Quad rant #052: In which pertains to the state of this country... and this is gonna be a long-ass post...
Brexiters better not complain about the economic turmoil to come because quite frankly turmoil is what they’ve voted for.
It’s given momentum for another Scottish independence referendum campaign. This is expected since the entirety of the Scottish people voting were predominantly remainers.
It’s also given momentum for some Irish parties to push for a United Ireland rather than remain part of the UK, since Northern Ireland was more split (Belfast was leave, but majority of the rural places were remain and the country had a majority remain), and if this union falls apart and we’re just left with England and Wales then there is fuck all chance of having near as much international influence as we had before.
This country no longer exists in the past, it no longer has the mercantile might that help fund conquests of empire and expansion. It is no longer the foremost economic and military power. It has deindustrialised, it is based on an export of services and imports of goods. London is the financial centre of the world, but that requires the UK to be within the EU to be the most effective. The loss of that would destroy a colossal amount of the GDP of the country. Yes the UK is London centric but London also contributes a shit load to the economy as a whole, blame centralisation for that unbalanced system. We no longer manufacture as much stuff as before. Therefore to be most effective we need a strong pound to make imports cheap. We import more than we export. A weakened pound, like what we’ve now got since it dropped 10% of it’s value overnight, the most a currency has ever done in such a period, will mean inflation, will mean prices going up, will mean having to raise interest rates to prevent inflation going out of control.
We are now in what are volatile and turbulent times ahead as this country now has to adjust to the prospect of going it alone and I doubt this country will come out of it in one piece. If Scotland leaves, they will wish to stay within the EU. That will also mean accepting free movement, one of the reasons that England wished to leave. Therein becomes a dilemma since we will either have to accept free movement like Switzerland has done, to retain access to the common market (thus wiping out a reason why we left), or consider the possibility of border controls with Ireland and Scotland, something that no one would like to see occur. Trade deals can take a long time to form, and with the need for compromises. The EU has provided the UK with compromises and opt-outs, such as Schengen, such as the Euro. To get access to the free-market, we will have to compromise far more than the EU would have to, to us.
The immediate effects will be market volatility and economic uncertainty. I don’t expect the current migrants that live here will be deported overnight. They’ll be probably given indefinite leave to remain, otherwise it will just fuck everything up even more than leaving has. Likewise I don’t expect the 1.5 million British migrants abroad will be all of a sudden evicted. The status of these will probably be decided during the negotiations.
Ultimately though, this also is the consequence of the failure of Westminster politicians to understand and properly address the concerns of their constituents. The remain campaign was based more on fear of leaving rather than the pros of remaining. The leave campaign, whilst bending the truth on a large number of matters, used the populist rhetoric of fear more than the remain camp. It has been subsequent governments failure to manage migration effectively and dispel fears about the EU, and a failure of promoting the best of what the EU has offered us.
Many people in England might regard the SNP slightly negatively but I for one can at least recognise that their politicians understand the Scottish electorate more than the British MPs understand theirs. The remain campaign was poorly fought and was split down party lines. Austerity had little to do with this.
What has become evident is divisions in the country. Just like the Scottish indyref, the country has failed to address them. It has been trapped in complacency over matters. It has failed to act upon discontent and discord. It has failed to strengthen the ties that bind. Yes, these are worst-case scenarios, but this country needs to be prepared to deal with that if it is gonna come out of this with any prospect towards the future. The worst-case scenario being that it drops out of the G8 and that will be a massive reputation hit.
Brexit support has been underestimated. It seems obvious to say so now but living in an area of the country where 69% of the turnout voted leave where the
Brexit support seemed more vocal, probably offered more of an insight that my area would’ve gone that way. That said I was hoping that the remain support would’ve been stronger in other areas enough to provide enough to support status quo, i.e. remaining in the EU. This is just as much of an establishment problem and it would be nice if our politicians could understand that instead of blaming the other parties for it. You can’t blame David Cameron for offering a referendum to the people. The people do deserve a say after all. You can blame him, Corbyn and the other parties for not doing more to keep us in, like sharing a platform. Labour have failed to address their own issues. The party is having an identity crisis at the moment, it doesn’t know whether to move left or right. It has failed to address growing UKIP support in working class areas.
The biggest threat to Labour is not the Tories, it is populism, but then English people haven’t always seen themselves as European either, not least because over the past 2000 years this country has been at war in some capacity or other with the rest of the world. Even despite European identity not being strong in England as it is with the rest of Europe (we are the least likely to identify as European after all), I saw our future as being with Europe.
Given that it has also re-emphasised the generation gap. There have been young eurosceptics. There are people my age that voted leave. Even then the majority of young adults and teens are pro to staying in. They may not like how the EU functions, but they think that we can’t reform it and push it in the direction it needs to go from the outside, that it needs us to help it or they see the United States of Europe as an inevitability, and that being outside of that would see us sidelined on the world stage. I feel that eventually Europe will manage to become one country, and as humanity develops enough to start tearing down borders and divisions, the planet would eventually united to be one country with one democratic world government. In a world of growing globalisation, this country cannot stand alone.
Meanwhile the older generation are more eurosceptic than the rest of us, largely because they live in the past, where they’re bitter that the world has changed and they haven’t kept up with that change, or they’ve squandered the opportunities they had and will moan and shaft anyone to try and get it back. A lot of them will not have to deal with these consequences. It is the younger generations that will have to pick up any mess and clear up the shit and it does seem unfair that 16 year olds have not been able to have their own say in their future, when in Scotland they were allowed their say on independence. It is clear that Scotland will see it’s future as being in the EU and out of the UK.
There are further ramifications to this, other than complete unravelling and reversal of the Acts of Union. It will fuel support for the Front National in France who will use this to springboard support for France to break out. It will fuel support for Lega Nord and the Five Star Movement in Italy. Europe has already seen an unfortunate lurch towards the right and this could fuel it. France and Germany have national elections next year. It took some tactical voting from the UMP and the PS in France to keep the Front National from garnering more support in their legislative elections as before. I fear that won’t be as effective next year when France goes to the polls. AfD seems to have been gaining more support as well. The migrant crisis that has gripped the EU certainly hasn’t helped. It has fuelled xenophobic sentiments. The future of the EU rests on what relationship the leftovers of the UK can secure and what occurs in those elections. Any outcomes in those similar to those that have led us to leaving could mean the end of the European Union and that could undo a lot of the work Europe has done to move closer together and cooperate rather than the two millennia of warring that has gone on since the fall of the Roman Empire.
I’ll admit I’m a soft-eurosceptic. I see the European Union has having many issues, such as an unfathomable political system but I see Britain being stronger with in it than outside it. Issues were able to be resolved. Reform would’ve been difficult but possible. The EU, with enough persuasion, could function as a unit. This country has never ran away from what it doesn’t know until now. For what it is worth (if it was obvious until now), I was one of the 46,922 people in my area who voted remain. Not much chance against the 104,620 twats (of which three include my family) who voted leave.
People have had their say. Doesn’t mean I agree with it. Doesn’t mean I like it. Doesn’t mean I don’t regard them as twats... We’ve become a country characterised by fear and hate, of racism and xenophobia.
Quite frankly, I don’t see this as a brave step into the unknown but rather a dive off Beachy Head. I sometimes despair for the future of this country, more so now than before. I’ve never felt so much disillusionment with the direction of Britain and I’ve never felt more disillusionment at being English as I have now...
