%), Carson (18%), and Fiorina (13%).
Gender – Men prefer Trump (27%) over Carson (17%), while women prefer Carson (30%) over Trump (19%).
“After more than a month of Trump winning virtually every Republican demographic group, we’ve finally got a little variation in voting blocs to talk about,” said Murray.
Hawkeye State Republicans are divided on whether their final decision about who to support in the Republican primary will come down to the candidate’s positions on the issues (45%) or their personal qualities and experiences (45%).
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from August 27 to 30, 2015 with 405 Iowa voters likely to attend the Republican presidential caucuses in February 2016. This sample has a margin of error of +4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
DATA TABLES
The questions referred to in this release are as follows:
(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)
1. Who would you support if the presidential caucus was being held today and the candidates for the Republican nomination were – [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
August 2015 July 2015
Jeb Bush 5% 7%
Ben Carson 23% 8%
Chris Christie 1% 1%
Ted Cruz 9% 7%
Carly Fiorina 10% 3%
Jim Gilmore 0% 0%
Lindsey Graham 0% 0%
Mike Huckabee 2% 6%
Bobby Jindal 1% 4%
John Kasich 4% 2%
George Pataki <1% <1%
Rand Paul 3% 5%
Rick Perry 1% 3%
Washington prepares for pivotal September vote in Congress on Iran nuclear deal. Advocates and skeptics of the Iran nuclear deal are plotting their final moves for support as Congress prepares to return from August recess next week to a consequential vote on the accord.
US President Barack Obama has nearly secured the votes necessary in the Senate to preserve the deal, which is to face a resolution of disapproval vote by September 17. To do so, he needs the support of only one-third of senators or an equivalent number in the House of Representatives.
That would allow him to sustain a veto of the resolution, should it pass. But his new goal, according to aides, is not only to pick up three additional senators, but to prevent the vote entirely by securing a total of 41 Senate Democrats in support of the deal.
Doing so allows the Democrats to filibuster, effectively preventing the vote from occurring. As of Monday, 31 senators had declared support for the accord.
Only two Democrats have joined a united Republican caucus, comprising 54 members in opposition. But those numbers are expected to change this week as undecided Democrats prepare to declare their intentions.
Senator Chris Coons (D-Delaware) is to deliver a speech on his decision Tuesday, and Senator Ben Cardin (D-Maryland) planned to meet with his constituents on the same day, as he considers his own vote.
Cardin’s meeting on Tuesday morning, at Johns Hopkins University, is to precede another Maryland community gathering: One held by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, just outside of Baltimore that evening.
AIPAC is hoping to secure Cardin, Coons and several other key Democrats on the fence who have expressed several concerns with the accord. Those include Senators Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, Bob Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania, Ron Wyden of Oregon, Michael Bennet of Colorado and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota.
The speechifying looks to continue on Wednesday when US Secretary of State John Kerry, who personally negotiated the deal, plans to respond to some of their concerns in an address in Philadelphia. His predecessor and front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, Hillary Rodham Clinton, is to deliver her first lengthy address on the deal a week later.
Clinton’s speech coincides with a rally against the deal on Capitol Hill held by Tea Party Patriots – a conservative political group – expected to draw thousands, including front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination Donald Trump as well as fellow candidate, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.
The day before that September 9 rally, former vice president Dick Cheney is delivering a speech on the deal at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.
Congress returns from recess on September 8.
Regardless of it all, please stay in touch!
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Good morning everyone! Happy Tuesday to you!
Joining today's show are Mike Barnicle, Jonathan Capehart, Phil Mattingly, Eugene Robinson, Walter Isaacson, Robert Draper, Jackie Kucinich, Mark Leibovich, Comm. Bill Bratton, Chuck Todd, Gillian Tett, Brian Sullivan, Brene Brown and more
In the first non story of the day and week, Hillary Clinton emails: Thousands of new pages released.
Mrs Clinton, who is seeking the Democratic nomination for the 2016 presidential election, has been under fire for using a private computer server for work emails while in office. But she says no classified information was sent or received. But some 150 emails were deemed confidential by the State Department.
Mrs Clinton's opponents have accused her of putting US security at risk by using an unsecured computer system. The presidential hopeful has admitted that her decision to use a private email server at her New York home was a mistake.
She served as Secretary of State in 2009-13.
Ratings affected
The State Department released 4,368 emails - totalling 7,121 pages - late on Monday.
An email forwarded by Mrs Clinton's adviser Jacob Sullivan on Burma was published heavily redacted.
It said about 150 of the messages had to be censored because they contained information considered to be classified.
One of the emails - sent in November 2013 by Mrs Clinton's then foreign policy adviser Jacob Sullivan - was published heavily redacted and marked classified until 2025.
