If you’re going for the Diavolo UR, on average it takes on average 625 pulls (312 500 points) to get one.
To get the Simeon SSR card, it would take on average 168 pulls (84 000 points) to get.
This is an estimate. Since this is basically a loot box, you could be very lucky and get everything in the first try, or it could take a lot more pulls.
This is based on the number of rewards you need to get in each box, to move on to the next one. How I calculated, and assumptions I made it under cut for the stats and math phobic.
If any of my math seems wrong let me know! Hope this helps with people’s planning for the event.
Probability
Each box has 250 items in it. To move on to the next box, you need to get the special item.
For the first box, the probability of getting the special item in your first pull is 2/250.
If you didn’t get the special item, and then the probability of getting the special item on your second pull is 2/249. That’s because we already won a prize, and can’t get it again. If we keep missing the special item, then the probabilities would be of drawing the special item is 2/248, 2/247, 2/246 etc for each following pull.
I’m assuming Solmare modeled their probability this way.
For the Simeon card, I calculated it would take on average 168 pulls (84 000 points) to get.
I simulated how many pulls it would take to get the 2 Simeon prizes, out of 250 total prizes.
Then I did this 10 000 times, and the average number of pulls it too get there was 168.
For the Diavolo UR, I calculated 625 pulls (312 500 points).
I did the same simulation I used with Simeon, but then extended it to the three other boxes.
I assumed the player would immediately move on to the next box once they can.
I have some distribution plots showing how pulls it takes to get the UR.
About 40% of the simulations took 550-750 pulls to get to the UR.
