#mlb nl

[doughslapper]

10/03/21: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

Pick Threshold: -170

The Take: Cardinals have been the hottest team in baseball in the last month. Cubs have been a good road dog, but on the last day of the season I expect the Cardinals to be the team to still be playing hard. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Cardinals

Gut Odds: -200

Vegas Odds: -155

Fair Odds: -180

Past Profit with Cardinals: +2.91

Past Record with Cardinals: 7-4

Past Profit against Cubs: -1.52

Past Record against Cubs: 2-3

Result: Loss

Summing Up: The game was called after 7 innings and the Cardinals did not get a chance to exploit the Cubs awful bullpen. Bad break for us. 

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10/02/21: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Pick: Colorado Rockies

Pick Threshold: +110

The Take: Vegas is overfitting to the name Gallen who has had tough year by his standards. Plus, the Diamondbacks bullpen is truly terrible. Rockies have good value with a competitive pitcher, better offense, and better bullpen. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Rockies

Gut Odds: -110

Vegas Odds: +117

Fair Odds: -125

Past Profit with Rockies: -0.37

Past Record with Rockies: 4-3

Past Profit against Diamondbacks: -1.62

Past Record against Diamondbacks: 4-4

Result: Loss 

Summing Up: Rockies got blown out, 2-11. Gallen was good for 6 innings and 2 earned runs. We were wrong in this one. 

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10/02/21: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

Pick: Atlanta Braves

Pick Threshold: -135

The Take: Vegas is overfitting to the situation rather than the talent of these two teams. Braves are really good except for some bullpen issues. Mets have holes all over the place. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Braves

Gut Odds: -170

Vegas Odds: -120

Fair Odds: -209

Past Profit with Braves: +1.64

Past Record with Braves: 4-1

Past Profit against Mets: -0.62

Past Record against Mets: 4-3

Result: Win

Summing Up: We were all over this game. Braves were the better team but almost allowed the Mets to come back because of bullpen issues. 

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10/02/21: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

Pick: San Francisco Giants

Pick Threshold: -175

The Take: Giants taking the last series against the Padres would be fitting since they basically lived the season the Padres were supposed to experience. An exclamation point on dream crushing will be delivered tonight. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Giants

Gut Odds: -200

Vegas Odds: -163

Fair Odds: -383

Past Profit with Giants: -4.36

Past Record with Giants: 3-7

Past Profit against Padres: +1.69

Past Record against Padres: 6-6

Result: Loss

Summing Up: In a game the Giants needed to win, they were unable to come up with the big hit. Very surprised the best team in baseball couldn’t win when they needed to. 

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09/29/21: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

Pick: Atlanta Braves

Pick Threshold: -150

The Take: Fried is a legitimate ace. Nola is not on his level. Phillies lineup isn’t as deep as the Braves. If the Braves can avoid the big game from Harper, then they will win easily. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Braves

Gut Odds: -170

Vegas Odds: -145

Fair Odds: -118

Past Profit with Braves: +0.95

Past Record with Braves: 3-1

Past Profit against Phillies: +0.19

Past Record against Phillies: 4-4

Result: Win

Summing Up: Harper went 0 for 4 with 4 strikeouts and when he doesn’t hit, neither do the Phillies. Harper is hitless in this series. 

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09/28/21: Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies

Pick: Colorado Rockies

Pick Threshold: -150

The Take: Rockies are 46-33 at home this year and the Nationals are terrible. This pick has amazing value especially after Rockies dropped a game to the Nationals yesterday. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Rockies

Gut Odds: -160

Vegas Odds: -133

Fair Odds: -209

Past Profit with Rockies: -1.13

Past Record with Rockies: 3-3

Past Profit against Nationals: +2.00

Past Record against Nationals: 4-1

Result: Win

Summing Up: Nationals predictably blew a good start from Corbin. When Soto isn’t going off, they can’t hit. 

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09/25/21: Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Cincinnati Reds

Pick Threshold: -160

The Take: The Nationals are really bad and have nothing to play for. Reds are still sort of in the wild card race. If Reds can avoid giving up a 3 run homer to Soto, they will win. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Reds

Gut Odds: -180

Vegas Odds: -145

Fair Odds: -171

Past Profit with Reds: +1.57

Past Record with Reds: 3-1

Past Profit against Nationals: +1.31

Past Record against Nationals: 3-1

Result: Win

Summing Up: Reds held Soto to a single and a walk and won by 1 run with a walk off homer in the ninth. This game was closer than expected but Nats finds ways to lose. 

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09/24/21: New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

Pick Threshold: -150

The Take: Mets really struggle to beat elite teams. Brewers are a risk to be indifferent in this game with their big division lead. But, the risk is worth it against the Mets. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Brewers

Gut Odds: -180

Vegas Odds: -140

Fair Odds: -191

Past Profit with Brewers: +0.96

Past Record with Brewers: 4-2

Past Profit against Mets: -1.33

Past Record against Mets: 3-3

Result: Win

Summing Up: Lauer to Suter to Hader is rough on the Mets. Easy pitching win for the Brewers in this one.