Mr Sullivan, who is now a policy adviser for Mrs Clinton's presidential campaign, forwarded her boss the email with the subject line: "No go on Burma (Myanmar) travel."
In another email - from September 2010 - Britain's David Miliband admitted that losing the Labour leadership race to Ed Miliband was "tough", adding: "When it's your brother..."
State Department spokesman Mark Toner was quoted by AFP as saying the process of re-evaluating the remaining unreleased emails was continuing.
The emails were not marked as classified at the time Mrs Clinton sent or received them. The vast majority of the correspondence concerned mundane matters of daily life at workplace, including phone messages and relays of daily schedules.
Associated Press says the emails revealed that Mrs Clinton and her aides were acutely aware of the need to protect sensitive information.
It says Mrs Clinton also expressed frustration with the State Department's treatment of certain ordinary documents as classified.
More than a quarter of Mrs Clinton's work emails have now been released, after she provided the State Department with 30,000 pages of documents last year.
Polls indicate that the email scandal has affected Mrs Clinton's ratings, though she remains the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
Democratic presidential candidate and former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton waits to be introduced at a campaign event on the campus of Des Moines Area Community College on August 26, 2015 in Ankeny, Iowa.
Why did she do it?
Mrs Clinton says the primary reason she set up her own email was for "convenience" but sceptics say the real reason she did it was because it gave her total control over her correspondence.
How many emails?
According to Mrs Clinton, she sent or received 62,320 emails during her time as secretary of state - she says half of them were official and have been turned over to the State Department.
Was it illegal?
Probably not. Mrs Clinton's email system existed in a grey area of the law - and one that has been changed several times since she left office.
Why the controversy?
It's a big deal because Mrs Clinton is asking the US public to trust that she is complying with both the "letter and the spirit of the rules". Critics on the left and the right are concerned she made her communications on sensitive national security issues more susceptible to hackers and foreign intelligence services.
Next, a New times Article reports how homicide rates are rising sharply in many U.S. cities.
Cities across the nation are seeing a startling rise in murders after years of declines, and few places have witnessed a shift as precipitous as this city. With the summer not yet over, 104 people have been killed this year — after 86 homicides in all of 2014.
More than 30 other cities have also reported increases in violence from a year ago. In New Orleans, 120 people had been killed by late August, compared with 98 during the same period a year earlier. In Baltimore, homicides have hit 215, up from 138 at the same point in 2014. In Washington, D.C., the toll is 105, compared with 73 people a year ago. And in St. Louis, 136 people have been killed this year, a 60 percent rise from the 85 murders the city had by the same time last year.
Law enforcement experts say disparate factors are at play in different cities, though no one is claiming to know for sure why murder rates are climbing. Some officials say intense national scrutiny of the use of force by the police has made officers less aggressive and emboldened criminals, though many experts dispute that theory.
Rivalries among street gangs, often over drug turf, and the availability of guns, are cited as major factors in some cities, including Chicago.
But more commonly, many top police officials say they are seeing a growing willingness among disenchanted young men in poor neighborhoods to use violence to settle ordinary disputes.
“Maintaining one’s status and credibility and honor, if you will, within that peer community is literally a matter of life and death,” Milwaukee’s police chief, Edward Flynn, said. “And that’s coupled with a very harsh reality, which is the mental calculation of those who live in that strata that it is more dangerous to get caught without their gun than to get caught with their gun.”
The results have often been devastating. Tamiko Holmes, a mother of five, has lost two of her nearly grown children in apparently unrelated shootings in the past eight months. In January, a daughter, 20, was shot to death during a robbery at a birthday party at a Days Inn. Six months later, the authorities called again: Her only son, 19, had been shot in the head in a car — a killing for which the police are still searching for a motive and a suspect.
Holmes said she recently persuaded her remaining teenage daughters to move away from Milwaukee with her, but not before one of them, 17, was wounded in a shooting while riding in a car.
“The violence was nothing like this before,” said Holmes, 38, who grew up in Milwaukee. “What’s changed is the streets and the laws and the parents. It’s become a mess and a struggle.”
An alarming trend
Urban bloodshed — as well as the overall violent crime rate — remains far below the peaks of the late 1980s and early ’90s, and criminologists say it is too early to draw broad conclusions from the recent numbers. In some cities, including Cincinnati, Los Angeles and Newark, New Jersey, homicides remain at a relatively steady rate this year.
Yet with at least 35 of the nation’s cities reporting increases in murders, violent crimes or both, according to a recent survey, the spikes are raising alarm among urban police chiefs. The uptick prompted an urgent summit meeting in August of more than 70 officials from some of the nation’s largest cities. A Justice Department initiative is scheduled to address the rising homicide rates as part of a conference in September.
“If you have that many cities that are having that kind of experiences, we ought to worry about it,” said Darrel Stephens, executive director of the Major Cities Chiefs Association and a former police chief in Charlotte, North Carolina.
