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PART II: The Syria Question: Policy Recommendations for Current Conflict

The Syria Question: Policy Recommendations for Current Conflict by Megan Anderson

The current goals of the United States are to put an immediate stop to the Syrian government’s use of violence against civilians and to pressure the Assad regime to step down from power so that a peaceful democratic transition can take place as per the demands of the Syrian people (Obama, Barack). In order to carry out these objectives, the Obama administration must support the Syrian opposition while working with its international partners to further isolate and pressure the Assad regime through diplomatic and financial means. The administration should pursue a strategy that is aimed at both weakening the regime’s support bases and encouraging the opposition to demonstrate that it seeks a nonsectarian and democratic Syria.

Supporting the Opposition: Delegitimizing the Assad Regime

  The Syrian National Council, or SNC, is a Syrian opposition coalition that formed in August of 2011 against the government of Bashar Al-Assad. Syrian dissidents formed the national council in order to represent the concerns and demands of the Syrian people and reinforce a united front against the Assad regime (Watson). According to the Syrian National Council, it seeks to achieve the following goals:

  “To deliver the voice of the Syrian revolution and its demands to the international community; To secure political support for the peaceful revolution; To promote national unity during the transition phase; To ensure there is no political vacuum; and To develop a roadmap for democratic change in Syria” (SNC).

              The 260-member council recently announced its plans for a post-Assad Syria. The council plans to lead an interim government, with the help of the military, in order to guarantee the security of the country and its unity once the regime falls. “An interim government would organize an internationally supervised ballot within a year to elect a ‘founding assembly’ that would draft a new constitution to be put to a referendum. A parliamentary election would be organized within six months” (Oweis, Khaled Y.).           Most members of the Syrian National Council are Sunni Muslims, which make up three-fourths, or seventy-five percent, of the total Syrian population. The Assad regime, in comparison, is Alawite (a branch of Shiite Islam). Although Alawites only make up ten to fifteen percent of the population, the regime’s support rests in the Alawite community – it is no coincidence that the best-armed and best-trained divisions of the Syrian army are Alawite (Oweis, Khaled Y.).

In order to establish the Syrian National Council as the legitimate interim government of a post-Assad Syria, the council must affirm its commitment to the equal treatment of all Syrians, without regard to sect or religious belief. The Obama administration should encourage a united front of the Syrian National Council by supporting the inclusion of Alawites and other non-Sunnis into the council and creation of an interim government. In order to achieve the full support of the Syrian population, the Syrian National Council must pledge that the post-Assad Syria will protect all minorities: The Alawites, the Kurds, and the Christians – and that these groups will be considered equal to the majority Sunni Muslim population under the new Syrian Constitution. Once the Syrian National Council gains the popular support of the Syrian people (democratically), the international community will be more likely to recognize the SNC as a legitimate governing body over the Assad regime.

Isolating & Pressuring Assad Regionally: The Arab League

              The Arab League has addressed the Syrian conflict with much more aggression than what is traditionally expected from the regional organization. The League voted to suspend Syria’s membership after Assad failed to meet an agreement aimed at ending the violence against political dissidents and beginning dialogue with the political opposition. In acting against Syria, a core member of the group, the Arab League is asserting its role as a regional leader by making an effort to end the crisis and hold the Syrian government accountable for its actions. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton commended the suspension of Syria’s membership to the Arab League, stating: “the international pressure will continue to build until the brutal Assad regime heeds the calls of its own people and the world community” (Rodham Clinton, Hillary).  

After suspending Syria’s membership to the Arab League, tough economic sanctions against Syria were approved by nineteen of the League’s twenty-two members on November 27, 2011. The sanctions include a travel ban against Syrian officials and politicians, a halt to dealings with the Syrian Central Bank, and the end of all Arab-financed projects in the country (MacFarquhar, Neil). The economic sanctions imposed by the Arab-League are an attempt to further isolate and apply pressure to the Assad regime and the Syrian economy – which have already been sanctioned by the European Union and the United States.

            The main issue regarding the Arab League’s economic sanctions is that they remain extremely limited, due to the fact that Syria’s three largest trading partners will not participate in fulfilling the sanctions. “Economists estimate that about 50 percent of Syrian trade is with the Arab world, but the largest chunk of that is with its immediate neighbors, including Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan” (MacFarquhar, Neil). Iraq abstained from the Arab League vote, while Lebanon “disassociated” itself from the vote entirely – however, both countries stated that they would not enforce the sanctions. Jordan displayed mixed-signals to the League and remains undecided in how it will carry out the Arab League’s resolution.

              If increased economic pressure is to be applied to the Assad regime, measures must be taken to convince the governments of Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan that cooperating with the Arab League sanctions will ultimately fulfill their national interests in a greater sense than continuing trade relations with Syria. If the Obama administration sincerely wants to wage economic warfare against the Syrian government, incentives must be offered to Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan that outweigh the benefits received from continuing trade relations with Syria. If the states that directly deal with the Syrian economy (Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan) are pressured by the United States and the international community to suspend their financial relationships with Syria, the Syrian economy will become significantly crippled, resulting in further discontent and the increased undermining of the Assad regime.

