Understanding Social Security's Future: What You Need to Know
The Expert
With concerns mounting about Social Security's long-term viability, Chad Wadups, Vice President of Wealth Management at Mountain America Investment Services, recently joined me to clarify what Americans can expect from this crucial retirement program.
How Social Security Works Today
Currently, workers contribute to Social Security through a payroll tax of 6.2%, which employers match for a total of 12.4%. Self-employed individuals pay the full amount themselves. These funds flow into a trust fund invested in treasury bonds, which then pays benefits to current recipients.
The system worked well until recently. The trust fund grew consistently until 2021, but since then, more money has been flowing out to beneficiaries than coming in from payroll taxes—sparking widespread concern about the program's future.
The Reality Check: Will Social Security Disappear?
Despite frequent speculation, Waddoups believes it's highly unlikely that Social Security will be eliminated entirely. The current administration has repeatedly stated its commitment to maintaining the program, and politically, eliminating benefits for over 70 million Americans who depend on them would be extraordinarily difficult.
However, the program does face real challenges. According to the Social Security Administration's 2024 projections, the trust fund will be depleted by 2035—just 10 years away. This doesn't mean benefits will disappear completely, though. Even without the trust fund, incoming payroll taxes would still cover approximately 73% of promised benefits, meaning recipients could see a reduction of about 25-27%.
Proposed Solutions
Several options are being discussed to shore up the system:
Eliminating taxes on benefits: Currently, recipients can be taxed on up to 85% of their Social Security income. Removing this tax would put more money in retirees' pockets but would actually reduce the trust fund, since those taxes currently flow back into the system.
Increasing payroll taxes: Even a small increase in the current 6.2% rate could significantly extend the fund's longevity, though this remains politically unpopular.
Raising the eligibility age: Currently set at 62 for reduced benefits and 67 for full retirement (for those born after 1960), pushing these ages back could help the system last longer.
Addressing fraud: Some estimates suggest that fraud and abuse within Social Security and Medicare could total over $500 billion annually, though these figures remain unverified.
What Individuals Can Do
For those worried about their retirement security, Waddoups emphasizes the importance of personal responsibility. Today's retirement landscape differs dramatically from previous generations—people are living decades longer, potentially facing 30-year retirements rather than the 5-10 years common in earlier eras.
His key recommendations include:
Start saving now: Whether through a 401(k), IRA, or other retirement accounts, begin contributing immediately. The best time was 20 years ago; the next best time is today.
Understand your numbers: Visit the Social Security Administration website to see exactly what you've paid in and what benefits you can expect. This information is crucial for retirement planning.
Meet with a financial advisor: Professional guidance can help you determine if your savings will be sufficient and what lifestyle adjustments might be necessary.
Plan your retirement lifestyle: Before retiring, consider what you actually want to do. Many retirees discover that stopping work without a plan leads to restlessness and sometimes a return to part-time employment.
The Bottom Line
While Social Security faces challenges, the program is likely to continue in some form. Most Americans will probably receive benefits, though they may be reduced. The key is treating Social Security as one component of retirement income rather than the sole source, and taking personal action to ensure financial security in later years.
As Waddoups notes, about four in ten Social Security recipients rely on it as their sole income source, while six in ten use it as a supplement. For those approaching retirement, understanding where you fall in this spectrum—and planning accordingly—has never been more important.