In New York and Chicago, homicides have risen from the 2014 numbers, which officials said were the lowest in decades.
In New York, killings have increased about 9 percent, to 208 through mid-August from 190 a year earlier. Homicides in Chicago are up about 20 percent over the same period a year ago.
Why the uptick?
The police superintendent in Chicago, Garry McCarthy, said he thought an abundance of guns was a major factor in his city’s homicide spike. Even as officials in both parties are calling for reducing the prison population, he insisted that gun offenders should face stiffer penalties.
“Across the country, we’ve all found it’s not the individual who never committed a crime before suddenly killing somebody,” McCarthy said Monday. “It’s the repeat offenders. It’s the same people over and over again.”
Among some experts and rank-and-file officers, the notion that less aggressive policing has emboldened criminals — known as the “Ferguson effect” in some circles — is a popular theory for the uptick in violence.
“The equilibrium has changed between police and offenders,” said Alfred Blumstein, a professor and a criminologist at Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University.
Others doubt the theory or say data has not emerged to prove it. Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist from the University of Missouri-St. Louis, said homicides in St. Louis, for instance, had begun an arc upward in 2014 before a white police officer killed an unarmed teenager, Michael Brown, in nearby Ferguson. That data, he said, suggests that other factors may be in play.
Less debated is the sense among police officials that more young people are settling their disputes, including one started on Facebook, with guns.
Capt. Mike Sack, a homicide commander in the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department, cited killings there that had grown out of arguments over girlfriends, food and even characters on a TV show. “Most remarkable is that individuals get so upset over things that I or others might consider petty but resort to such a level of violence,” he said.
Monmouth University Poll IOWA: CARSON, TRUMP TIE FOR LEAD. Most voters can see themselves supporting several candidates. The Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers finds Ben Carson and Donald Trump tied for the top spot. This marks the first time since July 26 that a poll in any of the first four nominating states has not shown Trump with a nominal lead. Not surprisingly, given the top two contenders in the poll, most Iowa Republicans prefer someone without a traditional political pedigree. At this early stage, though, the vast majority of voters say their eventual support could go to one of several other candidates in spite of their current preference.
When Iowa Republicans are asked who they would support in their local caucus, Ben Carson. (23%) and Donald Trump (23%) tie for the top spot. The next tier of candidates includes Carly Fiorina. (10%) and Ted Cruz (9%), followed by Scott Walker (7%), Jeb Bush (5%), John Kasich (4%), Marco
Rubio (4%), and Rand Paul (3%). The last two Iowa caucus victors, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, each garner 2% of the vote. None of the other six candidates included in the poll register more than 1% support.
“These results mark a significant shake-up in the leaderboard from Monmouth’s Iowa poll taken before the first debate,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. “Carson and, to a lesser extent, Fiorina have surged, while Walker
has faded into the background.”
In mid-July, Walker was the front runner in Iowa, with Trump and Carson following behind. Since then, Walker’s support has dropped by 15 points, while Carson’s has increased by 15 points and Trump’s by 10 points. Support has also increased for Fiorina by 7 points since Monmouth’s last Iowa
poll.
Only 12% of likely Republican caucusgoers say they are completely decided on which candidate they will support in February. Another 42% have a strong preference now but are willing to consider Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/31/15. 2 other candidates, 27% percent have a slight preference, and 20% say they are really undecided even if they are able to name a choice now. Just 1-in-4 voters (25%) say they have their choice narrowed down to one or two candidates, while most (54%) say they can see themselves caucusing for any of 3 to 4 candidates currently in the race. Another 17% say they are realistically considering giving their support to 5 or more candidates in field.
Among voters who say their current decision is strongly locked in, Trump leads with 30%, compared to 22% for Carson. Among those who say they only have a slight preference or are up in the air, 25% support Carson and 16% back Trump. “Trump’s support is currently more solid than Carson’s, but Iowa voters are still considering quite a few candidates before they come to a final decision,” said Murray. Iowa GOP caucus goers say that, regardless of who they support in the primary, the country needs a president from outside of government who can bring a new approach to Washington (66%) rather than someone with government experience who knows how to get things done (23%). Among those who prefer an outsider, more than two-thirds are lacking one of the three candidates who have never held elected office – Trump (32%), Carson (26%), or Fiorina (13%). However, even among those who say the country needs someone with government experience, 30% are currently supporting one of these three candidates.
Looking at the fundamental strengths of leading candidates, Iowa Republicans now hold an almost universally positive opinion of Ben Carson at 81% favorable to just 6% unfavorable, compared to 63% favorable and 11% unfavorable in July. Carly Fiorina has also seen her numbers improve to 67% favorable and 8% unfavorable, up from 44% and 10% in July. John Kasich’s name recognition has also gone up but the gap between his positive and negative ratings remains similar at 32% favorable and 23% unfavorable, compared to 24% and 17% in the prior poll.