  Isolating & Pressuring Assad Internationally: The United Nations

              The Obama administration has made significant efforts to apply pressure on the international community in order to condemn Syrian President Bashar-Al-Assad. With the support of the United States, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, the United Nations has attempted to pass a number of resolutions aiming to condemn the various human rights violations in Syria. Both Russia and China, who have strategic interests in Syria and permanent seats on the U.N. Security Council, continued to veto these resolutions, preventing any U.N. action from taking place against the Assad regime. On October 4, 2011, in a rare double veto not seen since 2008, Russia and China knocked down a Security Council resolution that called for Assad to halt the crackdown that began in March and has killed more than 3,500 people, according to U.N. estimates (Krause-Jackson, Flavia).

            The worsening situation in Syria has forced a number of Arab countries in the region to support a U.N. resolution that would condemn the Assad regime for its violent crackdowns on political dissidents. Last week (November 22), the United Nations human rights committee passed a nonbinding resolution calling on President Assad to implement an Arab League plan to end the violence. The latest resolution says the committee "strongly condemns the continued grave and systematic human rights violations by the Syrian authorities, such as arbitrary executions, excessive use of force and the persecution and killing of protesters and human rights defenders" (Krause-Jackson, Flavia). The significance of this specific resolution is that is backed not only by Western nations, but also by several Arab nations, which include Bahrain, Jordan (a crucial Syrian trade partner), Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Russia and China abstained from voting on the resolution.

                        The Obama administration should continue to encourage the cooperation between the Arab League and the United Nations. The Arab League has been traditionally reluctant to involve the U.N. in the affairs of its twenty-two member nations, but has recently turned to Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, asking the United Nations "to take all measures to support the efforts of the Arab League to resolve the critical situation in Syria" (Blair, David). The consistent and combined pressures of these two organizations will increase the likelihood of a democratic transition in Syria, and therefore should continue to be supported by the United States. 

            Conclusion:

              In order to successfully ensure that the Syrian government ends all violence against political opponents and allows for a peaceful and consensual democratic transition, the Obama administration must continue to support the Syrian opposition, the Syrian National Council. The Syrian National Council should also be supervised by the Obama administration in order to guarantee that all Syrians are treated equally under the law, and that political representation is extended equally to all Syrians. By backing the Syrian National Council, the Obama administration is creating an opportunity for the rest of the international community to recognize its legitimacy, ultimately undermining the legitimacy of the Assad regime. Isolating the Assad regime and applying international pressure to the Syrian government by means of the Arab League and the United Nations is a path that the United States should continue to take. The Obama administration should attempt to avoid military confrontation with Syria at all costs, but should continue strict economic and diplomatic sanctions to weaken the Assad regime. The removal of the American ambassador to Damascus, Robert S. Ford is a significant step towards diplomatically isolating the Syrian regime (Shadid, Anthony). Finally, the cooperation of the Arab League and the United Nations should be commended by the United States in order to increase the likelihood of a peaceful democratic transition in Syria that does not require foreign intervention to accomplish.  

     Works Cited

Blair, David. "Arab League Calls for UN Help over Syria." The Telegraph. The

Telegraph Media Group Limited, 24 Nov. 2011. Web. 25 Nov. 2011. <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8914051/Arab-League-calls-for-UN-help-over-Syria.html>.

Krause-Jackson, Flavia. "UN Resolution Condemns Syria Abuses With Arab Backing."

Bloomberg. Bloomberg L.P., 22 Nov. 2011. Web. 25 Nov. 2011. <http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-22/un-resolution-condemns-syria-abuses-with-arab-backing-correct-.html>.

MacFarquhar, Neil. "Arab League Punishes Syria Over Violent Crackdown." The New

York Times. The New York Times Company, 27 Nov. 2011. Web. 27 Nov. 2011. <http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/28/world/middleeast/arab-league-prepares-to-vote-on-syrian-sanctions.html?hp#>.

Obama, Barack. "Obama's Statement on Syria." Speech. Council on Foreign Relations.

The Council on Foreign Relations, 18 Aug. 2011. Web. Sept. 2011. <http://www.cfr.org/syria/obamas-statement-syria-august-2011/p25659>.

Oweis, Khaled Y. "Assad Holds Syria Army despite Sunni-Alawite Divide." Reuters.

Thomson Reuters, 6 Apr. 2011. Web. 12 Nov. 2011. <http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/06/us-syria-army-idUSTRE73543X20110406>.

Oweis, Khaled Y. "Syria's National Council Unveils Post-Assad Plans." Reuters.

Thomson Reuters, 21 Nov. 2011. Web. 22 Nov. 2011. <http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/21/idINIndia-60641920111121>.

Rodham Clinton, Hillary. "Arab League Suspends Syria." Speech. Remarks by Secretary

Clinton: November 2011. Washington DC. U.S. Department of State. The Office of Electronic Information, Bureau of Public Affairs, 12 Nov. 2011. Web. 12 Nov. 2011. <http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2011/11/177044.htm>.

Shadid, Anthony. "U.S. Ambassador to Syria Leaves Damascus Amid Threats to Safety."

The New York Times. The New York Times Company, 24 Oct. 2011. Web. 11 Nov. 2011. <http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/world/middleeast/us-ambassador-to-syria-leaves-damascus-amid-threats-to-safety.html>.

SNC. "Syrian National Council (SNC)." FP - Foreign Policy. Foreign Policy. Web. 20

Nov. 2011. <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/files/fp_uploaded_documents/110916_About%20SNC.pdf>.

Watson, Ivan. "Syrian Activists Form a 'National Council'" CNN. Cable News Network,

24 Aug. 2011. Web. 7 Nov. 2011. <http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/08/23/syria.un.resolution/index.html?eref=mrss_igoogle_cnn>.