“The new renaissance”: Ian Goldin on managing complexity
We are living in a time of the most progressive change in the history of humanity, observes Ian Goldin, Professor of Globalisation and Development at the University of Oxford, whilst reflecting on the rapid rate of innovation that is shaping the modern world. However, the networks that underpin this change add layers of complexity that have hitherto never existed. Complexity, he argues, leaves us vulnerable to far greater risks.
In his 2014 book, The Butterfly Defect: How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to do About It, Goldin and co-author Mike Mariathasan suggest that the hyper-connectivity of globalised society – whether physically (in terms of the increasingly uninhibited movement of people and goods), digitally or culturally – means that very small events can have a comparatively huge, and catastrophic, global impact: their so-called “butterfly defect”.
Drawing comparisons to the explosion of creativity and scientific advancement that emerged from the invention of the printing press nearly six centuries ago, Goldin describes our current era as “the new renaissance”: “this is about how the internet and the resultant spread of ideas have led to revolutions in science and society.” In a time of such rapid innovation, he is predominantly optimistic.
However, Goldin’s expertise in global development (before joining Oxford, he was Vice President of the World Bank for three years) leads him to warn against techno-utopianism: “One shouldn’t assume that technologies always give rise to good outcomes; that’s not always the case. It’s not just good things that travel rapidly, but really bad things too.” As examples, he points to the cascading global financial crisis, cyber threats and the spread of extremism. “ISIS has become the organisation with the largest foreign recruitment since the Spanish Civil War, in part due to its effectiveness in using social media.” On the internet, toxic ideas can spread almost instantaneously.
In December, Goldin will address the audience of OEB 2015, the global conference on technology supported learning and training. With a vital message for educators who are attempting to equip the next generation to live in amongst this complexity, Goldin will share his views on our shared responsibility for managing systemic risk.
“While the opportunities are enormous and people’s ability to learn using technology has grown, we need to be aware that this is a very precious thing and also a very fragile thing – this connectedness. We need to be more effective with managing it and managing globalisation, to ensure we sustain the good and are able to minimise the bad.”
According to Goldin, systemic risk management is a multi-level synergetic system of shared responsibility, starting with individuals making choices about the energy we use, the products we buy, the food we consume and the medicines we take.
Once we come together into communities, he says, there are more choices to be made, regarding transport, energy, the climate, cyber defence and financial systems. “At a national level there are big choices about how joined up we are, how much we cooperate with others, how much we help solve problems elsewhere, or create new problems ourselves or aggravate them.“
“At the global level, the choice is whether countries communicate about these crucial issues as well. Are we prepared to be part of coalitions of countries that work towards the solutions for some of these issues, or are we part of the obstructing group?”
Goldin stresses the role of businesses in this system, where they hold the special position of transcending many boarders and having capabilities that governments and individuals do not. Amongst other things, he says, they have the responsibility to behave.
“The terrible case of Volkswagen is an illustration of how these technologies can be gamed, but so too are the banks who brought down the financial system, and the many corporates that act only in the short-term. Businesses need to be long term in their visions and think about the spill-over effects of their decisions, incorporating them into their decision making.” He highlights carbon emissions and water scarcity as potential spill-overs. Misappropriation and misuse of data by global corporations and widespread corruption are also areas in which a responsibility deficit has had wide-ranging impact in recent years.
“We all have multiple responsibilities because we are individuals who also live in cities, who also work in businesses, who are also part of nation states, and so on. Our intersection is in many, many different dimensions and it’s whether we are effective with that connectivity or not,” concludes Goldin, “that is going to determine whether there’s a happy ending or a much more dystopian future.”