Donald Trump’s rating has ticked up slightly – now standing at 52% favorable and 33% unfavorable, compared to 47% and 35% in July – while the ratings for Scott Walker and Jeb Bush have taken a dip over the past month. Walker’s rating is now 64% favorable and 16% unfavorable, compared to 73% and 9% last month. Bush’s rating is now 32% favorable and 51% unfavorable, compared to 40% and 42% last month. Ted Cruz’s rating of 58% favorable and 21% unfavorable is similar to the 53% and 17% rating he held last month.
The poll also identified candidate support among key groups of GOP caucus goers, including:
Tea Party –Trump leads Carson 27% to 22% among Tea Party supporters, with Cruz at 16%. Among non-supporters of the Tea Party, Carson takes a 25% to 19% lead over Trump.
Ideology – Very conservative voters split their vote among Carson (24%), Trump (23%), and Cruz (16%). Somewhat conservative voters are most likely to back either Carson Monmouth University Polling Institute 8/31/15. 3(25%) or Trump (23%). Moderate to liberal voters prefer Trump (26%), followed by Fiorina (18%) and Carson (17%).
Evangelicals – Evangelical voters favor Carson (29%) followed by Trump (23%). Nonevangelical voters prefer Trump (24%), Carson (18%), and Fiorina (13%).
Gender – Men prefer Trump (27%) over Carson (17%), while women prefer Carson (30%) over Trump (19%).
“After more than a month of Trump winning virtually every Republican demographic group, we’ve finally got a little variation in voting blocs to talk about,” said Murray.
Hawkeye State Republicans are divided on whether their final decision about who to support in the Republican primary will come down to the candidate’s positions on the issues (45%) or their personal qualities and experiences (45%).
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from August 27 to 30, 2015 with 405 Iowa voters likely to attend the Republican presidential caucuses in February 2016. This sample has a margin of error of +4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
DATA TABLES
The questions referred to in this release are as follows:
(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)
1. Who would you support if the presidential caucus was being held today and the candidates for the Republican nomination were – [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
August 2015 July 2015
Jeb Bush 5% 7%
Ben Carson 23% 8%
Chris Christie 1% 1%
Ted Cruz 9% 7%
Carly Fiorina 10% 3%
Jim Gilmore 0% 0%
Lindsey Graham 0% 0%
Mike Huckabee 2% 6%
Bobby Jindal 1% 4%
John Kasich 4% 2%
George Pataki <1% <1%
Rand Paul 3% 5%
Rick Perry 1% 3%
Washington prepares for pivotal September vote in Congress on Iran nuclear deal. Advocates and skeptics of the Iran nuclear deal are plotting their final moves for support as Congress prepares to return from August recess next week to a consequential vote on the accord.
US President Barack Obama has nearly secured the votes necessary in the Senate to preserve the deal, which is to face a resolution of disapproval vote by September 17. To do so, he needs the support of only one-third of senators or an equivalent number in the House of Representatives.
That would allow him to sustain a veto of the resolution, should it pass. But his new goal, according to aides, is not only to pick up three additional senators, but to prevent the vote entirely by securing a total of 41 Senate Democrats in support of the deal.
Doing so allows the Democrats to filibuster, effectively preventing the vote from occurring. As of Monday, 31 senators had declared support for the accord.
Only two Democrats have joined a united Republican caucus, comprising 54 members in opposition. But those numbers are expected to change this week as undecided Democrats prepare to declare their intentions.
Senator Chris Coons (D-Delaware) is to deliver a speech on his decision Tuesday, and Senator Ben Cardin (D-Maryland) planned to meet with his constituents on the same day, as he considers his own vote.
Cardin’s meeting on Tuesday morning, at Johns Hopkins University, is to precede another Maryland community gathering: One held by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, just outside of Baltimore that evening.
AIPAC is hoping to secure Cardin, Coons and several other key Democrats on the fence who have expressed several concerns with the accord. Those include Senators Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, Bob Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania, Ron Wyden of Oregon, Michael Bennet of Colorado and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota.
The speechifying looks to continue on Wednesday when US Secretary of State John Kerry, who personally negotiated the deal, plans to respond to some of their concerns in an address in Philadelphia. His predecessor and front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, Hillary Rodham Clinton, is to deliver her first lengthy address on the deal a week later.
Clinton’s speech coincides with a rally against the deal on Capitol Hill held by Tea Party Patriots – a conservative political group – expected to draw thousands, including front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination Donald Trump as well as fellow candidate, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.
The day before that September 9 rally, former vice president Dick Cheney is delivering a speech on the deal at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.
Congress returns from recess on September 8.
Regardless of it all, please stay in touch!
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