Hostile drones have been winding their way across the Russian landscape this winter, striking refineries and related oil and gas infrastruct
Russia makes money primarily off of fossil fuels. It does have decent agricultural exports but those alone could not pay for Putin's war machine. So disrupting Russia's oil and gas industry is a way of reducing the country's revenue which allows it to conduct an illegal war of aggression.
Hostile drones have been winding their way across the Russian landscape this winter, striking refineries and related oil and gas infrastructure all the way from the Baltic Sea in the northwest to the Black Sea in the southwest. Drones attacked both the Ilsky and Afipsky refineries in Russia's Krasnodar region, east of occupied Crimea, on Feb. 9, less than a week after another refinery in Volgograd, the largest in southern Russia, was hit. Further attacks have struck other refineries and oil depots near the Ukrainian border, as well as much deeper into Russian territory. Though Ukraine does not typically confirm its actions outside its borders and Russia has not officially acknowledged drones were the cause of these incidents, media reports have identified Kyiv's hand in the attacks occurring with regularity as Moscow's invasion of Ukraine nears the two-year mark. Analysts say the drone attacks are demonstrating that oil and gas targets of economic significance are not out of reach, even far from the front lines of the war.
The late Sen. John McCain nailed it.
Late U.S. Senator John McCain once derisively described Russia as being "a gas station masquerading as a country" — a jibe underlining the critical importance of oil and gas products to Moscow. Indeed, Russia draws heavily on its resource reserves to support the state. The International Energy Agency says Russia's oil and gas export revenues accounted for 45 per cent of its federal budget in 2021.
Of course a lot of that fossil fuel money gets siphoned off by corrupt oligarchs who use it to purchase superyachts and expensive real estate in Western countries.
A January attack on a Novatek facility in Ust-Luga halted gas processing operations there for several weeks. The plant processes gas condensate into various fuel products that are exported to customers in Turkey and Asia, according to Reuters. Sergey Vakulenko, a former strategy executive at Gazprom Neft, a subsidiary of the larger Russian energy firm, believes the Ust-Luga episode may illustrate a bigger problem for Russia than a temporary disruption to production at a single facility. In a recent analysis published online, Vakulenko reasoned that if small drones can get all the way to Ust-Luga, which is hundreds of kilometres from the Ukrainian border, there are some 18 Russian refineries at risk of being targeted, and they account for more than half the country's refinery production. He's not the only analyst noticing this concern for Russia's refineries.
And because hundreds of thousands of competent Russians have (wisely) fled the country and others are being used as cannon fodder for Putin's war, it takes longer to repair facilities damaged by Ukraine.
And the fossil fuel industry mostly has to fend for itself.
Maxim Starchak, an independent expert on the Russian defence and nuclear industry, says regulations have been put in place to restrict drones from flying close to "the most significant fuel and energy sector facilities" and operators are using electronic warfare systems to defend against drone threats. But Starchak said Russian energy firms must foot the bill for expenses related to defence of their facilities. "Moscow will not specifically help," he said, noting Russian authorities may hold firms accountable for not putting measures in place to protect their facilities.
So that burden cuts down on revenue as it adds to the cost of doing business.
One thing Ukraine has been innovative at is drone technology. It's become one of the world's leaders at that.
As Ukraine continues to fight to repel Russian forces from its lands, its military leaders have signalled drones and related technology will be needed to win the war that seems to have no end in sight.
And Western countries find it easier to provide additional drones to Ukraine than to send tanks and cruise missiles.
So Russian convict troops can luxuriate in the ruins of Avdiivka while their oil refineries back home get blown up by Ukraine.
EDIT: Speaking of fuel, just saw this at NPR.
Putin's regime is 'running out of fuel,' a Russian opposition activist tells NPR
